Coronavirus (OLD)

Originally Posted by Paul

Using those figures ;

If you ignore the "suspected" cases then The fatality rate is 2.2%.
The infection rate (using a world population of 7.7 Billion) is 0.0000087%.
If you include the suspected, the fatality rate is 2.0%, the infection rate is still only 0.00001%.

Fatality rates are calculated based on those who have died having caught the disease, not on the general population.

Not really sure what your point is
The fatality rates above are calculated as you just said.

[Mr K]

Cruise holidays seem to be advertising everywhere atm. I think they must have some 'availability'.

[downquark1]

OK, now is the time to prepare.

Stop unnecessary travel
Make sure you have enough tinned food and medicine for 2 weeks, remember tin opener.
You probably won't be able to get a decent facemask. I've been trying for weeks. Looks like they don't help much anyway.
If your water supply is suspect make sure you have extra water.

If you suspect you have the virus don't go to the hospital, call the NHS number.

[Carth]

Not wishing to downplay things, but the media are really going a little hysterical on this one.

In perspective:
SARS virus . . 4 people in the UK were infected, no deaths.
Bird Flu . . no reported infections or deaths
Influenza (sometimes called winter flu) . . an average of 600 UK deaths per year

It's winter, people catch colds & flu, probably more likely if recently returning from warmer/dryer climates.

If you're in the group of 'vulnerable' people, you should already be taking precautions against flu anyway.

just saying like . . .

[jonbxx]

Slowly but surely, more direct impacts are being felt in this household...

The kids school sent out a letter this morning about COVID-19, hoping to reassure parents. Most of it looks like boilerplate text from Public Health England. One small wrinkle is that there was a ski trip to Italy last week but it was noted that the kids including my eldest were 200 miles away from the closest case.

I have warned my daughter that she might get some gip from other kids about her trip but she's cool with that. Funnily enough, it seems that the venn diagram of kids chatting most about COVID-19 and refuse to get vaccinations is pretty much a circle!

At work, our list of 'essential travel only' countries seem to be growing daily and our Business Continuity Management systems have opened up a sleepy eye...

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by jonbxx

Slowly but surely, more direct impacts are being felt in this household...

The kids school sent out a letter this morning about COVID-19, hoping to reassure parents. Most of it looks like boilerplate text from Public Health England. One small wrinkle is that there was a ski trip to Italy last week but it was noted that the kids including my eldest were 200 miles away from the closest case.

I have warned my daughter that she might get some gip from other kids about her trip but she's cool with that. Funnily enough, it seems that the venn diagram of kids chatting most about COVID-19 and refuse to get vaccinations is pretty much a circle!

At work, our list of 'essential travel only' countries seem to be growing daily and our Business Continuity Management systems have opened up a sleepy eye...

But did those people who were 200 miles away, remain 200 miles away? People move around or have contact with others who move around. How else do you think something spreads?

I think the difference in the actions/reactions between this and flu is that flu (in all its variants) is a known disease, whilst we are still in the early days of finding out what COVID-19 does.

There would be outrage if COVID-19 suddenly started spreading faster, with more fatalities, because the authorities weren’t taking "appropriate measures" - they’re damned if they do, and damned if they don’t.

[papa smurf]

WARNING SIGNS Coronavirus – Iran’s deputy health minister looks sick while downplaying crisis just hours before HE tests positive


https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/110392...ests-positive/

[jonbxx]

Originally Posted by nomadking

But did those people who were 200 miles away, remain 200 miles away? People move around or have contact with others who move around. How else do you think something spreads?

Well, if any cases come up where she was, I would be more concerned but as it stands, I think we're good. 200 miles is the distance from my house in Hertfordshire to Liverpool and I wouldn't worry about cases there

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by jonbxx

Well, if any cases come up where she was, I would be more concerned but as it stands, I think we're good. 200 miles is the distance from my house in Hertfordshire to Liverpool and I wouldn't worry about cases there

Since the incubation seems to be assumed to be around 2 weeks, there is no guarantee of anything. Just think of the potential network of contacts that can be made in the space of a week. How do you think it "escaped" from China?
School holidays tend to slow up any spread of flu type diseases, therefore returning to school is when the process ramps up again.

[jonbxx]

Originally Posted by nomadking

Since the incubation seems to be assumed to be around 2 weeks, there is no guarantee of anything. Just think of the potential network of contacts that can be made in the space of a week. How do you think it "escaped" from China?
School holidays tend to slow up any spread of flu type diseases, therefore returning to school is when the process ramps up again.

I am sure the 24 hour coach trip back from Italy wouldn't have helped either!

I'm going on the advice from Public Health England which advised the risk as low (the school checked this one pretty sharpish!)

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by jonbxx

I am sure the 24 hour coach trip back from Italy wouldn't have helped either!

I'm going on the advice from Public Health England which advised the risk as low (the school checked this one pretty sharpish!)

Link

It comes as more schools closed or sent staff and pupils home following trips to Italy, which has over 300 cases.

[jonbxx]

Originally Posted by nomadking

Link

This is the specific government advice;

If you have travelled from:

• Iran
• specific lockdown areas in northern Italy as designated by the Government of Italy
• ‘special care zones’ in South Korea as designated by the Government of the Republic of South Korea
• Hubei province (returned in the past 14 days

)

You should immediately:

stay indoors and avoid contact with other people as you would with the flu
call NHS 111 to inform them of your recent travel to the area
In Scotland phone your GP or NHS 24 on 111 out of hours. If you are in Northern Ireland, call 0300 200 7885.

Please follow this advice even if you do not have symptoms of the virus.

Lockdown areas in northern Italy:

in Lombardy: Codogno, Castiglione d’Adda, Casalpusterlengo, Fombio, Maleo, Somaglia, Bertonico, Terranova dei Passerini, Castelgerundo and San Fiorano
in Veneto: Vo’ Euganeo
Special care zones in South Korea:

Daegu
Cheongdo

Link

For my daughter, the advice is only to isolate if there are symptoms (cough, shortness of breath, fever, etc.) My work travel safety team are saying the same things and they are usually super paranoid

Problem is, people generally don’t “self isolate as you would with the flu” ... or a bad cold for that matter. Pressures from employers and years of advertising by the likes of Lemsip positively encourage people to carry on as normal unless their stage of illness is so bad they physically can’t get out of bed. And with covid, 4 out of 5 infections produce symptoms that are no worse than a middling cold and far less severe than flu. It is going to take a herculaenean effort to keep this thing from going full pandemic, especially with the BBC giving airtime to boomers marooned in long-haul destinations, insisting everybody is overreacting and demanding that the FCO gives them a free ride home.