PM Boris forms a government

Originally Posted by jfman

Dun dun dun dun.

Here comes the recession.

Pretty much the same tune they’re singing all over Europe right now.

It will be interesting to see how Boris and Sajid approach things and whether they have a significantly different approach to Spreadsh*t Phil (my guess is they will).

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Chris

Pretty much the same tune they’re singing all over Europe right now.

It will be interesting to see how Boris and Sajid approach things and whether they have a significantly different approach to Spreadsh*t Phil (my guess is they will).

Interesting to see what it will be, given so many unquantifiable risks at the moment.

[nomadking]

Yet more never ending nonsense.
Link

Sajid Javid was speaking after the Office for National Statistics said the economy had contracted for the first time since 2012.

So it's also happened BEFORE Brexit.

The statistics body said its latest figures showed that those increased stockpiles had been partly run down in the second quarter and that a number of car manufacturers had brought forward their annual shutdowns to April as part of contingency planning, which also hit growth.

So the normal later annual shutdown won't now happen, therefore potentially boosting that quarter.

The data comes at a time when there are signs other economies are slowing. For instance, data on Friday showed that French industrial output fell more than expected in June.
...
"But the fundamentals of the British economy are strong - wages are growing, employment is at a record high and we're forecast to grow faster than Germany, Italy and Japan this year."

Originally Posted by nomadking

Yet more never ending nonsense.
Link
So it's also happened BEFORE Brexit.
.

Yes, recessions and economic contractions have happened before.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by denphone

Well we did not need a election when Theresa May called one and that did not end very well did it as we have had ensuing chaos since..

She really did need to call an election because she knew she would have a problem with Parliament getting her deal through. Unfortunately, she fell apart during the campaign, and it all started so well.

I think most people acknowledge that Boris has little choice but to call an election immediately after Brexit. He only has a majority of 1, so all the renegades would have a field day, holding him to ransom over everything he wanted to push through.

This chaos has to stop, and an election appears to be the only way to bring back some sanity to our Parliament. His personal popularity, coupled with a grateful electorate relieved to see Brexit finally ddlivered, will guarantee him a good working majority.

[denphone]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

She really did need to call an election because she knew she would have a problem with Parliament getting her deal through. Unfortunately, she fell apart during the campaign, and it all started so well.

Bollocks as she has had a reasonable enough majority before calling a election which was then reduced considerably after the election so whoever gave her advice about calling a election was quite clearly wrong.

Originally Posted by Damien

Yes, recessions and economic contractions have happened before.

Reminds me of "some" Remainer folk, that whenever there is any "Good" news on the UK Economy, they kindly remind us, "We haven't left EU yet." But when negative news hits, "IT'S BECAUSE OF BREXIT, GODDAMMIT!".

[jfman]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

She really did need to call an election because she knew she would have a problem with Parliament getting her deal through. Unfortunately, she fell apart during the campaign, and it all started so well.

I think most people acknowledge that Boris has little choice but to call an election immediately after Brexit. He only has a majority of 1, so all the renegades would have a field day, holding him to ransom over everything he wanted to push through.

This chaos has to stop, and an election appears to be the only way to bring back some sanity to our Parliament. His personal popularity, coupled with a grateful electorate relieved to see Brexit finally ddlivered, will guarantee him a good working majority.

Under the old Parliamentary arithmetic her deal passes every time.

Originally Posted by denphone

Bollocks as she has had a reasonable enough majority before calling a election which was then reduced considerably after the election so whoever gave her advice about calling a election was quite clearly wrong.

The advice was sound. The Tories had a very comfortable polling lead going into the 2017 election campaign, which May squandered by being quite useless. At least she was consistent ... the electorate saw through her, then the EU negotiators saw through her and eventually even her loyal backbenchers saw through her and insisted she had to go. A different PM going in to 2017 would, I believe, have got an increased parliamentary majority, a better WA from the EU and would have got it through Parliament as well. We would now be outside the EU, with a solid Tory government and most likely with a Labour leadership contest on the horizon.

Still, we are where we are and I’m glad she’s gone.

[Sephiroth]

A stimulus on business taxes would inject relief into the economy. Guvmin can do that.

Originally Posted by denphone

Thats pretty inevitable..

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by jfman

Dun dun dun dun.

Here comes the recession.

The was an economist on the radio today that actually talked rational sense.

He advised that in 2012 there was a lot of positive economic factors in the run up to the olympics and once the olympics finished there was an obvious deficit in those factors.

Likewise, in 2019, the country was gearing up for a March exit. Bulk buying and storing of materials and products was rife. But Brexit didn’t happen.Therefore causing a deficit in the activity the following quarter.

With BJ taking a hard line on October exit - regardless, expect to see more buying and storing activity a second contraction is unlikely but expect a contraction the quarter after regardless of whether we leave or not.

[Sephiroth]

I heard that interview (13:00 Radio 4 news). Wasn't it a "she" or at least a "they" - and thankfully unbiased.

[jfman]

It's a reasonable enough theory. That's why it's vital we avoid contraction this quarter, as further contraction would indicate wider underlying problems as opposed to peaks and troughs that could be associated with stockpiling.

FWIW: I think avoiding recession, if we do so, if only postponing the inevitable. It's a global issue not just a UK one.

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

I heard that interview (13:00 Radio 4 news). Wasn't it a "she" or at least a "they" - and thankfully unbiased.

What are the chances they won't be invited again.

Originally Posted by Pierre

The was an economist on the radio today that actually talked rational sense.

He advised that in 2012 there was a lot of positive economic factors in the run up to the olympics and once the olympics finished there was an obvious deficit in those factors.

Likewise, in 2019, the country was gearing up for a March exit. Bulk buying and storing of materials and products was rife. But Brexit didn’t happen.Therefore causing a deficit in the activity the following quarter.

With BJ taking a hard line on October exit - regardless, expect to see more buying and storing activity a second contraction is unlikely but expect a contraction the quarter after regardless of whether we leave or not.

Small flaw in that theory - the 2012 recession was caused by negative growth in the last quarter of 2011 (Oct-Dec) and the first quarter of 2012 (Jan-Mar 2012),

The Olympics were in July/August 2012...

Anyway, after its historical data, the Office for National Statistics said growth was flat in the first quarter of 2012, revised from an earlier estimate of a 0.1% contraction. This means the economy did not contract for two quarters in a row - the definition of a recession.

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[/COLOR]

Originally Posted by nomadking

What are the chances they won't be invited again.

Do you mean like Nigel Farage?