Brexit - Page 218

Pierre · 07-06-2019, 09:38

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

Labour increase their majority in Peterborough, might have got an even bigger increase if it wasn't for that guy up there dressed as elmo, he'd have got my vote every time

But lost 17% of their vote.

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It also shows that the result in Peterborough wouldn’t change in a 2nd referendum.

Mr K · 07-06-2019, 10:01

Quote:

Originally Posted by denphone

l see Mr Farage sneaked out of the back door before the result was announced...

Yes that was funny turned up to make a victory speech, then scuttled off when he got wind of the result

papa smurf · 07-06-2019, 10:06

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K

Yes that was funny turned up to make a victory speech, then scuttled off when he got wind of the result

Yes almost as funny as when your side lost the Referendum.

denphone · 07-06-2019, 10:11

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K

Yes that was funny turned up to make a victory speech, then scuttled off when he got wind of the result

His predicted landslide obviously never materialised....

Pierre · 07-06-2019, 10:32

maybe not, but he got 29% from a standing start. now if that replicated across a general election, obviously he wouldn't get that much across the board.

But it would have hung parliament written all over it, with the Brexit party in the position to be king makers. Not an attractive thought for either Labour or Tory.

denphone · 07-06-2019, 10:36

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre

maybe not, but he got 29% from a standing start. now if that replicated across a general election, obviously he wouldn't get that much across the board.

But it would have hung parliament written all over it, with the Brexit party in the position to be king makers. Not an attractive thought for either Labour or Tory.

Personally my own thoughts are that a hung parliament is quite likely at the next General Election with the Conservative and Labour party losing more votes to the Brexit party and the Lib Dems..

**Hugh** · 07-06-2019, 10:47

Quote:

Originally Posted by papa smurf

Less that 700 votes in it, that's not bad for a party that is only 2 months old.

Keep repeating it, some people might believe you...

The BP was incorporated in November 2018, formally announced in January 2019, registered with the Electoral Commission in February 2019, and it launched in April 2019 - none of those dates are "only 2 months old"...

pip08456 · 07-06-2019, 10:56

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh

Keep repeating it, some people might believe you...

The BP was incorporated in November 2018, formally announced in January 2019, registered with the Electoral Commission in February 2019, and it launched in April 2019 - none of those dates are "only 2 months old"...

Depends what date in April it was launched.

papa smurf · 07-06-2019, 11:31

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh

Keep repeating it, some people might believe you...

The BP was incorporated in November 2018, formally announced in January 2019, registered with the Electoral Commission in February 2019, and it launched in April 2019 - none of those dates are "only 2 months old"...

Bless.

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Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456

Depends what date in April it was launched.

The 12-4-19 wasn't it.

pip08456 · 07-06-2019, 12:09

Quote:

Originally Posted by papa smurf

The 12-4-19 wasn't it.

Just less than 2 months ago.

Gavin78 · 07-06-2019, 12:10

Just remind me how long standing the Cons and Labour have been around? The BP have done a great job so far.

The only down side to this is how long can they hold this fort for? They might have the numbers now but in the long haul they might just fade out it would have been nice if they had won that seat.

denphone · 07-06-2019, 13:26

Prof Sir John Curtice thoughts on the Peterborough byelection.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-politics-live

Quote:

The Peterborough byelection result confirms that the issue of Brexit has turned the UK’s two-party system into a four-party system, Prof Sir John Curtice, Britain’s most respected psephologist, told the Today programme this morning.

Labour’s Lisa Forbes won the byelection with 30.9% of the vote over the Brexit party, which got 28.9%. The Conservative, who held the seat for 12 years until 2015, came third with 21.4%, and the Liberal Democrats fourth on 12.3%.

Curtice said that in the last general election in 2017 the two traditional main parties, Labour and the Conservatives, shared 95% of the vote in Peterborough, but got only 52.3% in the byelection. He told Today:

Quote:

Brexit has become such an important issue that rather than our traditional system of two-party politics, at the moment at least, we’ve got a system of four party politics.

The two traditional parties, that are much happier talking about issues other than Brexit, have been joined by two parties: the Brexit party at one end of the spectrum; and the Liberal Democrats on the other, who are quite happy to carry on talking about Brexit. That’s the issue on which they are united and on which they seem to be winning votes.

Quote:

Labour’s share of the vote in Peterborough was up nine percentage points compared to it disastrous showing in the European election. But Curtice said senior Labour figures could not pretend that the party was not losing support over Brexit.

The idea, that the Labour party has been coming at this morning, that this all goes to show that the whole argument about Brexit and the legacy of the European election can be ignored, is wrong.

The Peterborough result was consistent with recent opinion polls, he said and added: “Not as dramatic as the European elections but still more than enough to disrupt our usual politics.”

He pointed out that Labour’s vote in Peterborough represented the “smallest share of the vote that has ever been sufficient to win a general election in postwar British politics.”

Meanwhile, the Conservatives lost more than half the vote share they won in 2017, Curtice said:

Some of the immediate pressure on both the Conservative and Labour Party will be thought to be eased, but if anybody comes away from this and thinks, ‘Oh, actually, you know, the impact that Brexit is having on our politics is beginning to disappear and dissipate’. Well, maybe it will eventually. But it certainly isn’t doing so yet on the evidence this byelection.

Unless and until the Conservative party can deliver Brexit, it is going to be in trouble. And it remains the case that it looks as though the Labour party’s position on Brexit is not anything like adequate for the Labour party to be able to retain the kinds of support they had in the 2017 election.

1andrew1 · 07-06-2019, 13:27

Johnson's case case is underway. Summonses against Boris Johnson quashed. Reasons to follow, key thing seems to be that the district judge may have extended the scope of misconduct in public office.

**Hugh** · 07-06-2019, 13:56

Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456

Just less than 2 months ago.

Fair enough - launched less than two months ago, incorporated 7 months ago; the party is not less than 2 months old.

**Damien** · 07-06-2019, 14:06

The case against Boris has been thrown out, no surprise there.