Brexit

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by jonbxx

But on the balance of probabilities, freedom of movement and programs like Erasmus+ will continue to exist in the EU and those are of benefit for young people

Is Erasmus the engine behind the EU economy?

---------- Post added at 18:24 ---------- Previous post was at 18:22 ----------

Originally Posted by jfman

Half of the electorate support some form of Brexit or another. I, for one, am shocked that a single issue party in a meaningless election didn’t score higher.

Evidence that support for Brexit is eroding for me.

It’s the way you tell ‘em.

[jfman]

It’s been obvious for some time that Labour and the Conservatives won’t deliver Brexit. A single issue party should hoover up the 52% (if they still exist).

Even if, through self preservation, the Conservatives coalesce around something the most Brexity outcome will be May’s deal.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by jfman

Half of the electorate support some form of Brexit or another. I, for one, am shocked that a single issue party in a meaningless election didn’t score higher.

Evidence that support for Brexit is eroding for me.

Not really. There are many Conservative leavers who will vote Conservative rather than for Brexit, and the same can be said for Labour leavers.

The fact that a brand new party can command this level of support this early in its short life is nothing short of amazing.

Strange that you seem to think that support for Brexit is waning when this new party is clearly much more popular than the rest! They are set to be the largest UK party in the EU if Parliament can't get its act together and leave. This poll should be a sobering wake up call for all MPs. Deliver a proper Brexit now, or else.

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by Hugh

You seem to confuse "identifying and assessing impacts of issues" with "very negative".

With a negative approach the outcome is bound to be negative.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Not really. There are many Conservative leavers who will vote Conservative rather than for Brexit, and the same can be said for Labour leavers.

The fact that a brand new party can command this level of support this early in its short life is nothing short of amazing.

Strange that you seem to think that support for Brexit is waning when this new party is clearly much more popular than the rest! They are set to be the largest UK party in the EU if Parliament can't get its act together and leave. This poll should be a sobering wake up call for all MPs. Deliver a proper Brexit now, or else.

Are they? You can’t quantify that claim as true. There’s no rational reason why a leave voter would stay with Conservatives/Labour in an election to offices they dint want to exist anyway.

Or else what? In a FPTP general election the Brexit party falls like a stone much like UKIP previously. A general election matters - we could get Corbyn after all, a European one doesn’t.

There’s nothing amazing about this poll. It’s entirely predictable. The question is whether someone else can become an effective vehicle for remain/2nd ref and get the rest of the Con/Lab votes. A brand new party, led by Farage, isn’t really new at all.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by jfman

Are they? You can’t quantify that claim as true. There’s no rational reason why a leave voter would stay with Conservatives/Labour in an election to offices they dint want to exist anyway.

Or else what? In a FPTP general election the Brexit party falls like a stone much like UKIP previously. A general election matters - we could get Corbyn after all, a European one doesn’t.

There’s nothing amazing about this poll. It’s entirely predictable. The question is whether someone else can become an effective vehicle for remain/2nd ref and get the rest of the Con/Lab votes. A brand new party, led by Farage, isn’t really new at all.

You know very well that Labour and Conservative diehards will never vote for any other party. Do you seriously believe that ALL such voters voted for UKIP last time? Of course they didn't. It'll be the same this time, except that more of these voters will want to demonstrate that they've had enough, and will vote Brexit out of sheer frustration. That does NOT mean that there are no leavers voting Conservative or Labour, though.

The remainder of your post I did find amusing, and entirely predictable! UKIP never got such a good poll as this one.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

You know very well that Labour and Conservative diehards will never vote for any other party. Do you seriously believe that ALL such voters voted for UKIP last time? Of course they didn't. It'll be the same this time, except that more of these voters will want to demonstrate that they've had enough, and will vote Brexit out of sheer frustration. That does NOT mean that there are no leavers voting Conservative or Labour, though.

The remainder of your post I did find amusing, and entirely predictable! UKIP never got such a good poll as this one.

These people may exist but in what numbers? Is Brexit more important than the party? Once again you are resorting to relying on conjecture, supposition and your own observations.

None of which change the fact Brexit is under existential threat and 27% of the population getting angry in a European election is far less than 52%.

[jonbxx]

Originally Posted by Carth

The problem is, to misquote, not all young people are created equal. I can't see the majority of the UK unemployed youngsters rushing off to work in factories, hotels, fast food outlets or nursing homes in the Eastern European Countries . . . can you?

