Coronavirus

[jonbxx]

This Brazilian variant seems to be like a 'cut and shut' of the UK and South African variants around the business parts of the spike (amino acids 400-600ish)

Here are the three compared - https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/s...75542097825792

Considering most of the vaccines out there work well against both the UK and South Africa types, I wouldn't panic just yet.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by jonbxx

This Brazilian variant seems to be like a 'cut and shut' of the UK and South African variants around the business parts of the spike (amino acids 400-600ish)

Here are the three compared - https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/s...75542097825792

Considering most of the vaccines out there work well against both the UK and South Africa types, I wouldn't panic just yet.

Interesting.
Which vaccines work well against both the UK and South African types?

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Interesting.
Which vaccines work well against both the UK and South African types?

All of the current ones, in the UK at least..

[Sephiroth]

You couldn't make it up - except in the perfidious and vindictive EU.
Here is the paywalled link plus a useful quote.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...aign=DM1343081

Thomas Mertens, the head of Germany’s Standing Committee on Vaccination (Stiko), said on Saturday that the country was likely to change its controversial guidelines against not to give the AstraZeneca vaccine to over 65s, saying errors had been made. Promising “a new, updated recommendation very soon”, Mertens said: “somehow the whole thing went very badly”.

Error upon compounded error. They are pig headed, self righteous and pompous.

Nice to see your even-handed comments on this.

They made an stupid error, realised it, and are correcting it - this is a common occurrence, not the end of earth or a massive conspiracy against the British.

The throbbing vein on your forehead must be a sight to behold....

"Pig headed, self righteous, and pompous" - oh, the irony...

[Hom3r]

I'm expecting delays in easing lockdown due to the Brazilian variant.


My dad and I are hoping to be able to sit in my sister garden on the 27th which will be her 50th.


Even though hugging won't be allowed, at least we can sit in their garden and living room, but I'm expecting this to be cancelled.

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

You couldn't make it up - except in the perfidious and vindictive EU.
Here is the paywalled link plus a useful quote.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...aign=DM1343081



Error upon compounded error. They are pig headed, self righteous and pompous.

An unfortunate combination of German cultural nationalism (we won’t have that, it’s Not Made Here), a population already prone to anti-vax, tinfoil hat stupidity, and crassly expressed, institutional outrage that the Brits dared make a flying success out of their vaccine programme at the same time as the EU was royally fecking up its own, has made for a toxic combination.

It’s only mildly entertaining watching German experts scratching their heads and wondering how the official denigration of a vaccine has led to a plummet in confidence and refusals to accept it. Mostly it’s tragic because they now have quantities of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine sitting in fridges rather than in the arms of people who may now get very sick or even die of covid.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Nice to see your even-handed comments on this.

They made an stupid error, realised it, and are correcting it - this is a common occurrence, not the end of earth or a massive conspiracy against the British.

The throbbing vein on your forehead must be a sight to behold....

"Pig headed, self righteous, and pompous" - oh, the irony...

Thanks for your ever-present sarcasm. You should see someone about that.

Why would I wish to be even-handed in this matter? Their stupid error could lead to hundreds of unnecessary deaths.

I repeat, the EU, France and Germany (governments) are pig headed, self righteous and pompous. If you can't see that then you're deluding yourself.

Originally Posted by Chris

An unfortunate combination of German cultural nationalism (we won’t have that, it’s Not Made Here), a population already prone to anti-vax, tinfoil hat stupidity, and crassly expressed, institutional outrage that the Brits dared make a flying success out of their vaccine programme at the same time as the EU was royally fecking up its own, has made for a toxic combination.

It’s only mildly entertaining watching German experts scratching their heads and wondering how the official denigration of a vaccine has led to a plummet in confidence and refusals to accept it. Mostly it’s tragic because they now have quantities of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine sitting in fridges rather than in the arms of people who may now get very sick or even die of covid.

Yup - letting nationalism over-ride rationality, and the negative impact on the German population, was very dumb.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by pip08456

All of the current ones, in the UK at least..

Great, so that should make it less of an issue.

[jonbxx]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

Thanks for your ever-present sarcasm. You should see someone about that.

Why would I wish to be even-handed in this matter? Their stupid error could lead to hundreds of unnecessary deaths.

I repeat, the EU, France and Germany (governments) are pig headed, self righteous and pompous. If you can't see that then you're deluding yourself.

They followed the science.

At the time of submission, there was insufficient data to support the effectiveness of the AZ vaccine in over 65s. There is no reason to expect the reaction over over 65s to be significantly different based on the reactions to COVID infections but also no hard evidence to say it will work. That's good enough for an Emergency Use Authorisation but probably not for a Conditional Market Authorisation.

Probably explained better by people with brains much bigger than mine here - https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/e...for-under-65s/

Originally Posted by jonbxx

They followed the science.

