Coronavirus (OLD)

[Carth]

Originally Posted by Chris

It’s a classic example of research by scientists who are great with statistics but don’t have much clue how humans (and especially children) actually behave.

Yep, almost everything works on paper, but add in the variables encountered in 'real life' and . . .

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Chris

Dreadful news for all who know him and not the best news for the UK, although constitutionally he isn’t an executive president and there doesn’t have to be an election if the worst happens. The Tories are pretty good in a crisis and I reckon the 1922 committee would crown a successor pretty quickly.

Let’s not dwell on that though. I have a friend who was in and out of the ICU twice with C19 and he has pulled through. Going into intensive care isn’t the death knell and there’s still every reason to believe he will pull through. Here’s wishing him a speedy recovery anyway.

Only 50% of coronavirus patients have been surviving intensive care. 54% at Boris's age group, apparently.

[denphone]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Only 50% of coronavirus patients have been surviving intensive care. 54% at Boris's age group, apparently.

Boris Johnson is a pretty fit man for his age OB so there is a very good chance he will pull through.

l don't like to mention my own health experiences too much but l have pulled through several times so l am very confident he will pull through.

He is not on a ventilator which is a good sign.

[jonbxx]

Originally Posted by Chris

It’s a classic example of research by scientists who are great with statistics but don’t have much clue how humans (and especially children) actually behave.

You might want to check the original paper that I linked up the page a bit. The work he published cites back to previous studies around the SARS outbreak and previous influenza outbreaks which showed little transmission in children and suggested that the effect of closing schools in isolation is limited.

Of course, school are never closed in isolation and one big side effect of closing schools is that it forced a significant part of the population to work from home or not work at all to look after their children. This has great social distancing impact but also an economic impact as, in the UK, 16% of the workforce are primary caregivers of children of school age.

Taiwan learned from SARS in 2003 and implemented social distancing in schools during the 2009 H1N1 influenza outbreak with some success and might provide a model for future reopening. Influenza is somewhat different to Coronavirus outbreaks as it spreads rapidly through children.

Russell Viners study is important as we go forward as it helps define the path back to normality. We will reopen schools, we will go back to work. The big questions are how and when - the famous 'exit strategy'

I’m not questioning any of that. Simply the practicality of some of the specific suggestions Viners has made around the partial reopening of schools, which betray a complete lack of understanding of how British school premises are designed and utilised, and how children behave when they’re denied the chance to blow off steam in the playground.

Missus is volunteering at the local key workers school where the staff/pupil ratios, maximum room occupancy and other infection control measures are absolutely insane (in a good way). The building is a school with a capacity of a little under 200 and it is presently able to accommodate something like 40 children in order for social distancing to be maintained.

[Russ]

I hope he pulls through quickly and with minimal (if any) complications but his current situation does not change how much I can't stand the fat lying so-and-so.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by denphone

Boris Johnson is a pretty fit man for his age OB so there is a very good chance he will pull through.

l don't like to mention my own health experiences too much but l have pulled through several times so l am very confident he will pull through.

He is not on a ventilator which is a good sign.

I'm confident of his fitness but suspect he got a heavy dose as his line of work meant he was meeting and being with lots of different potential carriers day in, day out. The fact that he's not on a ventilator is a very positive sign.

When he does recover, I am sure he will also be deservedly resting up for a few weeks to fully recuperate.

BREAKING: Prime Ministers official spokesman has given an update this lunchtime on PM's health condition. Says Boris remains stable, has received Standard Oxygen treatment, he is not on a ventilator and is not receiving any invasive respiratory assistance.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Russ

I hope he pulls through quickly and with minimal (if any) complications but his current situation does not change how much I can't stand the fat lying so-and-so.

All politicians are liars, Ross. They have to be, because when they change their minds (as a result of the listening, as they are frequently told they must do) they are accused of doing u-turns. To cover up their earlier mistakes, they tend to be economical with the truth.

Trouble is, with the media of today, every piffling gaff is highligted in the most sensationalist way ever.

Boris does mean well, and that's why he is so popular with most. He's human.

[Russ]

*Russ

Yes, I know they’re all liars but this particular MP has a track records of being caught out with his lies and also happens to be in charge of running the country. I think the only way he means well is when he and his millionaire chums benefit.

Either way, I do hope he pulls through the CV.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Russ

*Russ

Yes, I know they’re all liars but this particular MP has a track records of being caught out with his lies and also happens to be in charge of running the country. I think the only way he means well is when he and his millionaire chums benefit.

Either way, I do hope he pulls through the CV.

It depends how you define 'lie'. He said he would get us out of the EU by the end of last year. He meant that, so it was not a lie. He would have achieved what he promised, too, if the remain-obsessed House of Commons at the time had not done their damnedest to block it.

Anti-Conservatives just love to keep repeating the 'liar' nonsense because it's the only way they can think of to try to undermine the most popular PM we've had for ages.

[denphone]

Don't we have a Brexit thread for this debate OB..

[Russ]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

It depends how you define 'lie'. He said he would get us out of the EU by the end of last year. He meant that, so it was not a lie. He would have achieved what he promised, too, if the remain-obsessed House of Commons at the time had not done their damnedest to block it.

Anti-Conservatives just love to keep repeating the 'liar' nonsense because it's the only way they can think of to try to undermine the most popular PM we've had for ages.

I’m not taking this off topic by pointing out the individual incidents but he’s lost jobs because he’s been caught out lying. You don’t need to be “anti-conservative” to see that.

Anyway as always, I wish him a speedy recovery.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by heero_yuy

An interesting piece and well worth the read.

I posted something similar weeks ago. There was piece questioning whether it was worth taking the economy and piling up huge debt to save what might only be a few hundred thousand people.

I suppose choosing not to sacrifice the vulnerable is what makes us human.

---------- Post added at 14:08 ---------- Previous post was at 14:06 ----------

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Only 50% of coronavirus patients have been surviving intensive care. 54% at Boris's age group, apparently.

That's a misleading stat, considering the tens of thousands still be treated in ICU.

[denphone]

Some interesting data according to modelling by a US university.

http://www.healthdata.org/news-relea...s-uk-early-its

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates