Russia has invaded Ukraine

Originally Posted by Mick

A small nuclear attack in Ukraine could still cause nuclear fallout on neighbouring countries, in NATO, so Putin ought to know, he orders a strike in Ukraine, he’s just attacked a NATO country, by proxy.

Do they care?

I think this conflict has shown people overestimated Russia's military capability and Putin's strategic mind but I think we also overestimated Putin's pragmatism.

We assume Putin is smart enough not to escalate this war into something that could threaten Russia itself but his actions so far have not shown someone who is thinking clearly or strategically. He could quite possibly actually be ill and not of a sound mind. Worse of all, I am not sure he'll distinguish between an existential threat to himself and that of Russia. If this war goes so badly he faces a threat to his position from the even more hawkish element of the Kremlin then he may well feel forced to act on it.

The fact that what criticism is coming out from Russia isn't about the invasion itself but the military failure also suggests that escalation rather than de-escalation is Putin's only option.

I am not arguing that we need to pull back from support for the Ukraine war, we cannot allow a precedent of nuclear threats allowing Russia to invade where they like. We have to press on regardless. I just think we're underpricing the threat here and that we need to remember however illogical an escalation might seem that oftentimes in history people are boxed into their paths by other forces.

We're set on this path because we cannot allow Russia to annex countries and threaten nuclear war to maintain that land. Putin is set on the path because domestic forces don't allow him to withdraw gracefully from this conflict.

[OLD BOY]

A good summary, Damien.

NEW: From Kyiv Independent Defence Reporter, Illia Ponomarenko:

Good lord, Russian front is apparently collapsing in the south.
I just can’t keep up with reports on newly-liberated towns coming every other hour.

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by Mick

A small nuclear attack in Ukraine could still cause nuclear fallout on neighbouring countries, in NATO, so Putin ought to know, he orders a strike in Ukraine, he’s just attacked a NATO country, by proxy.

I don't think a lot of people understand that a "small nuclear" attack would use whats feferred as "Low yield tactical nuclear weapons. The smallest being about the equivalent of one of the bombs dropped on Japan.

Meanwhile.

It's a dog-eat-dog world in the Russian army: the Telegram channel Baza reports that the newly mobilised troops have been fighting off attempts by existing contract soldiers to rob them.
In a military unit near Moscow, contract servicemen wanted to take away some of the mobilised men's equipment and telephones. This did not work: the newcomers simply beat up the "oldtimers".

Full translation: https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/stat...58010790129665

[pip08456]

Well this is a bit of a bummer.

Mobilised men from Omsk are complaining that they are not being paid. The regional authorities have admitted they do not have enough money to pay them, according to reports...

...The regional governor, Alexander Burkov, says he has a 12 billion ruble budget deficit: "We still don't understand what we are going to pay salaries with. And, of course, this problem [with the lack of funds for lump sum payments] is very painful .

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/stat...00132404625409

Russian GRU (special forces) had their ar5ses handed to them by Ukraine at Lyman. Russia claims the loss of the city was down to local volunteers from the so-called Luhansk People’s Republic, but this rather well researched piece by the BBC’s Russian service shows otherwise:

https://www-bbc-com.translate.goog/r...en&_x_tr_hl=en

(Original report is in Russian, this link is to the Google translation)

[pip08456]

And it just gets wore.

When COVID meets mobilisation: newly mobilised Russian soldiers attached to the 2nd Guards Motor Rifle Division have contracted COVID-19 en masse and are now locked in a train for quarantine, without medical care or ventilation.

Well worth reading the thread.

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/stat...32200824061952

Historian Timothy Snyder on how the Ukraine war might end, and why a nuclear detonation is still extremely unlikely:

https://snyder.substack.com/p/how-do...ign=auto_share

War is ultimately about politics. That Ukraine is winning on the battlefield matters because Ukraine is exerting pressure on Russian politics. Tyrants such as Putin exert a certain fascination, because they give the impression that they can do what they like. This is not true, of course; and their regimes are deceptively brittle. The war ends when Ukrainian military victories alter Russian political realities, a process which I believe has begun.

LATEST Ukraine Update: Thousands of Putin's troops 'call Ukrainian surrender hotline' - as Russian front line 'begins to collapse' - Sky News.

He’s cocked this up good and proper and it’s delicious

[daveeb]

Originally Posted by Mick

LATEST Ukraine Update: Thousands of Putin's troops 'call Ukrainian surrender hotline' - as Russian front line 'begins to collapse' - Sky News.

He’s cocked this up good and proper and it’s delicious

Definitely this. I thought until recently Putin was bad but sane, now I'm beginning to think he's bad and mad. He's beginning to make Lord Raglan (ordered charge of the Light Brigade) look like a master tactician.

Originally Posted by daveeb

Definitely this. I thought until recently Putin was bad but sane, now I'm beginning to think he's bad and mad. He's beginning to make Lord Raglan (ordered charge of the Light Brigade) look like a master tactician.

I think the problem is that people/advisors are terrified of giving him factual accurate information (so he could make informed decisions), which because the facts don’t align with what he thinks should be happening, could lead to their defenestration through a handy casement…

[daveeb]

Originally Posted by Hugh

I think the problem is that people/advisors are terrified of giving him factual accurate information (so he could make informed decisions), which because the facts don’t align with what he thinks should be happening, could lead to their defenestration through a handy casement…

It does seem to happen alarmingly frequently, probably best to live on the ground floor if you fall out with Putin. (Although he does have quite an extensive portfolio of other exotic assassination methods).

It's Putin's 70th birthday today.I'm hoping he's going senile and his mates might just throw him a birthday experience

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https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/s...7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Ukraine drops the Kerch Bridge:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63183404

A significant logistical blow to the Russian army, an absolutely massive personal blow to Putin, who made so much of the bridge’s symbolism when he personally opened it in 2018.

The Road section has completely collapsed, while the rail section has been extensively damaged by fire.

---------- Post added at 10:49 ---------- Previous post was at 10:35 ----------

A video of the explosion, apparently taken from CCTV: https://twitter.com/liveuamap/status...42KksFWco8VugA

It was absolutely massive.

---------- Post added at 11:06 ---------- Previous post was at 10:49 ----------

Update, from photos it appears one side of the dual carriageway has collapsed in two places and the other side is damaged but still standing.

A fire on the rail section was fed by burning fuel from a tanker train that was passing at the time. How the Ukrainians timed that is anyone’s guess. The rail line has not collapsed but an intense fuel fire is going to have done some serious damage to the metalwork.

[pip08456]

Next an attack towards the Black Sea via Melitopol to cut the land bridge and leave the south isolated without any resupply?