Brexit (Old)

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by jfman

If our first action as a truly independent and “sovereign” nation is to renege on our debts to the European Union our credit ratings will collapse and we will be considered as negotiating in bad faith by any prospective trading partner.

Not going to happen.

Our debt to the EU upon a no deal exit amount to some £19 billion; the rest is transition money which we don't have to pay.

Can't you see that or are you just being difficult?

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

Our debt to the EU upon a no deal exit amount to some £19 billion; the rest is transition money which we don't have to pay.

Can't you see that or are you just being difficult?

If we genuinely don’t have to pay it all then that’s fair enough - I’ve never seen anything make then distinction but that’s not to say it isn’t out there. But I think it’s unlikely that the EU hasn’t prepared for this eventuality all along.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by jfman

If we genuinely don’t have to pay it all then that’s fair enough - I’ve never seen anything make then distinction but that’s not to say it isn’t out there. But I think it’s unlikely that the EU hasn’t prepared for this eventuality all along.

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/eu-divorce-bill

Sets out the numbers.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/eu-divorce-bill

Sets out the numbers.

“That set out a total bill of €41.4bn (£37.1bn), extending out to 2064 as pension liabilities fall due.

But it also makes clear that around half consist of payments the UK will make during the transition phase. The OBR estimates net payments under the financial settlement of €18.5bn (£16.4bn) in 2019 and 2020, during the transition, followed by net payments of €7.6bn in 2021, €5.8bn (2022) €3.1bn (2023) and €1.7bn (2024) before falling away to €0.2bn in 2028. The liabilities, net of assets, that then remain to be paid amount to a total of €2.7bn over the period 2021–45.”

It doesn’t actually say that those are transitional costs, just that the payments are due in 2019 and 2020.

[denphone]

Conservative MP Sam Gyimah in parliament.

Tory MP Sam Gyimah, who resigned from the government in opposition to the Brexit deal, says it is right for the PM to call on MPs to honour the referendum, but the 2017 general election led to the loss of a Conservative majority and gridlock in Parliament.

There's no majority amongst MPs, he says, and if the prime minister cannot reach an agreement MPs cannot support then "it's not Parliament frustrating the will of the people, the general election led to an outcome that cannot lead to a clear decision".

"In which case," he says, "we should not be afraid give it back to the people."

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by jfman

“That set out a total bill of €41.4bn (£37.1bn), extending out to 2064 as pension liabilities fall due.

But it also makes clear that around half consist of payments the UK will make during the transition phase. The OBR estimates net payments under the financial settlement of €18.5bn (£16.4bn) in 2019 and 2020, during the transition, followed by net payments of €7.6bn in 2021, €5.8bn (2022) €3.1bn (2023) and €1.7bn (2024) before falling away to €0.2bn in 2028. The liabilities, net of assets, that then remain to be paid amount to a total of €2.7bn over the period 2021–45.”

It doesn’t actually say that those are transitional costs, just that the payments are due in 2019 and 2020.

The £39 billion includes the 20 months of transition at the going annual rate. If there is no transition, there is nothing due for that period. The timing of payments that are due would then be rescheduled to keep us honest. Obvs.

[denphone]

Originally Posted by jonbxx

These shenanigans really does make you wonder what does a leader have to do to get the boot these days. Along with certain other leaders, it seems that you can do anything now and get away with it and if you get called on it, just deny everything!

Politicians who were at the top 10-20 years ago must be so jealous...

l thought before today it was a complete and utter shambles but the omnishambles has reached a new high today sadly.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

The £39 billion includes the 20 months of transition at the going annual rate. If there is no transition, there is nothing due for that period. The timing of payments that are due would then be rescheduled to keep us honest. Obvs.

Yes, but the calculation that we wouldn’t pay £16.4bn is wrong, as we’d still be liable for some commitments (commitments lasting until 2064 regardless of how we leave).

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Carth

Maybe it's not the shambles that we think it is.

Let's go back to the referendum result, the one where the public voted to leave the EU.

After the result was in, Government, Business and Financial sectors should have started to make preparations for leaving the EU . . including the so called 'hard brexit'.

Instead they all sat around scratching their heads, looking uncomfortable and muttering 'well that didn't go how we thought it would'.

Then some bright spark decided the best way to deal with it was to fudge, obfuscate, manipulate, and spread dissent so that it all decended into a farce that would end with no brexit at all.

Sounds accurate to me.

[Hom3r]

I love how the SNP question the legality of the backstop, then have the nerve to call for an illegal 2nd referendum.

What message would that send to first time votes who voted leave, only to discover it could be change by crybabies who didn't get their way.

I for one wouldn't vote again.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by jfman

Why else do you think they are legislating on the basis that they are integral to the process?

Well it’s not legislating exactly though is it. It’s political manoeuvring.

It’s a non-binding amendment to a vote that hasn't happened yet.

Indeed the vote could happen at 23:00 on March 28th, thereby leaving the Greave amendment useless.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by jfman

Yes, but the calculation that we wouldn’t pay £16.4bn is wrong, as we’d still be liable for some commitments (commitments lasting until 2064 regardless of how we leave).

£39 billion - (2 x £10 billion) = £19 billion.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by jfman

I think they’ll extend Article 50, it’s too early to revoke it.

They can ask to have it extended, but if there doesn’t seem to be any clear resolution to this the EU27 won’t allow the can to be kicked so far.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

£39 billion - (2 x £10 billion) = £19 billion.

I’m at a loss as to where the 2x £10bn comes from. Is that our net contribution? If it is that’ll include things we can’t walk away from, like Nigel Farage’s pension.

---------- Post added at 18:42 ---------- Previous post was at 18:40 ----------

Originally Posted by Pierre

Well it’s not legislating exactly though is it. It’s political manoeuvring.

It’s a non-binding amendment to a vote that hasn't happened yet.

Indeed the vote could happen at 23:00 on March 28th, thereby leaving the Greave amendment useless.

That’s a clever idea to hold the vote so late as to force no deal. We will be done for.

How does she plan on winning the vote of no confidence though?

---------- Post added at 18:43 ---------- Previous post was at 18:42 ----------

Originally Posted by Pierre

They can ask to have it extended, but if there doesn’t seem to be any clear resolution to this the EU27 won’t allow the can to be kicked so far.

The EU have nothing to lose, and everything to gain, by leaving us in limbo.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by jfman

That’s a clever idea to hold the vote so late as to force no deal. We will be done for.

How does she plan on winning the vote of no confidence though?

Could all happen, if May is actually tied up in Rees-Mogg’s basement and what we are seeing no is an android doppelgänger. Based on today’s antics..........could be.

The EU have nothing to lose, and everything to gain, by leaving us in limbo.

It’s interesting but whatever is going to happen, is not going to happen with out some future major movement from the EU, otherwise Hard Brexit is a real possibility. So depends whether they will move or not faced with that.

Everybody insists that the EU hold all the cards.

There is no appetite for. No deal Brexit in the UK, i’m Sure there is no appetite for one in the EU either, as it gets closer to March 29th we may be surprised by what happens.