[Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

Originally Posted by Chris

More than two thirds of our GDP is not exported. The point about trade deals is you adhere to the rules of that deal whenever you trade with the other party. Canada's domestic businesses that do not export to the EU are not bound by any of the rules you outlined above. Sadly, British firms that deal only domestically must still adhere to whatever EU rules are in force.

Well not exactly. That would only be for specific products meeting various standards but issues such as the Copyright changes will be applied as law. Equally many of the Trans-Pacific agreement are applied across the board. These are law changes designed to 'help' various businesses/trades in-between the countries. One example cited on that Wiki article is that any signatory nation to the TPP will have to make the breaking of DRM a criminal offense. You can't isolate them off that easily.

And will you please, please stop producing Norway as evidence. Norway's treaty with the EU was designed to smooth the path to full membership. No serious attempt was made to recognise Norway's status as a non-EU country because those brokering the deal fully expected to take Norway in to the EU in due course. It was a democratic referendum that put paid to that, but sadly due to the high-handedness of their politicians, the Norwegian people are stuck with a deal that is far from brilliant for them. Though it should be noted that for all that, Norwegians still prefer their current status to EU membership.

Norway is used because, until all the flaws of their arrangement where pointed out, it was used as an example by some of those advocating for Out. But fine I'll stop using it. The other trade deals, the European Convention and those other organisations still show that sovereignty as Out promises is disingenuous and ignores the reality of how the world works now.

The EU is a further ceding of sovereignty in return for benefits you may or may not think are worth it. Voting to leave or remain is not a black and white choice of being sovereign or not either, just the scale of it.

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by Chris

More than two thirds of our GDP is not exported. The point about trade deals is you adhere to the rules of that deal whenever you trade with the other party. Canada's domestic businesses that do not export to the EU are not bound by any of the rules you outlined above. Sadly, British firms that deal only domestically must still adhere to whatever EU rules are in force.

And will you please, please stop producing Norway as evidence. Norway's treaty with the EU was designed to smooth the path to full membership. No serious attempt was made to recognise Norway's status as a non-EU country because those brokering the deal fully expected to take Norway in to the EU in due course. It was a democratic referendum that put paid to that, but sadly due to the high-handedness of their politicians, the Norwegian people are stuck with a deal that is far from brilliant for them. Though it should be noted that for all that, Norwegians still prefer their current status to EU membership.

The same was said of the Swiss when they failed to join based on less than 1% of the referendum vote and they got a significantly better deal than norway as a prelude for membership

Originally Posted by Damien

Norway is used because, until all the flaws of their arrangement where pointed out, it was used as an example by some of those advocating for Out. But fine I'll stop using it. The other trade deals, the European Convention and those other organisations still show that sovereignty as Out promises is disingenuous and ignores the reality of how the world works now.

The EU is a further ceding of sovereignty in return for benefits you may or may not think are worth it. Voting to leave or remain is not a black and white choice of being sovereign or not either, just the scale of it.

I don't believe anyone of note has ever held up Norway as a template for the UK's arrangement with the EU.

What many people have done is point out that countries like Norway and Switzerland have come to their own arrangements, and that a Norway-like arrangement could be brokered for the UK.

I appreciate it's a subtle difference, but there it is.

---------- Post added at 17:33 ---------- Previous post was at 17:32 ----------

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

The same was said of the Swiss when they failed to join based on less than 1% of the referendum vote and they got a significantly better deal than norway as a prelude for membership

Well that's exactly it - there is no one-size-fits-all arrangement for non-EU members of the EEA. It depends on the unique circumstances in each case.

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by Chris

I don't believe anyone of note has ever held up Norway as a template for the UK's arrangement with the EU.

What many people have done is point out that countries like Norway and Switzerland have come to their own arrangements, and that a Norway-like arrangement could be brokered for the UK.

I appreciate it's a subtle difference, but there it is.

---------- Post added at 17:33 ---------- Previous post was at 17:32 ----------



Well that's exactly it - there is no one-size-fits-all arrangement for non-EU members of the EEA. It depends on the unique circumstances in each case.

The thing that concerns me is both these deals were a prelude to join not leave, leaving will be a nightmare, they won't make the process easy, if nothing else to put others of doing the same and it'll take years to get any sort of deal achieved let alone a good one.

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

The thing that concerns me is both these deals were a prelude to join not leave, leaving will be a nightmare, they won't make the process easy, if nothing else to put others of doing the same and it'll take years to get any sort of deal achieved let alone a good one.

German cars, French wine and cheese will ensure a deal is quickly made if we exit the EU.

Those two are the leaders of the EU and cannot afford not to trade with us. Trade with them alone is worth billions to their economies.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by pip08456

German cars, French wine and cheese will ensure a deal is quickly made if we exit the EU.

Those two are the leaders of the EU and cannot afford not to trade with us. Trade with them alone is worth billions to their economies.

Yup and given the fact that their economies are suffering, the last thing they'll want to do is make that worse by getting into some tit for tat spat with the UK.

---------- Post added at 10:34 ---------- Previous post was at 10:07 ----------

Interesting to hear that world leaders are predicting a shock to the global economy now. I'm sure it will be a bit of a shock but they can all help to mitigate any such problems by getting off their bums and doing something about it by, for example, facilitating new trade deals to take the place of those which went before.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politic...endum-35677385

Finance ministers from the world's leading economies are warning of a "shock" to the global economy if the UK leaves the EU.

The ministers give their assessment in a statement released at the end of a two-day meeting of G20 nations in China.

