Panic at the Pumps

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/b...nson-r38tckx3l

Spaceports from Cornwall to Shetland will launch rockets into orbit next year as Boris Johnson promises to create “galactic Britain”.

The prime minister insisted that Britain cannot remain “earthbound” and must seize leadership in the multi-billion-pound space industry.

Ah, the old "governments must only think of one thing at a time" argument ...

[Mr K]

The truth has slipped out....
https://metro.co.uk/2021/09/28/petro...isis-15329129/

Originally Posted by Mr K

The truth has slipped out....
https://metro.co.uk/2021/09/28/petro...isis-15329129/

Grant who ?

---------- Post added at 16:23 ---------- Previous post was at 16:23 ----------

Originally Posted by jfman

The media can’t take all of the blame when politicians stand up and say “don’t panic” then everyone thinks “panic”.

Yes they can, by the time politicians got involved, it was too late (the panic was already happening).

Originally Posted by Chris

Ah, the old "governments must only think of one thing at a time" argument ...

No, the old "dead cat" stratagem…

Also, he doesn’t know what he’s talking about (as a teenager, I was an Apollo mission fanatic).

He said

the plan would “create more jobs by putting rocket boosters the size of a Saturn V’s F1 under British space businesses”

The F1 was a rocket engine, not a booster (which usually refers to a stage), and there were five of them in the Saturn V first stage, and it was eighteen and a half feet in length.

Originally Posted by Mr K

The truth has slipped out....
https://metro.co.uk/2021/09/28/petro...isis-15329129/

Indeed it has.

‘Brexit I hear mentioned a lot and it no doubt will have been a factor.
‘On the other hand, it has actually helped us to change rules to be able to test more drivers more quickly.
‘So, it has actually worked in both ways.’

The figure I keep seeing at the moment is a shortfall of 100,000 drivers. I also keep seeing the industry admitting the number of EU drivers no longer working in the UK is only 16-20k. You don't have to be Einstein to see that Brexit is only responsible for around 16-20% of the problem, and in the absence of a global shortage and a pandemic-induced training delay wouldn't be causing any particularly noticeable problems at all. Funny, then, that for certain contributors on this board it's 100% of their obsession.

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by Paul

Yes they can, by the time politicians got involved, it was too late (the panic was already happening).

Correct, the media started it all.

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by Paul

Grant who ?.

Good question. He's the Secretary of State for Transport, apparently. I'd assumed the post must have been vacant...

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Paul

Grant who ?

---------- Post added at 16:23 ---------- Previous post was at 16:23 ----------


Yes they can, by the time politicians got involved, it was too late (the panic was already happening).

And if the Government had any credibility telling people not to panic would count for something. Similarly if people had faith that the Government could intervene for the purposes of alleviating any problems.

However the Government lacks credibility and almost nobody believes they could resolve the issue within a reasonable timeframe. Entirely rational actors are going out and topping up “just in case”.

Originally Posted by Chris

Indeed it has.



The figure I keep seeing at the moment is a shortfall of 100,000 drivers. I also keep seeing the industry admitting the number of EU drivers no longer working in the UK is only 16-20k. You don't have to be Einstein to see that Brexit is only responsible for around 16-20% of the problem, and in the absence of a global shortage and a pandemic-induced training delay wouldn't be causing any particularly noticeable problems at all. Funny, then, that for certain contributors on this board it's 100% of their obsession.

You’re absolutely right - but in the real world, those things happened, the noticeable problems did happen, but for certain contributors on this board it had nothing to do with it…

Originally Posted by Hugh

You’re absolutely right - but in the real world, those things happened, the noticeable problems did happen…

Indeed. But if 80% of the shortage is caused by the pandemic, plus historically poor working conditions and low pay, and 20% or less is attributable to EU drivers no longer working in the UK, why, I wonder, are some people so desperate to obsess over the 20% rather than the 80%?

Actually I don't really wonder. It seems pretty clear that the usual suspects are continuing to latch on to anything that feeds the false "Brexit crisis" narrative they can't seem to escape from.

[jonbxx]

Interestingly, some of the root of this problem is the end of the cold way funnily enough. In Germany, HGV drivers were trained almost exclusively as part of their National Service, basically lugging US, UK and German tanks all over the country to face down the Red Menace. Conscription finally finished 10 years ago with no real pipeline of new drivers to replace these military trained drivers.

Of course, these drivers are getting older, retiring, getting new jobs, etc. so Germany could either attract foreign drivers or train new ones. Foreign drivers from just over the border in Poland and further afield is of course the quick easy route. Offering better pay and conditions is why there's a bigger shortage in Poland. Of course, the UK attracted its share of drivers from the former Eastern Bloc too but many have left due to COVID and, ahem, other reasons.

Offering big pay to get some of these drivers back is one thing but if these visas we're offering are like other types of visa, there's a big cost associated with it. Visas to work in the UK can be up to £1000 plus a few hundred for the NHS surcharge. My american colleague pays £625 per year for access to the NHS despite being a UK taxpayer for example.

The government really, really doesn't want to go down the visa route though. That much is abundantly clear, and is why I think they've gone for a very short term concession. They've done enough to be able to go on the news and say they've done something, but they haven't really helped the industry. The expectation clearly is still that the industry gets its house in order and recognises the reality of supply and demand. Their demand must be met from domestic supply, and that means they're going to have to invest in the workforce instead of undercutting it.

I don't routinely scan the job vacancies newspaper pages but on the occasions when I have in the past, I have noticed that hauliers have routinely advertised for trained and time served drivers. Apprenticeship vacancies have for years been extremely rare, which is perhaps unsurprising when there's a good supply of relatively cheap, trained and mobile drivers available in Eastern Europe. The chickens are now, however, coming home to roost (even if they're not coming to your local supermarket).

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Chris

Indeed. But if 80% of the shortage is caused by the pandemic, plus historically poor working conditions and low pay, and 20% or less is attributable to EU drivers no longer working in the UK, why, I wonder, are some people so desperate to obsess over the 20% rather than the 80%?

Actually I don't really wonder. It seems pretty clear that the usual suspects are continuing to latch on to anything that feeds the false "Brexit crisis" narrative they can't seem to escape from.

Who are these shadowy usual suspects? For the avoidance of doubt, I've been clear it was a combination of things and cited the figures of 70k left the sector, 20k returned to Europe. But to deny that Brexit played a part as Ian Duncan Smith has done is foolish.
I've also quoted the Daily Mail which showed that other European countries have shortfalls in the HGV driver needs, but these were shown as far less than the UK's.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by jfman

And if the Government had any credibility telling people not to panic would count for something. Similarly if people had faith that the Government could intervene for the purposes of alleviating any problems.

However the Government lacks credibility and almost nobody believes they could resolve the issue within a reasonable timeframe. Entirely rational actors are going out and topping up “just in case”.

Quite right.