It's the fact that the opportunity has been removed. The opportunity to grow, develop and work your way up. Yes, some young will start low and stay there but to be honest, they aren't the ones likely to be mobile. You could say however that old Norman Tebbits' 'get on your bike and find work has become more limited. It's the ones willing to take the risk and reap the rewards that have had that opportunity taken away.

In my twenties, I worked in three countries outside the UK, two of which were thanks to EU freedom of movement. It's a challenge but you get to know about yourself and other cultures and get broader horizons than you get from just living and working in one country. If I am looking at CVs, seeing employment abroad is a big plus for me as I understand the resilience needed to do this. I would be very happy if my kids went abroad to work in a summer job at 18 or something as it makes you a more rounded character.

---------- Post added at 20:52 ---------- Previous post was at 20:50 ----------

Originally Posted by Pierre

Is Erasmus the engine behind the EU economy?

No, it's an engine behind the EU economy for the future but not the sole engine. Training the next generation...

Here are some famous Erasmus graduates - http://www.programmallp.it/lkmw_file.../famous_en.pdf

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by jonbxx

No, it's an engine behind the EU economy for the future but not the sole engine. Training the next generation...

Here are some famous Erasmus graduates - http://www.programmallp.it/lkmw_file.../famous_en.pdf

So are you saying because of Erasmus, and perhaps other programmes” you can guarantee that staying in the EU will not be to the detriment of my kids and their kids. You can guarantee it? As that is how this particular thread started?

[jfman]

With the best will in the world remain isn’t going to win the argument by making the case for rich kids to get a jolly abroad while studying. Whether this is the reality or not it’s the perception. Essentially you are trying to then win two arguments, in favour of Erasmus which people who voted leave are less likely to participate in and then remain.

[Angua]

Originally Posted by jfman

With the best will in the world remain isn’t going to win the argument by making the case for rich kids to get a jolly abroad while studying. Whether this is the reality or not it’s the perception. Essentially you are trying to then win two arguments, in favour of Erasmus which people who voted leave are less likely to participate in and then remain.

I don't think any argument for remaining would sway those who want Brexit who post in this thread.

Originally Posted by Angua

I don't think any argument for remaining would sway those who want Brexit who post in this thread.

This is because we heard the arguments in 2016, and made informed choices. I know that’s hard to believe but it is true. The facts, the potential risks and benefits haven’t changed in 3 years, despite the massive parliamentary chimps tea party designed to make us soil ourselves in fear and repent of daring to vote leave.

Originally Posted by Chris

This is because we heard the arguments in 2016, and made informed choices. I know that’s hard to believe but it is true. The facts, the potential risks and benefits haven’t changed in 3 years, despite the massive parliamentary chimps tea party designed to make us soil ourselves in fear and repent of daring to vote leave.

But the arguments you made ‘informed choices" on were sub-optimal interpretations of actuality (lies).

“The day after we vote to leave, we hold all the cards and we can choose the path we want.”

We were told we would replicate, or improve, all the Trade Deals the E.U. has

“The free trade agreement we will have to do should be one of the easiest in human history,”

“There will continue to be free trade and access to the single market”

"Post Brexit a UK-German deal would include free access for their cars and industrial goods, in exchange for a deal on everything else"

"Turkey joining the EU in the near future, bringing 77 million Turks exercising their free movement"

The Vote Leave promise of a free trade area "stretching from Iceland to Turkey"

David Davis, said that Britain would negotiate individual trade deals with other EU countries. EU member states cannot negotiate individual trade deals with outside countries and instead do so as a bloc of 28.

[GrimUpNorth]

Originally Posted by Chris

This is because we heard the arguments in 2016, and made informed choices. I know that’s hard to believe but it is true. The facts, the potential risks and benefits haven’t changed in 3 years, despite the massive parliamentary chimps tea party designed to make us soil ourselves in fear and repent of daring to vote leave.

I think you've just summed up the intransigence of some on the leave side quite well - play down the risks as 'potential' but no such uncertainty about the benefits. In 2016 I voted knowing the risks and potential benefits and I'm getting pretty fed up being grouped with the hard liners. I think many people had their own reasons for voting the way they did which are not the same as yours. To use your phrase from above - I know that's hard to believe but it's true.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Angua

I don't think any argument for remaining would sway those who want Brexit who post in this thread.

Well, that’s true. However, that’s not a reason to be despondent about the situation. Remain needs to convince just 1 in 17 leave voters to switch sides, and they’re going to come from the “soft” side as opposed to the ideologues.

In fact I’m convinced that change has already happened so it’s just down to Parliament who are going a grand job at fudging Brexit for now.