Coronavirus

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Paul

I've now seen "studies" that say it is, and others that say it isnt ... so take your pick.

I suppose the best part is none seem to say its worse.

The difficulties for most studies are that most populations will have different combinations of immunity.

All the different types of vaccines, some boosted, some not. Different variants of infection, infection plus vaccine, etc.

There’s even dispute as to whether the order of infection plus vaccine matters.

[nffc]

Originally Posted by jfman

The difficulties for most studies are that most populations will have different combinations of immunity.

All the different types of vaccines, some boosted, some not. Different variants of infection, infection plus vaccine, etc.

There’s even dispute as to whether the order of infection plus vaccine matters.

Provided that previous immunity (boosted or not, having covid before) keeps people out of hospital, then it doesn't really matter as much.


They have usually focused on hospital capacity when deciding what to do, don't see why this should be any different.


It still seems to be the case that the unvaccinated are worst off, which is not entirely surprising.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Jaymoss

I think with how it appears to be spreading the numbers in the New Year could be quite horriffic. Guess all we can do is wait and see

Supposed to double every two days isn’t it, that hasn’t happened.

We’re testing on average 600,000 people a day more than we were a week ago. So numbers are bound to go up even without Omicron.

Deaths are down and been declining since the end of Oct

Hospitalisations have plateaued and not risen above Sep and Oct highs as yet.

It’s 3 weeks since the first reported cases of Omicron in the U.K.

If they’re not clogging up the hospital corridors by Christmas Eve, I think it’s safe to assume they won’t be any other time in the future.

[mrmistoffelees]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Supposed to double every two days isn’t it, that hasn’t happened.

We’re testing on average 600,000 people a day more than we were a week ago. So numbers are bound to go up even without Omicron.

Deaths are down and been declining since the end of Oct

Hospitalisations have plateaued and not risen above Sep and Oct highs as yet.

It’s 3 weeks since the first reported cases of Omicron in the U.K.

If they’re not clogging up the hospital corridors by Christmas Eve, I think it’s safe to assume they won’t be any other time in the future.

So far there’s a 28% increase in hospital admissions in London week on week, I think it’s more likely New Year’s Eve we need to be looking at.

[jfman]

It’ll take longer than Christmas Eve for hospitals to fill there’s very little safe about that assumption. Individual days of admissions will creep up but it’s only when there’s sustained growth over weeks that’ll happen.

3 Cobra meetings this week, Rishi back with the chequebook and a weekend Cobra special. I’d expect more restrictions before hospitals collapse.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59696499

UK researchers have analysed the likely impact that a Covid booster shot will have on Omicron and say it could provide around 85% protection against severe illness.

.....protection against severe disease from Omicron may be around 80 to 85.9%, compared to around 97% for Delta - the other variant that is currently dominant in the UK.

Obviously 86% is not as good as 97%, but its still damn good, and better than 0%.

However, there are other parts of the immune system, such as T cells, that can fight Covid too. The modelling could not assess the impact of these.

Originally Posted by Pierre

Supposed to double every two days isn’t it, that hasn’t happened.

That was never going to happen for very long.
At that rate it would soon run out of people to infect.

Looking at the governments covid site ;

* Deaths are still falling atm.

* Hospitalisations are starting to rise slightly.
-- They are still lower than Oct & Nov levels, and still nothing like last winter.

* Cases are rising (as also is testing).
-- The peak atm appears to have been Wednesday (incomplete data still atm).

Originally Posted by Pierre

Supposed to double every two days isn’t it, that hasn’t happened.

We’re testing on average 600,000 people a day more than we were a week ago. So numbers are bound to go up even without Omicron.

Deaths are down and been declining since the end of Oct

Hospitalisations have plateaued and not risen above Sep and Oct highs as yet.

It’s 3 weeks since the first reported cases of Omicron in the U.K.

If they’re not clogging up the hospital corridors by Christmas Eve, I think it’s safe to assume they won’t be any other time in the future.

Every two to three days, was the original estimate.

In today’s Times - going from around 500 cases per day to over 10,000 cases per seems a fairly rapid growth rate in one week…

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c...read-2w05d0rwl

[Jaymoss]

There is a hell of a lot of people taking tests though so it stands to reason more cases will be found. But it is an horrendous infection rate

my butt will keep twitching till the middle of Jan when we will know the true danger of omicron

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Jaymoss

There is a hell of a lot of people taking tests though so it stands to reason more cases will be found. But it is an horrendous infection rate

my butt will keep twitching till the middle of Jan when we will know the true danger of omicron

It's worth noting that testing is demand led. Based on symptoms, being a close contact or some other reason.

If 600,000 people just tested for entertainment value there's no reason to expect to get more positives than the ONS study. Conveniently, that's 1 in 60.

So it would impact the figures would be 10,000. Test positivity would drop.

As we reach testing capacity - people are unable to get tests online, in pharmacies, or book a PCR in a reasonable timeframe the usefulness of the data reduce. The ONS survey on the other hand will continue to reflect increases/decreases in prevalence due to it's model not relying on demand (or supply!).

[nffc]

Aren't people just stockpiling LFTs because
- the new guidance is that close contacts of cases do LFTs
- people are being suggested to do LFTs before going anywhere


As for PCR tests, well, with colds going around as well, and with omicron being milder and more common symptoms with colds, especially in vaccinated people, more people think they have covid (especially with more people getting it) so book a PCR test to be sure knowing LFTs may be incorrect.


It will eventually hit a ceiling as it runs out of people to infect whatever happens. Exponential growth will eventually stop.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by nffc

Aren't people just stockpiling LFTs because
- the new guidance is that close contacts of cases do LFTs
- people are being suggested to do LFTs before going anywhere

As for PCR tests, well, with colds going around as well, and with omicron being milder and more common symptoms with colds, especially in vaccinated people, more people think they have covid (especially with more people getting it) so book a PCR test to be sure knowing LFTs may be incorrect.

It will eventually hit a ceiling as it runs out of people to infect whatever happens. Exponential growth will eventually stop.

People stockpiling LFTs doesn't affect the reported figure. Whether the tests are in a box or up someone's nose that's capacity gone. New people have difficulty accessing tests - this does result in under-reporting or delayed reporting of cases.

Originally Posted by jfman

It's worth noting that testing is demand led.

Demand was suddenly driven up by the new round of fear factor.
Plus the [percieved] requirement to do daily tests if you have "contact" with someone positive.
[its not actually a requirement at all, just a 'strong' recommendation].

Result: The public go into panic mode again, and all the available LFTs vanish almost in a flash.

Originally Posted by jfman

Based on symptoms, being a close contact or some other reason.

So basically that covers any reason at all, even if that 'reason' is just "I felt like it".

Originally Posted by Jaymoss

There is a hell of a lot of people taking tests though so it stands to reason more cases will be found. But it is an horrendous infection rate

my butt will keep twitching till the middle of Jan when we will know the true danger of omicron

Testing has gone up by 50%, Omicron cases by 2,000%.

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Testing has gone up by 50%, Omicron cases by 2,000%.

How's the death rate with omicron doing percentage wise?

Originally Posted by papa smurf

How's the death rate with omicron doing percentage wise?

Death figures lag the infection figures by about 3 weeks. We won’t know how many people are dying with omicron until the end of the month.