Brexit (Old)

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Not sure that the EU would be happy for an extension unless the UK contributed to the EU budget and doubt Messrs Gove, Johnson and Rees-Mogg would be keen.
But if the Cabinet can't agree on Friday then I guess extending the road so that Theresa May can continue to kick her tin can down it is a possibility.

I have no doubt they will agree, Andrew. And it will be a version of maximum facilitation. It's the obvious way forward.

[Gavin78]

I think we should simply go for a hard brexit if we are not closer to a deal by March next year. The EU is playing hard ball seeing how long the UK will hold out. No point extending out to have another year or 2 of nothing and paying more wasted money into the EU for a large bill to pay for leaving as well.

[Sephiroth]

OB makes an excellent point about the £80 billion and how likely it would be that the agreement he suggests will happen, albeit at the last minute.

Remainers usually avoid this part of the discussion.

The EU is waiting for us to tell them what we want. That is finally, apparently, being sorted this week but we'll see. Every time the deadline comes the Government fudges it because May is too weak to take on her cabinet.

[Chloé Palmas]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

I have no doubt they will agree, Andrew. And it will be a version of maximum facilitation. It's the obvious way forward.

Then the EU will say no...next plan?

As for them all agreeing, of course they will. They won't climb down any...May will. She will cave to all their demands, like she always does.

Then the EU will say no (like they have on everything else), which May will have to submit on and round the circle goes.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Chloé Palmas

Then the EU will say no...next plan?

As for them all agreeing, of course they will. They won't climb down any...May will. She will cave to all their demands, like she always does.

Then the EU will say no (like they have on everything else), which May will have to submit on and round the circle goes.

Do you think May will present both customs options to the EU? Both will be likely declined anyway unless they've changed substantially from what was previously described.

[Chloé Palmas]

Originally Posted by Chris

The CF account is used by either Paul or Mick. It is used when either of the site owners wish to give the clearest possible directions about forum conduct at the highest level.

Yeah also a lot of sites use a generic staff admin account to have the good temperament of plausible deniability, which is great.

You just narrowed it down to 2 possible culprits lol...I'd leave it open to interpretation that all of the staff may have had the chance to make the call, lol.

I am a brat like that.

/Rasp

The idea is for members to engage exclusively with the contents of the post without getting hung up on the personality behind it.

Back to seriousness, if there are any posts from the previous thread aimed our way that we can reply to or do we just let that go...I think that there were a couple aimed at me but I didn't have the time this week / weekend to reply to them - should I just forget about them now / answer them here etc?

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Damien

The EU is waiting for us to tell them what we want. That is finally, apparently, being sorted this week but we'll see. Every time the deadline comes the Government fudges it because May is too weak to take on her cabinet.

Simply because of the lack of a majority, of course.

[Chloé Palmas]

Which makes your decision to say that it was a good idea to call an election all the more baffling.

It wasn't just executed poorly, it was a dreadful idea. (She was always going to lose).

[Dave42]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Simply because of the lack of a majority, of course.

the infighting more likely OB they always been infighting about Europe even when they had majority's

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Chloé Palmas

Then the EU will say no...next plan?
Q
As for them all agreeing, of course they will. They won't climb down any...May will. She will cave to all their demands, like she always does.

Then the EU will say no (like they have on everything else), which May will have to submit on and round the circle goes.

You're wrong there, Chloé. It's approaching 'get real' time. If we don't get anywhere with the EU, May will simply go for the hard Brexit. However, I think she is trying to avoid that by getting other EU countries on side. They have a firmer grasp of reality than Barnier & co.

I think a lot of bad things about the EU, but I don't think they are actually certifiably mad, and that we will get a deal with them.

If we don't things don't look good for the EU. They won't get their €40bn, they will suffer through what will happen to their exports to us, and they will have a new upstart competitor sporting lower tax rates for business with whom they cannot compete. Seriously, if you were Barnier, would you really dig your heels in?

---------- Post added at 19:12 ---------- Previous post was at 19:10 ----------

Originally Posted by Chloé Palmas

Which makes your decision to say that it was a good idea to call an election all the more baffling.

It wasn't just executed poorly, it was a dreadful idea. (She was always going to lose).

Nobody expected her to lose at first. The dreadful truth began to dawn during the election campaign.

---------- Post added at 19:16 ---------- Previous post was at 19:12 ----------

Originally Posted by Dave42

the infighting more likely OB they always been infighting about Europe even when they had majority's

It now looks as though the battle for minds has been won. The Cabinet meeting on Friday will agree the way forward. It will be a deal involving maximum facilitation or a hard Brexit. Basically, that is our choice, and I think finally, the remainers and Brexiteers are beginning to agree that there is no other way forward.

[Chloé Palmas]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Do you think May will present both customs options to the EU?

That is an interesting conundrum - actually can she even present both? I am not sure on the aspect of white paper traditions / customs - can it be an either / or option?

Chris / Hugh / Damien etc might know but I am assuming that she will have no choice but to narrow it down to one?

Both will be likely declined anyway unless they've changed substantially from what was previously described.

Yeah I figure the EU will tell Davis / Department for existing the EU that they either accept the principles or get no access to the SM / agree to collective trade deals or have tariffs and barriers / allow NI to remain a part of the EU SM or face a hard border etc etc.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Chloé Palmas

That is an interesting conundrum - actually can she even present both? I am not sure on the aspect of white paper traditions / customs - can it be an either / or option?

Chris / Hugh / Damien etc might know but I am assuming that she will have no choice but to narrow it down to one?



Yeah I figure the EU will tell Davis / Department for existing the EU that they either accept the principles or get no access to the SM / agree to collective trade deals or have tariffs and barriers / allow NI to remain a part of the EU SM or face a hard border etc etc.

Theresa May will not agree to present both options to the EU because the customs partnership option involves remaining in the customs union, which means we can't do our own trade deals. This isn't even an option, as it strips away the advantage for us in leaving the EU - in fact, it leaves us in a worse position than we have now. How does that make sense for the UK?

[Dave42]

hard Brexit will be a utter disaster for uk falling of cliff edge and the ones that voted Brexit be first ones to complain

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Dave42

hard Brexit will be a utter disaster for uk falling of cliff edge and the ones that voted Brexit be first ones to complain

No, it won't, you've fallen for the Project Fear argument.

There may be initial minor disruption, but our future still looks great with a 'no deal'. The EU would live to regret its decision in that scenario.

---------- Post added at 19:34 ---------- Previous post was at 19:33 ----------

Originally Posted by Chloé Palmas

That is an interesting conundrum - actually can she even present both? I am not sure on the aspect of white paper traditions / customs - can it be an either / or option?

Chris / Hugh / Damien etc might know but I am assuming that she will have no choice but to narrow it down to one?



Yeah I figure the EU will tell Davis / Department for existing the EU that they either accept the principles or get no access to the SM / agree to collective trade deals or have tariffs and barriers / allow NI to remain a part of the EU SM or face a hard border etc etc.

In which case, the EU lose.