At the time of submission, there was insufficient data to support the effectiveness of the AZ vaccine in over 65s. There is no reason to expect the reaction over over 65s to be significantly different based on the reactions to COVID infections but also no hard evidence to say it will work. That's good enough for an Emergency Use Authorisation but probably not for a Conditional Market Authorisation.

Probably explained better by people with brains much bigger than mine here - https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/e...for-under-65s/

This is a tad naïve - you offer “they followed the science” as if it’s an absolute statement that can be offered without qualification, when clearly, as you acknowledge yourself, it is not. Those countries that authorised it for over 65s and those that did not were all following the science and yet somehow came to different conclusions.

There was actually perfectly adequate scientific data to support emergency use authorisation, and we are after all in an emergency. The phase 3 trials lacked sufficient test subjects in that age group to produce definitive data but there was ample data on antibody response and equally ample understanding that it was most likely this would translate into comparable vaccine efficacy in that group.

Given the problem Germany and France have with anti-vax movements they more than anyone should have understood that you can’t simply say you’re following the science as if science exists in a cultureless vacuum. How the science is communicated and how it is used politically are vitally important - as Germany is now discovering to its cost.

Covid vaccines cut risk of serious illness by 80%

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56240220

A single shot of either the Oxford-AstraZeneca or the Pfizer-BioNTech Covid jab reduces the chance of needing hospital treatment by more than 80%, an analysis in England shows.

The Public Health England data - based on people testing positive for Covid in hospital - follows similarly 'spectacular' results in Scotland.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock said the findings were "very strong".

More than 20 million people have had a first dose of Covid vaccine in the UK.

That's more than a third of the adult population.

Mr Hancock said the data, which will be published later, shows the AstraZeneca vaccine was slightly more effective than the Pfizer jab.

Excellent news.

Source - https://www.gov.uk/government/news/n...n-older-adults

Today Public Health England (PHE) has submitted a pre-print of a real-world study that shows that both the Pfizer and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines are highly effective in reducing COVID-19 infections among older people aged 70 years and over. Since January, protection against symptomatic COVID, 4 weeks after the first dose, ranged between 57 and 61% for one dose of Pfizer and between 60 and 73% for the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine...

... In the over 80s, data suggest that a single dose of either vaccine is more than 80% effective at preventing hospitalisation, around 3 to 4 weeks after the jab. There is also evidence for the Pfizer vaccine, which suggests it leads to an 83% reduction in deaths from COVID-19.

The data also shows symptomatic infections in over 70s decreasing from around 3 weeks after one dose of both vaccines.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by jonbxx

They followed the science.

At the time of submission, there was insufficient data to support the effectiveness of the AZ vaccine in over 65s. There is no reason to expect the reaction over over 65s to be significantly different based on the reactions to COVID infections but also no hard evidence to say it will work. That's good enough for an Emergency Use Authorisation but probably not for a Conditional Market Authorisation.

Probably explained better by people with brains much bigger than mine here - https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/e...for-under-65s/

Maybe. But then why is the German authority saying they made an error?

The German public won't be impressed.

[jonbxx]

Originally Posted by Chris

This is a tad naïve - you offer “they followed the science” as if it’s an absolute statement that can be offered without qualification, when clearly, as you acknowledge yourself, it is not. Those countries that authorised it for over 65s and those that did not were all following the science and yet somehow came to different conclusions.

There was actually perfectly adequate scientific data to support emergency use authorisation, and we are after all in an emergency. The phase 3 trials lacked sufficient test subjects in that age group to produce definitive data but there was ample data on antibody response and equally ample understanding that it was most likely this would translate into comparable vaccine efficacy in that group.

Given the problem Germany and France have with anti-vax movements they more than anyone should have understood that you can’t simply say you’re following the science as if science exists in a cultureless vacuum. How the science is communicated and how it is used politically are vitally important - as Germany is now discovering to its cost.

But these countries chose not to do an Emergency Use Authorisation so the weight of evidence needs to be stronger. The opinion of the various regulatory bodies in a number of countries was that there was insufficient evidence of efficacy in the over 65s. In the absence of any other vaccine, that's a bold move but with the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine being on line, not such a risk as under 65s get AZ and over 65s get Pfizer/BioNTech who did produce enough data to make a judgement.

Where there's a stronger anti-vaccine sentiment, I don't think 'it will probably work in over 65s' is a strong argument to increase vaccine uptake. We have lots of arguments that it hasn't been tested enough in this country. The fact that efficacy in over 65s was assumed rather than proved was somewhat glossed over.

---------- Post added at 18:31 ---------- Previous post was at 18:28 ----------

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

Maybe. But then why is the German authority saying they made an error?

The German public won't be impressed.

No governments make errors, they simply 'do not recognise' the accusations levelled at them