Government & Post Election Discussion - Page 134

Angua · 06-05-2019, 19:27

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

I think May and Corbyn would have said that the result was a message to get on with Brexit regardless of whether their vote increased or decreased!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

...... and would still have either Head’s stuck in the sand or playing political games or both.

Yup..

**Mick** · 06-05-2019, 19:36

Right - enough about Brexit in this thread now please - we are not having two threads on one subject. We're cross posting all the time and it's getting ridiculous. It's inevitable that Brexit may crop up but, if your comment or post is mainly about Brexit, then it goes in Brexit thread. Government and Pre or Post Election issues in this one.

denphone · 11-05-2019, 19:15

The latest Westminster voting intention.

Quote:

LAB: 28% (-5)
CON: 22% (-5)
BREX: 21% (+4)
LDEM: 11% (+5)
GRN: 6% (+2)
UKIP: 4% (-)

via @OpiniumResearch, 08 May

**Chris** · 11-05-2019, 19:23

The existence of the Brexit party is really muddying the waters now. It’s by no means clear that they would contest a general election, nor is it an easy matter to work out what that potential national vote share would look like constituency by constituency, as they’ve never stood for election before.

The electoral landscape is such that I think the chances of there being one before the 5-year term is up is minimal.

denphone · 11-05-2019, 19:33

l think its quite clear that we are living in very volatile political times so its hard to know what will happen come the next General Election.

**Damien** · 11-05-2019, 19:34

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris

The existence of the Brexit party is really muddying the waters now. It’s by no means clear that they would contest a general election, nor is it an easy matter to work out what that potential national vote share would look like constituency by constituency, as they’ve never stood for election before.

The electoral landscape is such that I think the chances of there being one before the 5-year term is up is minimal.

I think they will contest the election. I don't quite know how, assuming Brexit is delivered, but the general anti-politics, anti-establishment mood is not going anywhere anytime soon and they'll tap into that.

My best guess is come the next general election there will be something about Brexit they can run on. No Brexit yet? Obvious. Brexit Deal? Run against the Deal. No Deal? Point to every negative as a result of the 'bungling' of Brexit or just against the elites generally.

Sephiroth · 11-05-2019, 19:35

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris

The existence of the Brexit party is really muddying the waters now. It’s by no means clear that they would contest a general election, nor is it an easy matter to work out what that potential national vote share would look like constituency by constituency, as they’ve never stood for election before.

The electoral landscape is such that I think the chances of there being one before the 5-year term is up is minimal.

Macron's party won shortly after formation because of voter objection to the main parties; in Israel the Kadima party was formed in 2005 and won elections in 2006.

Voter displeasure with the political class will always be expressed at the ballot box when the opportunity arises.

**Chris** · 11-05-2019, 20:46

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

Macron's party won shortly after formation because of voter objection to the main parties; in Israel the Kadima party was formed in 2005 and won elections in 2006.

Voter displeasure with the political class will always be expressed at the ballot box when the opportunity arises.

Both of those cases were elections held using systems that offer proportionality to some degree or other. That allows new parties to get a foothold and it also allows voters the confidence to know if they vote for the upstart it is not a wasted vote.

Our electoral system was designed for a two-party House of Commons, and while we may no longer have two parties nationally, three-way marginals at a constituency level are comparatively rare. Generally, voters in each constituency, if they want their vote to count, either support the incumbent or the previous party to hold the seat. Change happens, but is slow (my local Westminster seat, over the last 25 years, has gone Tory, Labour, SNP, and back to Tory - that is not the common experience in the UK, even discounting the SNP).

British electors are sophisticated - some of the most sophisticated in the world. They know how the system works and for the most part they vote to maximise their potential benefit within it. Disruptive newcomers, as happened in Israel and France, just can't have that effect here. If they could, UKIP would have had a clutch of seats in every election over the last 10 years.

Sephiroth · 11-05-2019, 21:09

I think it depends on the degree of disaffection by voters at the next GE.

OLD BOY · 11-05-2019, 21:25

Quote:

Originally Posted by denphone

l think its quite clear that we are living in very volatile political times so its hard to know what will happen come the next General Election.

Nobody can possibly forecast that. If the Conservatives deliver a pure Brexit, the confidence of voters will be restored.

If they don't, God knows what will happen!

---------- Post added at 20:25 ---------- Previous post was at 20:22 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris

The existence of the Brexit party is really muddying the waters now. It’s by no means clear that they would contest a general election, nor is it an easy matter to work out what that potential national vote share would look like constituency by constituency, as they’ve never stood for election before.

The electoral landscape is such that I think the chances of there being one before the 5-year term is up is minimal.

It is far too early to speculate on a General Election.

The Brexit Party is focussed on the EU elections, and if they win the day and parliament actually listens at last, there will be no need for them to stand at the General Election.

**Mick** · 11-05-2019, 22:28

Bombshell: ComRes General Election poll in tomorrow's Telegraph finds the Brexit Party have overtaken the Conservative Party.

Labour: 27%
Brexit Party: 20%
Conservative: 19%

Mr K · 11-05-2019, 22:34

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick

Bombshell: ComRes General Election poll in tomorrow's Telegraph finds the Brexit Party have overtaken the Conservative Party.

Labour: 27%
Brexit Party: 20%
Conservative: 19%

You forgot to mention who is ahead of both those parties....

**Mick** · 11-05-2019, 22:41

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K

You forgot to mention who is ahead of both those parties....

I forgot nothing because I wasn't talking of the party that's ahead.

Mr K · 11-05-2019, 22:44

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick

I forgot nothing because I wasn't talking of the party that's ahead.

Ok Comrade, I'll let you off

denphone · 13-05-2019, 08:11

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K

You forgot to mention who is ahead of both those parties....

Perhaps you need to look again....

Westminster voting intention.

Quote:

CON: 24% (-5)
LAB: 24% (-5)
BREX: 18% (+3)
LDEM: 16% (+3)
GRN: 7% (+2)

via YouGov , Chgs. w/ 30 Apr.