Coronavirus (OLD)

[jfman]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Very good, Hugh, but I don't buy it. When you think that one person coming into this country was responsible for causing this explosion of cases in the UK, there is no reason to suppose that the plateau will actually result in less cases than the peak. It will just mean that instead of a bigger rise in cases followed by a sharp fall, we will get a longer period of plateau, followed by a gradual fall. Some scientists think that there could even be several plateaux or mini-peaks as restrictions are eased.

So many people are underestimating the infectiousness of this disease and don't really grasp the principle of herd immunity. We are just buying time here so the NHS can cope. The virus will carry on infecting people until it has infected about 80% of us, many not knowing they have been infected.

The 'cure' will come when this has all fizzled out to a few isolated cases here and there.

You’ve got absolutely no evidence to support your hunch that these measures are having no effect on the outcome. Indeed, we’ve the entire capitalist system betting billions that it will.

Herd immunity is just Darwinism. You’re proposing to let people die to everyone left over doesn’t have the disease. We could extend that principle to plenty of illnesses - yet don’t.

Originally Posted by denphone

Any possible cure will come when we have a workable vaccine end of...

A vaccine isn't a cure. At the population scale, it is a means of artificially inducing herd immunity. Herd immunity is the only way to keep a virus from moving freely through a population.

We can't say for sure that natural herd immunity will be possible with this Coronavirus; it might be susceptible to rapid mutation, thereby bypassing our acquired immune response, or it may be of a type that only provokes a weak and not very persistent immune response in humans. If either of those turns out to be the case, then an ongoing vaccination programme will be necessary, probably going on for years until we can induce immunity to new strains almost as fast as the virus can produce them.

On the other hand, we still do not yet have sufficient data to know if those things will happen. It is quite possible that we could get herd immunity within a year or two.

In any case, neither herd immunity nor a vaccine is a cure.

[tweetiepooh]

Health care like the NHS will always have limits on what it can afford. Doctors will always have to make choices about who gets the limited treatment and when. COVID-19 is highlighting this but instead of "fighting" over a piece of equipment for patient A with condition X or patient B with condition Y it's lots of patients all at the same time with condition COVID-19. Individually it's terrible when patient A is "Joe Bloggs" and terrible for the individuals making the decisions.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by jfman

You’ve got absolutely no evidence to support your hunch that these measures are having no effect on the outcome. Indeed, we’ve the entire capitalist system betting billions that it will.

Herd immunity is just Darwinism. You’re proposing to let people die to everyone left over doesn’t have the disease. We could extend that principle to plenty of illnesses - yet don’t.

I think you're being a bit harsh on OB. He isn't personally proposing herd immunity at all. It's a well discussed approach to pandemic "management" and it is one logical method for eradicating disease, albeit at the possible expense of some lives. And yes - Darwinism.

[Russ]

Captain Moore is currently just short of £13 million.

More bravery and gumption in that man than in the whole of Parliament.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

I think you're being a bit harsh on OB. He isn't personally proposing herd immunity at all. It's a well discussed approach to pandemic "management" and it is one logical method for eradicating disease, albeit at the possible expense of some lives. And yes - Darwinism.

It's never been successfully achieved with uncontrolled spread of a live virus through a population.

[Hom3r]

Originally Posted by Russ

Captain Moore is currently just short of £13 million.

More bravery and gumption in that man than in the whole of Parliament.

People are calling for him to get a knighthood.

I agree, he's cheered the country up, and I can see it going up and up, dare I say £50 million.

---------- Post added at 13:55 ---------- Previous post was at 13:50 ----------

Originally Posted by Hugh

And if they didn't know they were carriers?

My mother didn't know she had it, we where making plans before lockdown and both my parents stay at home.

But other than Doctors/hospital appointments she only did the tesco shop with me.

She had no symptoms.

Originally Posted by jfman

It's never been successfully achieved with uncontrolled spread of a live virus through a population.

Herd immunity via viral infection has obviously happened though a population before, it's what happened before vaccines. It's why we don't all drop dead from all the viruses out there in the world, it's why the normal flu doesn't kill us all, it's why such viruses did kill people in the Americas when colonialists arrived.

