Russia has invaded Ukraine

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by Chris

That’s not saying the same thing at all.

In the guardian item from February, Russia’s invasion force assembly on the Ukrainian border is 70% complete. Today, the US’s assessment is that Russia has deployed 70-75% of its entire functional military strength to Ukraine. Lying behind that statistic is the emerging truth that just because Russia claims to have a million men in uniform and a gazillion tanks, it does not follow that all of them are in any fit state to go to war.

OK let's go with repots after the invasion then and before todays "breaking news"

I could probably find ealrier assessments but can't be bothered. Anyone actually following it will have seen them.

March 17, 2022 10:30 AM


An unidentified U.S. “senior defense official” offered another briefing yesterday and made an eye-popping assessment of how much of Russia’s overall military is devoted to the invasion of Ukraine:

We haven’t seen any indications that anything is moving right now outside of what they have already in Ukraine. But we know they said that they are suffering losses everyday losses of people, losses of equipment, losses of aircraft. And so, it certainly stands to reason that they would want to be exploring options to replenish those losses. Again, just haven’t seen an indication.

And as for, you know, how much of his total military that he has dedicated to this fight? We would estimate it’s around 75 percent of his total military committed to the fight in Ukraine.

My bold but shows it is not a new assessment.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corne...ry-to-ukraine/

BTW, this is different from this report on 28th Feb.

Earlier on Monday a senior US defense official said that it is their assessment Russia has committed nearly 75% of its military power that it had arrayed around Ukraine ahead of the invasion.

The official said they were concerned with the “risks that come with a lack of Russian progress” especially the “use of rockets today and tube artillery — in Kyiv and Kharkiv — which risks being far more indiscriminate.”

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-...7ad4b355aec8b9

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by pip08456

Makes you wonder what the future has to hold for us. Fear of a Nuclear war will only allow Putin to get away with whatever he wants. When will that fear end. Not something I'd like to decide on.

Well this was my issue, and I admit I was of the opinion that a Russian victory, or a surrender on Russian terms was the inevitable outcome, but in the last several days my opinion is changing.

Listening to several expert views on this, that say that Putin is not mad, and certainly not suicidal, and that a nuclear exchange is really not on the cards, whatever the outcome.

It also looks like now Russia won’t/can’t win, and they are now looking for a way out with a weakened negotiation position.

It looks like, although the West seemed passive after the Crimean invasion, they weren’t and they have trained and armed Ukraine for this eventually.

This is truly amazing on geo-political scale. I witnessed the fall of the Soviet Union, I may well witness the fall of Russia as a meaningful world power.

They really are and should be a world power, but not under Putin.

Originally Posted by pip08456

OK let's go with repots after the invasion then and before todays "breaking news"

I could probably find ealrier assessments but can't be bothered. Anyone actually following it will have seen them.



My bold but shows it is not a new assessment.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corne...ry-to-ukraine/

BTW, this is different from this report on 28th Feb.



https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-...7ad4b355aec8b9

So known a couple of weeks ago then. Fair enough - I’m following enough of the academic commentary on Twatter to understand that there has been rather too much fetishising of Russia’s supposed military might, and that those whose reputations rest on predictions of a two-day war are still, even now, pushing the narrative that grandmaster Putin is about to invade Odessa and encircle the Ukrainian army in the southeast. There has been much reluctance amongst many of the talking heads favoured by the news media to acknowledge that their received wisdom might just be wrong. But even the academic experts who have been cautioning us not to assume it’s all going to go Russia’s way are expressing surprise at just how much Russia has thrown at Ukraine and how little it’s gained.

[RichardCoulter]

Originally Posted by Chris

So known a couple of weeks ago then. Fair enough - I’m following enough of the academic commentary on Twatter to understand that there has been rather too much fetishising of Russia’s supposed military might, and that those whose reputations rest on predictions of a two-day war are still, even now, pushing the narrative that grandmaster Putin is about to invade Odessa and encircle the Ukrainian army in the southeast. There has been much reluctance amongst many of the talking heads favoured by the news media to acknowledge that their received wisdom might just be wrong. But even the academic experts who have been cautioning us not to assume it’s all going to go Russia’s way are expressing surprise at just how much Russia has thrown at Ukraine and how little it’s gained.

