02-03-2019, 17:58
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#7966
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laeva recumbens anguis
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Jun 2006
Age: 68
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Posts: 43,794
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Re: Brexit
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth
My point is that some people are exaggerating the economic strength of the EU when set against ours. Disingenuousness in this debate is polarising and unhelpful.
314m is a come down from 500m.
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UK GDP in 2017 2,622 billion US dollars.
EU GDP in 2017 15,300 billion US dollars
EU GDP without UK GDP 12,678 billion US dollars
Nearly five times the UK GDP - I would say that gives them a lot more negotiating power...
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02-03-2019, 18:07
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#7967
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Perfect Soldier
Join Date: Mar 2009
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Re: Brexit
£40 billion hole in their budget gives us a pretty effective stick.
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History is much like an endless waltz: The three beats of war, peace and revolution continue on forever.
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02-03-2019, 18:10
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#7968
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cf.mega poster
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 15,411
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Re: Brexit
Quote:
Originally Posted by heero_yuy
£40 billion hole in their budget gives us a pretty effective stick.
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Hmm, if that's a pretty effective stick, I'd shudder to see what an ineffective one would give us. 
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02-03-2019, 18:26
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#7969
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Wisdom & truth
Join Date: Jul 2009
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Posts: 12,628
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Re: Brexit
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh
UK GDP in 2017 2,622 billion US dollars.
EU GDP in 2017 15,300 billion US dollars
EU GDP without UK GDP 12,678 billion US dollars
Nearly five times the UK GDP - I would say that gives them a lot more negotiating power...
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…. of which German GDP was 3,677 billion USD and which, incidentally, is pretty much in proportion to their respective populations.
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Seph.
My advice is at your risk.
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02-03-2019, 19:17
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#7970
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laeva recumbens anguis
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Jun 2006
Age: 68
Services: Premiere Collection
Posts: 43,794
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Re: Brexit
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth
…. of which German GDP was 3,677 billion USD and which, incidentally, is pretty much in proportion to their respective populations.
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Relevance to the original point you raised? - which was
Quote:
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some people are exaggerating the economic strength of the EU when set against ours.
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They negotiate as a bloc with 5 times the GDP of the UK, which gives them more negotiating power.
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Last edited by Hugh; 02-03-2019 at 19:21.
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02-03-2019, 19:18
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#7971
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Architect of Ideas
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 11,146
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Re: Brexit
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth
…. of which German GDP was 3,677 billion USD and which, incidentally, is pretty much in proportion to their respective populations.
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Which in many respects isn’t considered when it comes to negotiating a trade deal with the EU. Do you want access to bigger markets or smaller ones? Do the bigger markets hold more of the aces in negotiations? Almost always yes.
Does a Japanese car manufacturer care if the buyer is in Berlin or Bratislava? Probably not.
The Common Fisheries Policy is going to look quite cheap compared to the concessions the US will demand.
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02-03-2019, 19:19
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#7972
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laeva recumbens anguis
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Jun 2006
Age: 68
Services: Premiere Collection
Posts: 43,794
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Re: Brexit
Quote:
Originally Posted by heero_yuy
£40 billion hole in their budget gives us a pretty effective stick.
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Since the net cost of the EU budget is £9 billion, not sure how that equates to a £40 billion hole in their budget?
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02-03-2019, 19:25
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#7973
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Perfect Soldier
Join Date: Mar 2009
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Re: Brexit
Because they'll still be getting that over two years and won't be giving us anything back. May's already surrendered that. Sold out!
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History is much like an endless waltz: The three beats of war, peace and revolution continue on forever.
However history will change with my coronation - Mariemaia Khushrenada
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02-03-2019, 19:30
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#7974
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laeva recumbens anguis
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Jun 2006
Age: 68
Services: Premiere Collection
Posts: 43,794
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Re: Brexit
Quote:
Originally Posted by heero_yuy
Because they'll still be getting that over two years and won't be giving us anything back. May's already surrendered that. Sold out!
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If we don’t pay, we will have abrogated our agreed treaty - why would any other country trust us to honour future treaty agreements with them?
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02-03-2019, 20:05
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#7975
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cf.mega poster
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 15,411
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Re: Brexit
Quote:
Originally Posted by heero_yuy
May's already surrendered that. Sold out!
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That's what happens when a weaker body negotiates with a stronger one. We need to be realistic and accept that it will be the way of future trade deals when we are dealing with stronger countries and blocs. It's time to put away the "they need us more than we need them" reality and be businesslike and realistic.
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02-03-2019, 20:45
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#7976
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cf.mega poster
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Hiding . . from all the experts
Posts: 4,456
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Re: Brexit
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh
If we don’t pay, we will have abrogated our agreed treaty
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What happens if we don't pay . . will they kick us out?
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“You get a wonderful view from the point of no return.” ~ T. Pratchett
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02-03-2019, 20:58
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#7977
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Woke and proud !
Join Date: Jun 2004
Services: TV, Phone, BB, a wife
Posts: 9,952
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Re: Brexit
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carth
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They'd sue us and win, and no other country would do any sort of deal with us.
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02-03-2019, 21:06
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#7978
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Still alive and fighting
Join Date: Jun 2007
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Posts: 56,657
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Re: Brexit
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr K
They'd sue us and win, and no other country would do any sort of deal with us.
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Bad debtors soon get a bad reputation...
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“The only lesson you can learn from history is that it repeats itself”
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03-03-2019, 01:51
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#7979
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cf.mega poster
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 15,411
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Re: Brexit
Another nail in the coffin for 29/3.
Quote:
Theresa May will have to delay Brexit even if she gets her exit plan through parliament this month, Michel Barnier has said.
The EU’s chief negotiator said there was now not enough time for the European Union to ratify the withdrawal agreement, even if MPs back the plan in a vote expected to be held on 12 March.
In a joint interview with several European newspapers, Mr Barnier also said the EU was willing to provide further assurances that the backstop will be temporary.
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https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a8804381.html
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03-03-2019, 03:37
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#7980
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cf.mega poster
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Hiding . . from all the experts
Posts: 4,456
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Re: Brexit
"Theresa May will have to delay Brexit even if she gets her exit plan through parliament this month, Michel Barnier has said."
No she doesn't, all she has to do is say "ok I've had enough of the crap you're throwing around, it's no deal, end of"
. . but she won't because she's a remainer
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