Russia has invaded Ukraine

Originally Posted by RichardCoulter

Looking like Ukrainia won't be allowed to join Nato as, if they did and Russia invaded them, other countries (including us) would be obliged to come to their defence.

For some reason we don't want to do that, either because, even with America, we are not confident in winning any war with Russia or Ukrania is regarded as being worth sacrificing in order to avoid any military conflict ie loss of life etc. I'm not sure which.

A war between the USA and Russia is a war between two nuclear powers. Such things are avoided carefully. This is why Biden wouldn’t even send an evacuation plane to Kiev in the event of an invasion; if it or its crew were caught even in the crossfire things could escalate badly.

Ironically Ukraine’s membership of NATO is I think more likely now than ever. The Russians arguably already made it easier by occupying Crimea where they have long had a major naval base that, prior to 2014, would have been subject to some very awkward negotiations had Ukraine joined the western alliance. They have also created the very clear impression that Ukraine is at risk of invasion making a mutual defence pact more desirable.

Once Ukraine is in NATO, the military door really is slammed shut on Putin. Western troops move in and risking their lives risks direct confrontation. Again, this is avoided carefully. It’s why the Cold War stayed cold. If Ukraine joins, then Putin is left trying to interfere with the politics of the country so as to bring about a Russian friendly administration that might take it out of NATO again.

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by Chris

A war between the USA and Russia is a war between two nuclear powers. Such things are avoided carefully. This is why Biden wouldn’t even send an evacuation plane to Kiev in the event of an invasion; if it or its crew were caught even in the crossfire things could escalate badly.

Ironically Ukraine’s membership of NATO is I think more likely now than ever. The Russians arguably already made it easier by occupying Crimea where they have long had a major naval base that, prior to 2014, would have been subject to some very awkward negotiations had Ukraine joined the western alliance. They have also created the very clear impression that Ukraine is at risk of invasion making a mutual defence pact more desirable.

Once Ukraine is in NATO, the military door really is slammed shut on Putin. Western troops move in and risking their lives risks direct confrontation. Again, this is avoided carefully. It’s why the Cold War stayed cold. If Ukraine joins, then Putin is left trying to interfere with the politics of the country so as to bring about a Russian friendly administration that might take it out of NATO again.

I read somewhere that a country can't join NATO if it's borders are in dispute .

[spiderplant]

Originally Posted by papa smurf

I read somewhere that a country can't join NATO if it's borders are in dispute .

There wouldn't be many NATO members left if that applied

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...orial_disputes
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._United_States

Originally Posted by papa smurf

I read somewhere that a country can't join NATO if it's borders are in dispute .

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_49212.htm

countries seeking NATO membership would have to be able to demonstrate that they have fulfilled certain requirements. These include:

- a functioning democratic political system based on a market economy;
- the fair treatment of minority populations;
- a commitment to the peaceful resolution of conflicts;
- the ability and willingness to make a military contribution to NATO operations; and
- a commitment to democratic civil-military relations and institutional structures.

Once admitted, new members would enjoy all the rights and assume all the obligations of membership. This would include acceptance at the time that they join of all the principles, policies and procedures previously adopted by Alliance members.

[Carth]

- the fair treatment of minority populations;
- a commitment to the peaceful resolution of conflicts;

Yet the United States are in

Originally Posted by Carth

Yet the United States are in

For prospective members only…

[Hom3r]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Aye aye!

Six Typhoons bimbling about Lincolnshire/Yorkshire at the moment…



Two just above Boston, and the other four near/above and to the right of York.

https://www.flightradar24.com/53.25,-0.89/8

Military aircraft don't show up on this app.

Originally Posted by Hom3r

Military aircraft don't show up on this app.

They do, except when they don’t want to.

(Edit). Here’s one passing through:

Originally Posted by Hom3r

Military aircraft don't show up on this app.

The six delta-wing symbols were Typhoons, and when you clicked on them you got their flight paths, call signs, etc.

Here’s a RAF Apache doing circuits…

[Pierre]

I have it on my phone and like to check what’s flying over when I’m out walking. A few times I’ve seen private jets at fairly low level fly over without an active transponder and often wondered what shady character is on board that!

Russia moving troops into ‘attack areas’ near Ukraine, minister warns

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/0...89b205a723ea76

Russian troops have moved from holding areas to “more aggressive launch areas”, the defence secretary has warned.

Speaking at Nato headquarters in Brussels, Ben Wallace said that the number of Russian troops was increasing in “key areas” and he had seen no evidence of a withdrawal.

He told Times Radio that the build-up was in a different direction than the public messaging. “We saw some movement of Russian military forces from sort of holding areas to more front-footed deployed areas. I’ve been a soldier . . . you don’t deploy strategic weapons systems, you don’t build field hospitals, if you’re just going for a training exercise.”

[Hom3r]

Originally Posted by Pierre

I have it on my phone and like to check what’s flying over when I’m out walking. A few times I’ve seen private jets at fairly low level fly over without an active transponder and often wondered what shady character is on board that!

No transponders generally mean military

Originally Posted by Hom3r

No transponders generally mean military

They have transponders, but with the ability to switch them off…

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Pierre

I'll stick my neck out, and say I bet it doesn't.

It didn’t!

Any other predictions from anyone?

[Sephiroth]

Putin's got everyone dancing to his tune, especially Biden. You gotta admire Putin.