It's why people used to have Pox Parties to give children the illnesses now that were deadlier in adults.

Remember the way our immune system works is even if there are different strains of a virus if they're similar enough to the previous one then it can adapt quicker. Most of us have immune systems that can detect a new strain of flu vaccine being similar to another as thus cope with it better. That's why we don't all need a flu vaccine.

[Sephiroth]

I get flu every time I take a vaccine! I never get flu if I don't! Now, about that Cornavirus vaccine ....

---------- Post added at 14:50 ---------- Previous post was at 14:45 ----------

Originally Posted by jfman

It's never been successfully achieved with uncontrolled spread of a live virus through a population.

What Damien said.

Originally Posted by jfman

It's never been successfully achieved with uncontrolled spread of a live virus through a population.

Of course it has, throughout the entire human history.
Vaccines have only existed for a very small period of time.

[jonbxx]

Originally Posted by jfman

It's never been successfully achieved with uncontrolled spread of a live virus through a population.

Apart from Smallpox of course..

The question is how did we manage to eradicate Smallpox? This disease had the following qualities;

• Only human to human transmission (no animals involved)
• You only spread it when pretty sick and obviously had Smallpox (no asymptomatic carriers)
• The virus was very stable and didn't mutate over time
• There was a simple vaccine available in Vaccinia/Cowpox

Smallpox was one nasty disease so governments and, more importantly, the public were SUPER motivated not to have it spread so many countries had mandatory vaccination which had a very high degree of compliance (of course, this was a long time back and a simpler time when people were more likely to do what they were told)

As the WHO approached the endgame and routine vaccination was phased out, sporadic outbreaks were tackled by very tough lockdowns and 'ring vaccination' where everyone within a certain area was vaccinated to nip outbreaks in the bud.

Unfortunately, it looks like Coronavirus can be spread by the 'walking sick', there may be animal hosts and the virus may mutate over time making things a lot more challenging

[jfman]

That's controlled.

---------- Post added at 16:32 ---------- Previous post was at 16:31 ----------

Originally Posted by Paul

Of course it has, throughout the entire human history.
Vaccines have only existed for a very small period of time.

I should have added 'deliberate' uncontrolled. In the past yes - diseases have killed enough people that those who remain are immune. I'm not sure that's a good policy outcome though...

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by jonbxx

Apart from Smallpox of course..

The question is how did we manage to eradicate Smallpox? This disease had the following qualities;

• Only human to human transmission (no animals involved)
• You only spread it when pretty sick and obviously had Smallpox (no asymptomatic carriers)
• The virus was very stable and didn't mutate over time
• There was a simple vaccine available in Vaccinia/Cowpox

Smallpox was one nasty disease so governments and, more importantly, the public were SUPER motivated not to have it spread so many countries had mandatory vaccination which had a very high degree of compliance (of course, this was a long time back and a simpler time when people were more likely to do what they were told)

As the WHO approached the endgame and routine vaccination was phased out, sporadic outbreaks were tackled by very tough lockdowns and 'ring vaccination' where everyone within a certain area was vaccinated to nip outbreaks in the bud.

Unfortunately, it looks like Coronavirus can be spread by the 'walking sick', there may be animal hosts and the virus may mutate over time making things a lot more challenging

We were warned with swine flu and bird flu; luckily they weren't as transmissible to humans but easily could have been. It was only a matter of time before something more transmissible came along.

It's natural for people to become complacent if these things come and go and they remain unaffected, but the Govt's pandemic planning is a shambles given they had the warnings from other flu outbreaks. Indeed its own flu pandemic exercise a few years ago showed the deficiencies we now have. They did diddly squat apart from hide the report findings in case we got too scared by it.

BREAKING: Wales First Minister says, Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland and the UK Government have agreed a further three week lock down extension to continue.

UK Government is yet to announce these measures. But the Wales FM, has basically outlined what is about to be announced at the 5PM Press briefing in the next 5 Minutes, in Downing Street.

[jfman]

Excellent announcement.