Coronavirus (OLD)

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by Hugh

I used to be "paranoid about Russians" for a living; the same people I was "paranoid" about are still running Russia, using the same political "influencing" tactics, but now with the power of social media and Big Data to get messages across - much more cost effective and better targeted.

Keep your radar turned on,and your finger on the trigger

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Pierre

The problem is that the country is now at the stage of not giving a shit anymore.

They’ve served their time and done their bit and now they had enough.

https://news.sky.com/story/major-inc...aches-12014686

The prosecution rests.

The U.K. has officially, taken itself out lockdown.

Like I say, look forward to the end of July stats.

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

It must the BLM protests?
Wait - the UK had those as well and we're on the decline.
Must be something else.

Wait .. what ?
We're on the decline because of protests ?

Or do you simply believe they had no effect at all
Are people just being paranoid ? Is social distancing really a waste of time ?

I guess another 2 or 3 weeks will show us, not just from all the protests, but all the holiday crowds of the last few days as well.

The protests, both the BLM and the counter one, would have shown up in figures by now.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Damien

The protests, both the BLM and the counter one, would have shown up in figures by now.

Indeed, and if there is no increase after thousands hit the beaches yesterday what does that tell everyone?

Originally Posted by Pierre

Indeed, and if there is no increase after thousands hit the beaches yesterday what does that tell everyone?

That we don't understand the virus well enough yet?

It is weird how it seems to be going away on its own. Also weird it's not going away in America where they are having a surge of cases.

My best guess is that lockdown drove the virus to such low numbers in Europe that it'll take a sustained period of people breaking social distancing for it gain a foothold again. After all, it doesn't transmit instantly. If I give it you at a protest then you're not also going to give it anyone at that protest, it'll take days before you can spread it, so you're not going to get exponential growth in one day of a mass gathering.

The 'R' number, that amount of people that one person can give it too, might be a lot higher at the protest if only a handful of people are spreading it then maybe that's a few handfuls of people that will catch it. Still small numbers.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Indeed, and if there is no increase after thousands hit the beaches yesterday what does that tell everyone?

That's the point. Test the risk - if you're brave/stupid enough to do it. The rest of us will find out - but suffer if there is a further lock down.

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

That's the point. Test the risk - if you're brave/stupid enough to do it. The rest of us will find out - but suffer if there is a further lock down.

Or if someone we know knows someone who was that stupid, unfortunately...

[downquark1]

There is already evidence it doesn't transmit as effectively outside. This could be an effect of UV light or temperature.

Originally Posted by Damien

That we don't understand the virus well enough yet?

It is weird how it seems to be going away on its own. Also weird it's not going away in America where they are having a surge of cases.

My best guess is that lockdown drove the virus to such low numbers in Europe that it'll take a sustained period of people breaking social distancing for it gain a foothold again. After all, it doesn't transmit instantly. If I give it you at a protest then you're not also going to give it anyone at that protest, it'll take days before you can spread it, so you're not going to get exponential growth in one day of a mass gathering.

The 'R' number, that amount of people that one person can give it too, might be a lot higher at the protest if only a handful of people are spreading it then maybe that's a few handfuls of people that will catch it. Still small numbers.

Interesting point in this article from NPR

"We have seen almost a near flip in the cases that we're experiencing," Lautenbach says. "So in April of this year, we were really struggling with long-term-care outbreaks. And so about 3 out of 4 people were over the age of 30 and really pretty heavily skewed to 60-plus. And by contrast, in June, we're seeing that now 2 out of 3 people that have contracted this disease are under 29."

That trend is mirrored in Florida, where the median age for COVID-19 patients dropped from 65 years old in March to 37 in late June. Dr. Cheryl Holder, an associate professor at Herbert Wertheim College of Medicine at Florida International University, says that's partly because young people are getting exposed more.

"It's really basically who gets exposed," Holder tells Morning Edition. "If you look who is staying in and following the guidelines, [it's] older people who are at risk. The older folks got [the message]; the young people, not so much."

That's Lautenbach's worry too.

"The concern is that because these younger people are having more mild symptoms, they are going to work sick, they are visiting with their parents and grandparents sick and they're continuing to go to social events where they expose more and more people," Lautenbach says. "So when we think about that web of spread, that web just grows and grows and grows."

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Damien

That we don't understand the virus well enough yet?

It is weird how it seems to be going away on its own. Also weird it's not going away in America where they are having a surge of cases.

My best guess is that lockdown drove the virus to such low numbers in Europe that it'll take a sustained period of people breaking social distancing for it gain a foothold again. After all, it doesn't transmit instantly. If I give it you at a protest then you're not also going to give it anyone at that protest, it'll take days before you can spread it, so you're not going to get exponential growth in one day of a mass gathering.

The 'R' number, that amount of people that one person can give it too, might be a lot higher at the protest if only a handful of people are spreading it then maybe that's a few handfuls of people that will catch it. Still small numbers.

I think the key is in bold. Yes there are people out protesting. However statistically if 1 in 2000 people have (some of those in hospital) it how many at the protest do? An outside activity, some with facemasks, a percentage could already be immune.

Similarly those flocking to the beach. Right now it’s statistically extremely unlikely that you’d get the virus doing any one off activity, whether currently prohibited or not.

The virus hasn’t so much went away on it’s own as the numbers have been driven down by general adherence to the rules. Even those consistently visibly flouting the rules in public spaces are carrying out a low risk activity. The main risk factors are in your own household, on public transport and in workplaces (such as offices). Places where people spend a lot of time in reasonably close contact with the same people.

[nomadking]

Bear in mind in South Korea, just one infected person created thousands of cases, and led to a city the size of Birmingham(2.5m people), being forced into a voluntary lockdown.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by jfman

I think the key is in bold. Yes there are people out protesting. However statistically if 1 in 2000 people have (some of those in hospital) it how many at the protest do? An outside activity, some with facemasks, a percentage could already be immune.

Similarly those flocking to the beach. Right now it’s statistically extremely unlikely that you’d get the virus doing any one off activity, whether currently prohibited or not.

The virus hasn’t so much went away on it’s own as the numbers have been driven down by general adherence to the rules. Even those consistently visibly flouting the rules in public spaces are carrying out a low risk activity. The main risk factors are in your own household, on public transport and in workplaces (such as offices). Places where people spend a lot of time in reasonably close contact with the same people.

That;s more or less how I see it.

Blinking Nora, someone get a screenshot

[joglynne]

Originally Posted by Chris

Blinking Nora, someone get a screenshot

I do believe this is the second time! What is the world coming to.