Yes, one good thing to come out of it is that we now know that the Russian army isn't as strong as was thought. A report yesterday said that they were using rifles from the 1940's!

I wonder who will pay to rebuild Ukraine if a resolution is agreed? Russia? Ukraine? Donations from other countries?

I know that it should be Russua, but if they refuse, I don't think that this would prevent the peace that Ukraine want.

Originally Posted by RichardCoulter

Yes, one good thing to come out of it is that we now know that the Russian army isn't as strong as was thought. A report yesterday said that they were using rifles from the 1940's!

I wonder who will pay to rebuild Ukraine if a resolution is agreed? Russia? Ukraine? Donations from other countries?

I know that it should be Russua, but if they refuse, I don't think that this would prevent the peace that Ukraine want.

Russia is fecked … its military is diminished and its economy is in the toilet. It’s going to have precious few resources to rebuild itself, let alone another country.

However, it is going to be better all round if western countries and their industries handle the rebuilding. Nothing will more completely seal Russia’s humiliation than watching Ukraine being rebuilt as an unabashed western democracy with western values and western materials.

Originally Posted by pip08456

Fear of a Nuclear war will only allow Putin to get away with whatever he wants.

Given the poor state of his military and their equipment so far, hes probably afriad his missiles will explode on the launchpad.

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by Paul

Given the poor state of his military and their equipment so far, hes probably afriad his missiles will explode on the launchpad.

They're shooting their own planes down now apparently, oh and there is talk of a mutiny

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by RichardCoulter

Yes, one good thing to come out of it is that we now know that the Russian army isn't as strong as was thought. A report yesterday said that they were using rifles from the 1940's!

I wonder who will pay to rebuild Ukraine if a resolution is agreed? Russia? Ukraine? Donations from other countries?

I know that it should be Russua, but if they refuse, I don't think that this would prevent the peace that Ukraine want.

Russia should pay reparations in exchange for all sanctions being lifted.

---------- Post added at 07:50 ---------- Previous post was at 07:48 ----------

Originally Posted by Chris

Russia is fecked … its military is diminished and its economy is in the toilet. It’s going to have precious few resources to rebuild itself, let alone another country.

However, it is going to be better all round if western countries and their industries handle the rebuilding. Nothing will more completely seal Russia’s humiliation than watching Ukraine being rebuilt as an unabashed western democracy with western values and western materials.

Good point....Ukraine could join NATO to boot, just to rub the salt in.

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

They're shooting their own planes down now apparently, oh and there is talk of a mutiny

Source ?

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by Paul

Source ?

Sir Jeremy, the director of the UK's intelligence, cyber and security agency, used a speech in Australia to reveal that demoralised and undisciplined Russian soldiers were refusing to carry out orders, sabotaging their own equipment "and even accidentally shooting down their own aircraft".

Today's paywalled Torygraph.

[heero_yuy]

Same story in The Sun here

The eavesdroppers at GCHQ have picked up chatter of mutiny and discord in the ranks by intercepting phone calls, messages and emails.

[Carth]

I must admit to having a chuckle about Putin now wanting Russian gas to be bought with roubles into Russian banks, thought he'd pull this one much earlier

Seems a few countries aren't too happy, bit of a bugger eh, having to break a few sanctions or suffer a big shortage

[1andrew1]

Reports that Ukraine may have made its first strike into Russian territory. Could be Russian propaganda though.

Ukraine 'destroys fuel depot' in first airstrike on Russian territory

Further to reports we brought you earlier of a fire in Belgorod (see 6.30 post), it now appears the cause was an airstrike by Ukrainian helicopters on a fuel depot in the city.

This is of particular significance as the attack would represents the first time Ukraine's forces had crossed the border for an airstrike in Russia since the conflict began - and would be widely seen as a humiliation for Moscow.

See 07.55 at https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-l...nobyl-12541713

[Jaymoss]

Russia looking for reasons to escalate to dodgier weapons if you ask me

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Jaymoss

Russia looking for reasons to escalate to dodgier weapons if you ask me

Except, that would not be an excuse.

Sooner or later, Putin will have to give in and the longer he persists with this warped idea of taking over Ukraine, the more embarrassing that climb down will become.

I dare say that after the attack by Ukraine (if it was, in fact, by them) and with Putin’s overactive imagination, he may be thinking that Ukraine wants to take over Russia. Now there’s a thought.