Brexit (Old)

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by jonbxx

So I guess you are happy with how the government has performed since 2016 in this respect?

When almost all of the forecasts indicate a downturn in performance of the UK economy even with trade deals. For example, the recent government study takes in to account that we will have comprehensive trade deals according to government policy with United States, Australia, New Zealand, Malaysia, Brunei, China, India, Mercosur (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay) and the Gulf-Cooperation Council (UAE, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain)

The question is, if almost all forecasts indicate a downturn in the economy then we need to talk about how much rather than whether it will happen. See climate change studies as a similar example.. If the methodology is flawed, then where are the 'correcting' studies by other groups or is the entire science of economics flawed?

I hope you are right and the negative impacts are low but we need to be ready in case this is not the case. Personally, in my situation, we can absorb a fair level of financial shock (Brexit proofing our mortgage with a really long term fixed rate for example) and most of my work comes from the EU rather than the UK. I am worried this will not be the case for everyone though.

You are being specious in your assertion of a 'downturn in the economy'.

The currently issued forecasts talk about lower economic GROWTH, which in no way means a 'downturn in the economy'.

It would help if you acknowledged this.

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by Mr K

Why do you want no deal? It isn't plain and simple.

Hyperinflation, job losses, empty supermarket shelves, no health cover abroad. Either people genuinely don't realise or its a form of masochism.... The 'experts' can't do the impossible and make a crap situation good. Thankfully most MPs realise it, from all sides.

On what do you base this assumption?

Under WHO rules if WE don't impose tariffs on any EU goods without a deal, which is our perogative, then any other imports will also be free of tariff.

This doesn't mean we have to import from any other Country, just that if we do it must be on the same basis until a deal is made. A deal doesn't have to be with the EU either.

In essence, there won't be any empty supermarket shelves, oh and rice will come down in price as there will no longer an EU imposed tariff on it.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by pip08456

On what do you base this assumption?

Under WHO rules if WE don't impose tariffs on any EU goods without a deal, which is our perogative, then any other imports will also be free of tariff.

This doesn't mean we have to import from any other Country, just that if we do it must be on the same basis until a deal is made. A deal doesn't have to be with the EU either.

In essence, there won't be any empty supermarket shelves, oh and rice will come down in price as there will no longer an EU imposed tariff on it.

So we will lose the ability to negotiate meaningful trade deals with anyone - nobody can compete with the EU if they flood the UK with tariff free goods/services on our doorstep.

Even our own companies will be harmed from this as their exports will be hit by tariffs in the EU side, so we won’t be competing on a level playing field.

We will also lose the benefit of tax revenue from tariffs.

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by jfman

The stockpiling of food as a contingency indicates that people are spending money now to mitigate against that likelihood. I fail to see how it warrants the dunce cap when preparations are being made.

No it indicates they have fallen to the project fear initiative.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by pip08456

No it indicates they have fallen to the project fear initiative.

It’s costing money to do so, I doubt those doing it are taking the decision lightly.

[Carth]

stockpiling food? really? I must say I haven't heard of people doing that, maybe I read the wrong papers

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

You are so funny, Mr K! You were trying to be funny, weren't you? This post of yours was hilarious!

Well, OB empty shelves are a definite possibility in a no deal scenario, at least initially. Lorries getting stuck at the ports with checks and the public panic buying.

What is amusing though is your total devotion to TM and her achieving 'pure Brexit'

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Carth

stockpiling food? really? I must say I haven't heard of people doing that, maybe I read the wrong papers

There’s certainly been examples in the gutter press. Even in the wider economy other stockpiling is going on.

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/...mpression=true

[Carth]

aah the gutter press . . I was correct then I don't read the right papers

[jfman]

The link above quotes the Chief Exec of a logistics firm. Someone who could actually be prosecuted if he is misleading on the performance of the company.

[Carth]

quote from article *Wincanton added that extra work with budget retailers such as Ikea and Wilko helped to make up for lost contracts with Premier Foods and Tesco*


so . . they lost contracts with Premier Foods and Tesco . . even though they're stockpiling food?

come on

[jfman]

His company wasn’t specifically stockpiling food, if you read the article though he says that stockpiling is taking place improving the performance of his company.

[Carth]

No wait on there . . you linked to an article in regards to a discussion about stockpiling food . . .

[denphone]

Originally Posted by Mr K

Well, OB empty shelves are a definite possibility in a no deal scenario, at least initially. Lorries getting stuck at the ports with checks and the public panic buying.

What is amusing though is your total devotion to TM and her achieving 'pure Brexit'

l have no devotion to any politician thus one is does not have a rose tinted blinkered view on our not so glorious politicians.

[jfman]

There’s certainly been examples in the gutter press. Even in the wider economy other stockpiling is going on.

My emphasis in bold.