[Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

To be honest remains negative fear mongering has worked and enough people will be scared and vote to remain best we can do is hope the leave number is high enough to trigger it in other countries.

[Ramrod]

Originally Posted by Pierre

You can be as naïve as you like.

If you want access to the EU single market you have to open your borders. It is really as simple as that.

http://ec.europa.eu/growth/single-market/index_en.htm

How does that work with respect to other countries that trade with the EU? Taiwan, Korea, Japan, South Africa etc? Have they had to open their borders to the EU?

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Ramrod

How does that work with respect to other countries that trade with the EU? Taiwan, Korea, Japan, South Africa etc? Have they had to open their borders to the EU?

I'm confused too.

I read this but still not really any the wiser.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36083664

They quote EFTA here, and that we could be part of it, and they also quote Switzerland but in both those scenarios they have agreed to the single market principal of free movement of people.

Bottom line as I see it, is that we would still have to agree to free movement of people or no deal would be done.

[jonbxx]

It depends on whether you want a free trade agreement with no or limited tariffs (you mentioned South Korea - the EU has an FTA for most but not all products) or a customs union which is a free trade agreement with harmonised external tariffs.

FTAs can cover all products or some. I think the sticking point of an FTA after Brexit would be financial services and agriculture (Frankfurt and the French farmers might have something to say about it) Switzerlands FTA does not cover financial services well and Norways does not cover fisheries for example.

[Ramrod]

That's clearly impractical in the case of the countries that I mentioned. Therefore there has to be a way of having a trade deal without the free movement of people along with it.

edit. Just read the post above

[Big Brian]

That's that. No going back now. Voted LEAVE YEY!

---------- Post added at 13:23 ---------- Previous post was at 13:21 ----------

Originally Posted by Pierre

I'm confused too.

I read this but still not really any the wiser.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36083664

They quote EFTA here, and that we could be part of it, and they also quote Switzerland but in both those scenarios they have agreed to the single market principal of free movement of people.

Bottom line as I see it, is that we would still have to agree to free movement of people or no deal would be done.

That would depend on how badly they want our trade.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Big Brian

]

That would depend on how badly they want our trade.

and how badly we want theirs?

Remember trade-deals are not two-way streets nor all-encompassing. What you can get is relative to your bargaining clout (i.e size of addressable market you're opening up to them) and even then it can cover somethings and not others. It will be vital for us to get similar level of access as we have now for our services industry, especially finance. That would probably be our priority in any negotiation.

But we have a population of 64 million. Germany and France alone have a combined size of 146 million.

The EU would have a stronger hand in any negotiation unless Leave have a trick up their sleeve.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Pierre

We can leave the EU anytime we like. Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon provides for this.

You don't need a referendum the government of the day can just do it. Although a referendum makes sense if you want to have a clear mandate.

Or you vote for a party that has a clear manifesto pledge to leave the EU, such as UKIP did in 2015.

http://www.ukip.org/ukip_manifesto_summary

It's very simple.

Well I'd agree with all that if UKIP were a credible party of govt. but they're not, yet anyway, so whilst some might vote for them just to get us out of the EU very many more who want to leave probably wouldn't because they're not a credible govt. in all the other areas which matter and 5 years of that sort of Government could create all sorts of issues.

Whilst the two main parties who've run this country for by far the most part since WWII are dead set against the UK leaving, the reality is that leaving isn't simple at all. If we don't get out in June it'd require us to wait for the next general election at least and then elect a shambolic party into govt. Yes we might escape the EU but God only knows what would happen in the interim and in the aftermath.

---------- Post added at 14:25 ---------- Previous post was at 14:05 ----------

Originally Posted by Damien

Remember trade-deals are not two-way streets nor all-encompassing. What you can get is relative to your bargaining clout (i.e size of addressable market you're opening up to them) and even then it can cover somethings and not others. It will be vital for us to get similar level of access as we have now for our services industry, especially finance. That would probably be our priority in any negotiation.

But we have a population of 64 million. Germany and France alone have a combined size of 146 million.

The EU would have a stronger hand in any negotiation unless Leave have a trick up their sleeve.

The economic growth and prospects of the nations concerned are also a major factor and right now the EU isn't exactly forging ahead is it. Then there's the rise of right wing extremism, social unrest, Poland, Turkey etc. etc. It's a perfect storm in the brewing and that doesn't make for a stable long term trading relationship no matter how big the relative populations are.

Originally Posted by Osem

The economic growth and prospects of the nations concerned are also a major factor and right now the EU isn't exactly forging ahead is it. Then there's the rise of right wing extremism, social unrest, Poland, Turkey etc. etc. It's a perfect storm in the brewing and that doesn't make for a stable long term trading relationship no matter how big the relative populations are.

Yes it's not only population. It's not an exact science but it's still the size that what you bring to the table determines how much power you have to demand a favorable deal.

[RichardCoulter]

Not surprising that many politicians from all the main parties want us to stay in the EU; it's a nice little gravy train for when their political careers are over in the UK.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Damien

Yes it's not only population. It's not an exact science but it's still the size that what you bring to the table determines how much power you have to demand a favorable deal.

The size of what you have to offer and the direction in which you're heading economically and politically.

As regards foreign investment, nobody is going to want to invest in the EU if it's patently going down the pan. If things were clearly on the up, it would be different but the EU is far from on the up, nobody seriously denies there are huge problems around the corner for it whether we stay or leave. To the rest of the world that represents just as much an uncertainty as what might happen to the UK if we exited. We're frequently told that foreign firms won't want to invest in the UK but I wonder how much foreign investment is flowing into Greece, Spain, Italy, France, Portugal, Cyprus, Poland etc. etc. right now.

---------- Post added at 18:10 ---------- Previous post was at 18:04 ----------

Originally Posted by RichardCoulter

Not surprising that many politicians from all the main parties want us to stay in the EU; it's a nice little gravy train for when their political careers are over in the UK.

Yes, and you can rest assured that none of them will be suffering the austerity and social pressures the rest of us will be due to their flawed ideology.

[heero_yuy]

It's a sad day when politicians put their comfy future billet ahead of the good of their country. Pretty close to treason in my books.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by heero_yuy

It's a sad day when politicians put their comfy future billet ahead of the good of their country. Pretty close to treason in my books.

Well I think the rich and powerful of the world all have the same interests and long term agenda at heart, it's just a question of scale. With the world's population rising fast, the only way they'll be able to secure their lifestyles is for the real power and wealth to be increasingly shared between a small elite at the expense of the rest. At the very top, few of them are going to freely relinquish their private estates, jets, yachts, luxury homes etc. in order that the likes of us have a slightly better life.

The subject of another thread, however...

I think when you start accusing people who have a differing political opinion to you as committing treason then you're going down a damaging and unhealthy route. It's the same logic that hard-left protestors use when they're accusing Tories of being murderers and ****. You become so convinced you're right that the only alternative reasoning you can think of for someone thinking different is to ascribe some sort of sinister intent.

I mean if you're wrong about the consequences of Brexit and people do suffer in an economic recession then will Leave have committed Treason? Of course not. The leaders of the Leave campaign are also largely insulated have any impact that might be to come.

All this thinking does is distort perspective and fester hate.