Brexit (Old)

[RichardCoulter]

There was a programme on Channel 4 last night that looked into the truth about the impact of a no deal Brexit on our food supplies:

https://www.channel4.com/programmes/food-unwrapped

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by jfman

If you really want no deal, and believe it reasonable (and I actually do given specific circumstances) why not call it 1st January 2023? What is there to fear from it?

I think the answer is in the realms of the bleedin' obvious. Anything can happen in 4 years including no Brexit because of the 2022 General Election.

Next week, I think most of the ERG will back May for the 3rd Meaningful Vote, confident they can wreck the treaty at a later date.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

I think the answer is in the realms of the bleedin' obvious. Anything can happen in 4 years including no Brexit because of the 2022 General Election.

That’s fine. However proves why the referendum was a bad choice. You are actually admitting that given a period of time the population as a whole will change their mind!

Originally Posted by Hugh

Next week, I think most of the ERG back May for the 3rd Meaningful Vote, confident they can wreck the treaty at a later date.

I think that’s the only pragmatic stance they can take. Until about a week ago they could still have told themselves No Deal was there to play for but parliamentary manoeuvrings since then have made that impossible. The EU27 will easily agree a short technical delay to allow the WA to be implemented, and they will hold their noses and agree a very long extension if, by the time May goes to the summit, the WA has not been ratified. That very long delay puts No Deal off the table in all but name and pretty much guarantees that Brexit, if it eventually occurs, will be far softer than the present deal allows. It also increases the risk of a further referendum occurring, or a general election. In essence, if the ERG have a brain cell between them they will see that now’s the time to cut their losses and vote the WA through.

---------- Post added at 19:12 ---------- Previous post was at 19:10 ----------

Originally Posted by jfman

That’s fine. However proves why the referendum was a bad choice. You are actually admitting that given a period of time the population as a whole will change their mind!

If subjected to a two year campaign of orchestrated chaos by EU and British government negotiators, all of whom wanted Remain to win and still think that in an ideal world Brexit shouldn’t happen, then yes, a population can be induced to change its mind.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by jfman

That’s fine. However proves why the referendum was a bad choice. You are actually admitting that given a period of time the population as a whole will change their mind!

It's more complex than that. Why should a 2nd referendum result be more valid than the first? That is the issue of principle at stake. Playing for time to cash in on Brexit fatigue is not an honourable course, imo.

In 2022, there may well be political re-alignments along the lines I suggested a few posts ago which would colour matters.

No - we need to leave on 29-March and honour the Referendum.

[Mr K]

Big man Farage has set out on his Brexit March from Sunderland. His massed ranks amounted to 100... (the Peoples Vote march got 670,000).
Apparently His Grace has decided not to do all of it. Doubtless the first and last 100 yards...

Oh, and they'll arrive in London, in time for Brexit not to happen on 29/3..

Originally Posted by Mr K

Big man Farage has set out on his Brexit March from Sunderland. His massed ranks amounted to 100... (the Peoples Vote march got 670,000).
Apparently His Grace has decided not to do all of it. Doubtless the first and last 100 yards...

Oh, and they'll arrive in London, in time for Brexit not to happen on 29/3..

Just as well we have an electoral system that evens things out isn’t it, otherwise whichever cause the professional agitators choose to support would always win.

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Next week, I think most of the ERG will back May for the 3rd Meaningful Vote, confident they can wreck the treaty at a later date.

Yes they'll kowtow to save face in the end. As for wrecking, they've already done that to the country.

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Next week, I think most of the ERG will back May for the 3rd Meaningful Vote, confident they can wreck the treaty at a later date.

That would demonstrate that we have a less free democracy than North Korea. At least there you can vote without a "gun to the head".

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

It's more complex than that. Why should a 2nd referendum result be more valid than the first? That is the issue of principle at stake. Playing for time to cash in on Brexit fatigue is not an honourable course, imo.

In 2022, there may well be political re-alignments along the lines I suggested a few posts ago which would colour matters.

No - we need to leave on 29-March and honour the Referendum.

The opinion of the present is always more valid than the opinion of the past.

If prole are fatigued by the lack of the courage in their convictions, or that they realise the promises of Brexit are lies, that’s all democracy if given a further choice.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Next week, I think most of the ERG will back May for the 3rd Meaningful Vote, confident they can wreck the treaty at a later date.

Depends if a third vote is actually held. Nothing is a given in this post-Brexit vote political world. Per Robert Peston:

Although the prime minister wants to hold another “meaningful vote” on her Brexit plan next week, it is by no means certain that, when it comes to the crunch, she will choose to do so.
I am told by her close colleagues, that two conditions must be met for her to go ahead with the vote, probably on Tuesday.
First, Northern Ireland’s DUP must say on Monday that they have, at the last, changed their minds and have decided to vote with her.
To be clear, there is no logical reason why they should do this, given that there will be no last-minute alteration to what they hate most about her deal - namely the backstop which is designed to keep open the border on the island of Ireland and is enshrined in the Withdrawal Agreement.

https://www.itv.com/news/2019-03-16/...esa-mays-deal/

[Mr K]

The DUP are in the bag already, they've been paid off.

What I'd really like to ask any Brexiteer who has miraculously changed their mind - How is TMs deal better than the status quo and what's changed? Answers on a postcard.....

Originally Posted by Mr K

The DUP are in the bag already, they've been paid off.

What I'd really like to ask any Brexiteer who has miraculously changed their mind - How is TMs deal better than the status quo and what's changed? Answers on a postcard.....

Try to think of it from the point of view of a Maastricht rebel, or anyone else who has objected to our membership of what the EU became as a result of that treaty (made effective in the UK via the European Communities (Amendment) Act 1993).

It has been a very long game to get to this point. Whatever the withdrawal agreement says, it is, crucially, a treaty between the European Union and a third party. We are going to be outside the EU. That is the critical victory we have won. What we do with that status - what “changes”, as you put it - is for future generations of voters and politicians to decide. The point is, British policy is decided in Britain, not Brussels. That’s something I think some of the ERG have lost sight of in the febrile atmosphere of the past few weeks.

[djfunkdup]

Originally Posted by Chris

Try to think of it from the point of view of a Maastricht rebel, or anyone else who has objected to our membership of what the EU became as a result of that treaty (made effective in the UK via the European Communities (Amendment) Act 1993).

It has been a very long game to get to this point. Whatever the withdrawal agreement says, it is, crucially, a treaty between the European Union and a third party. We are going to be outside the EU. That is the critical victory we have won. What we do with that status - what “changes”, as you put it - is for future generations of voters and politicians to decide. The point is, British policy is decided in Britain, not Brussels. That’s something I think some of the ERG have lost sight of in the febrile atmosphere of the past few weeks.

Totally agree it's such a nice warm feeling the closer we get.It has been such a long and tedious journey at times but worth the wait