PM Boris forms a government - Page 145

**Chris** · 10-09-2019, 00:43

If Boris delivers any sort of Brexit next month, Labour will have nowhere to turn. It will have to agree to an election, which Boris would fight without any of the Gaukeward squad standing in any constituencies and, one assumes, any new candidates forced to attest in their own blood that they’re fully behind the leader’s Brexit strategy (the substantive negotiations still being ahead of us). If Brexit is anything other than the No Deal kind, Farage won’t go away, but I think it will be fairly easy for Boris to neutralise him by simply pointing out that Brexit has happened and there’s no point to Nigel any more. Without their platform and funding via their MEP seats it will be increasingly difficult for them to continue and to get any significant hearing anyway.

There are still too many variables to make a comfortable prediction, but it is possible at least to see a scenario in which Boris delivers Brexit next month and acquires a governable, compliant Commons majority shortly thereafter.

1andrew1 · 10-09-2019, 01:20

So, France will not block an extension. Great news!

Quote:

Brexit: Why France is unlikely to veto delay...
But such pronouncements by French cabinet ministers - such as Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian this weekend - should be taken with a hefty pinch of salt.

These are the main reasons why:

1) France has form on this. It has always huffed and puffed before finally signing up to previous Brexit extensions...
2) Mr Macron openly admitted recently that he is happy to play "bad cop" when it comes to Brexit...
3) It is unbelievably unlikely that France would veto a new Brexit extension if other EU countries - especially Ireland with so much at stake - were in favour.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-49640344

Dave42 · 10-09-2019, 02:21

well done to all MPs stopping the trap

---------- Post added at 01:21 ---------- Previous post was at 01:10 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman

If my calculations are right if the ERG backed the third vote on TMs deal it would have passed.

Chris is on the money here. TMs future was tied to the DUP (in that she couldn’t lead the Tories into another GE). Boris isn’t tied in the same way. He wants a general election. After he delivers any kind of Brexit he must fancy his chances to win a decent majority.

---------- Post added at 21:42 ---------- Previous post was at 21:39 ----------

I think the Conservatives could squeeze this through without the Labour Party.

how exactly with no majority it -43

jfman · 10-09-2019, 07:35

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris

If Boris delivers any sort of Brexit next month, Labour will have nowhere to turn. It will have to agree to an election, which Boris would fight without any of the Gaukeward squad standing in any constituencies and, one assumes, any new candidates forced to attest in their own blood that they’re fully behind the leader’s Brexit strategy (the substantive negotiations still being ahead of us). If Brexit is anything other than the No Deal kind, Farage won’t go away, but I think it will be fairly easy for Boris to neutralise him by simply pointing out that Brexit has happened and there’s no point to Nigel any more. Without their platform and funding via their MEP seats it will be increasingly difficult for them to continue and to get any significant hearing anyway.

There are still too many variables to make a comfortable prediction, but it is possible at least to see a scenario in which Boris delivers Brexit next month and acquires a governable, compliant Commons majority shortly thereafter.

If he delivers a deal surely he brings the 21 back in and tries to heal the division in the party? Some won't come, but I think most will.

OLD BOY · 10-09-2019, 09:11

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-p...ments-49636684 @19:28

I wonder what the Government is basing its planning and mitigating actions on, then?

Having been involved in very many risk assessment/mitigation efforts, you assess what the upcoming scenarios are, what are the risks arising from these scenarios, score these risks/issues by likelihood and impact, and agree what mitigating actions/plans can/need to be put in place to reduce/remove the negative impacts - if Yellowhammer is not being used for these purposes, what is it being used for, and what planning/impact assessments/likely scenarios are being used?

'Likely scenario' is a million miles away from 'worst case scenario'. If effective mitigating measures are taken to avoid a worst case scenario, then the negative impacts have been removed, haven't they?

1andrew1 · 10-09-2019, 09:22

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

'Likely scenario' is a million miles away from 'worst case scenario'. If effective mitigating measures are taken to avoid a worst case scenario, then the negative impacts have been removed, haven't they?

No.
Mitigated=Reduced.
Revoked=Removed.

OLD BOY · 10-09-2019, 09:24

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman

If he delivers a deal surely he brings the 21 back in and tries to heal the division in the party? Some won't come, but I think most will.

I think that's right, and even if Corbyn continues to sit on the fence, some Labour people will come on board as well.

Hom3r · 10-09-2019, 20:34

I'm still waiting for a remainer to provide 100% that a no deal Brexit or a Brexit in general will be a disaster/crashing out.

With out the saying "Prove it won't"

1andrew1 · 10-09-2019, 21:08

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

I think that's right, and even if Corbyn continues to sit on the fence, some Labour people will come on board as well.

I think most of those 21 are Conservative history and many seem to have made plans to move into other areas.

**Hugh** · 10-09-2019, 21:26

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hom3r

I'm still waiting for a remainer to provide 100% that a no deal Brexit or a Brexit in general will be a disaster/crashing out.

With out the saying "Prove it won't"

I'm still waiting for a brexiter to provide 100% that a no deal Brexit or a Brexit in general won’t be a disaster/crashing out.

With out the saying "Prove it will"

Sephiroth · 10-09-2019, 21:35

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh

I'm still waiting for a brexiter to provide 100% that a no deal Brexit or a Brexit in general won’t be a disaster/crashing out.

With out the saying "Prove it will"

You first. Or can't you?

**Hugh** · 10-09-2019, 21:42

I was being ironic (I think you knew that).

Neither can be "proved 100%", only evaluated using available information, and then impact estimated using that evaluation, with levels of confidence on those estimations - just like when a business puts together its 1 year, 3 year, and 5 year plans.

And like those plans, they are continually reviewed for changes in the environment and amended accordingly - not just carry on with the original plan because "that’s what we agreed then".

Sephiroth · 10-09-2019, 22:53

Staying in will be a democratic disaster for our politics and governance which is worse than the short term challenges that no-deal exit must bring.

Boris, not known nor revered for his honesty, does at least understand what I’m saying.

Btw, I like the letter in today’s Tory graph that suggests he adds a letter to accompany the letter drafted by Labour to say that he, the UK PM did not write the other letter and it is not the UK guvmin’s policy. Cat, pigeons and indignation’s will follow. Can’t wait.

jfman · 10-09-2019, 23:02

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

Staying in will be a democratic disaster for our politics and governance which is worse than the short term challenges that no-deal exit must bring.

Boris, not known nor revered for his honesty, does at least understand what I’m saying.

Btw, I like the letter in today’s Tory graph that suggests he adds a letter to accompany the letter drafted by Labour to say that he, the UK PM did not write the other letter and it is not the UK guvmin’s policy. Cat, pigeons and indignation’s will follow. Can’t wait.

Our politics is irreconcilably broken either way.

As the Taoiseach pointed out yesterday all the stumbling blocks of a deal are the stumbling blocks of a future trade agreement. The fact we would have left, instead of be leaving, doesn’t change that.

1andrew1 · 10-09-2019, 23:15

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman

Our politics is irreconcilably broken either way.

As the Taoiseach pointed out yesterday all the stumbling blocks of a deal are the stumbling blocks of a future trade agreement. The fact we would have left, instead of be leaving, doesn’t change that.

Exactly. It just puts us in a weaker negotiating position as we go cap in hand to Ireland and the EU. Please sir, can I have some more...trade? Embarrassing.