UK Chancellor George Osborne, who is at the event, told the BBC the issue was "deadly serious".

It seems to me that the UK is being 'blackmailed' by people who'd rather we remain subjugated and tethered by EU membership. If they're really interested in the health of the global economy, then they'd do well to take advantage of the UK's exit rather than turning it into a self fulfilling prophecy of doom for reasons best known to themselves. If they're not prepared to do that then what they're wanting effectively is to have their cake and eat it by trying to prevent the UK determining its future.

Originally Posted by Osem

It seems to me that the UK is being 'blackmailed' by people who'd rather we remain subjugated and tethered by EU membership. If they're really interested in the health of the global economy, then they'd do well to take advantage of the UK's exit rather than turning it into a self fulfilling prophecy of doom for reasons best known to themselves. If they're not prepared to do that then what they're wanting effectively is to have their cake and eat it by trying to prevent the UK determining its future.

Markets don't like uncertainty. They will be preparing for exit I imagine, various banks so far have issued guidance to their shareholders of what their plans are regarding the Exit. Those reports by the way do not talk positively of it.

The other side of this is maybe they're not blackmailing us 'for reasons best known to themselves' and instead genuinely think that exit from the EU would not be in their best interests. Remember that as far as politicians and businesses are concerned they simply do not want another thing to contend with.

The same thing happened with the Scottish Referendum. Any company or organisation that said it would not be good for Scotland were accused of blackmail and improperly tying to prevent Scotland from being Independent.

There is some truth to that. It's not really great when companies get involved with politics and in both cases they've been encouraged to go public with their concerns by Westminster. Hell, the Tories got companies to sign a letter warning about Labour winning the election - there wasn't much concern about that then. The more important point is that there is more to this vote than economic concerns.

At the same time though it's not really blackmail to warn of consequences. In the end it turns out that some of the warnings from the Better Together campaign, such as the unrealiablity of oil prices, turned out to be more than just scaremongering.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Damien

Markets don't like uncertainty. They will be preparing for exit I imagine, various banks so far have issued guidance to their shareholders of what their plans are regarding the Exit. Those reports by the way do not talk positively of it.

The other side of this is maybe they're not blackmailing us 'for reasons best known to themselves' and instead genuinely think that exit from the EU would not be in their best interests.

The same thing happened with the Scottish Referendum. Any company or organisation that said it would not be good for Scotland were accused of blackmail and improperly tying to prevent Scotland from being Independence.

There is some truth to that. It's not really great when companies get involved with politics and in both cases they've been encouraged to go public with their concerns by Westminster. Hell, the Tories got companies to sign a letter warning about Labour winning the election - there wasn't much concern about that then. The more important point is that there is more to this vote than economic concerns.

At the same time though it's not really blackmail to warn of consequences. In the end it turns out that some of the warnings from the Better Together campaign, such as the unrealiablity of oil prices, turned out to be more than just scaremongering.

Which is why I wrote 'blackmailed'.

Originally Posted by Osem

Which is why I wrote 'blackmailed'.

Does that mean you were "lying"?

[techguyone]

Is it me or is the interval between depressions or credit crunches or shocks to the economy getting shorter, given our ongoing cuts to everything, we're not out of the last one yet, let alone ready for another. Osbourne is going to cop for it if his great economic strategy hasn't worked, lets not forget we've had cuts for getting on ten years now. I'm not sure the public will tolerate never ending cuts forever.

[Mr K]

A factor could be in this referendum that Brexit voters are more motivated to vote than the Remains. I could certainly believe this of our apathetic nation. This is what the Govt. need to be most concerned about.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a6898766.html

However all it would mean is another vote and people might be less apathetic a second time when they realise what's at stake.

[heero_yuy]

Seems to me that the demographic most likely to actually turn out and vote are also the most Eurosceptic. So far all my peers are solidly for leaving.

The pollsters may have got it wrong again saying it's neck and neck.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Does that mean you were "lying"?

No it means I couldn't think of a better word to describe the sort of pressure being applied and the apparent unwillingness of said global leaders to concede there are alternatives to the Brexit = Doom scenario.

The scare tactics are on both sides and it does nobody's argument any good. What we should be entitled to is clear, unbiased statistics where that's possible and then it's down to a combination of experience, intuition and gut feeling to decide on whether we feel the EU is capable of the reform that many people believe is required but still can't seem to drive through due to the various competing national interests.

Brexit doesn't have to result in chaos but there's no doubt that could be the result if the powers that be decide to let that happen. They're in charge, they can negotiate new deals if they want to and if we're really saying that's impossible, I reckon that's an admission that the EU is fundamentally flawed.

Over coming months events in Europe are going to play a big part in the outcome. If there's more chaos, bickering and backstabbing in Europe that will serve the out campaign well. If things calm down and take a turn for the better that has to favour those who feel getting out is either totally the wrong thing or that proportion who'd like to get out but feel doing so is simply too big a risk to take.

---------- Post added at 11:37 ---------- Previous post was at 11:27 ----------

Originally Posted by techguyone

Is it me or is the interval between depressions or credit crunches or shocks to the economy getting shorter, given our ongoing cuts to everything, we're not out of the last one yet, let alone ready for another. Osbourne is going to cop for it if his great economic strategy hasn't worked, lets not forget we've had cuts for getting on ten years now. I'm not sure the public will tolerate never ending cuts forever.

Whatever he's done right or wrong, Osborne isn't to blame for what's going on in China which is one of the biggest reasons for the current problems we're facing.

Like it or not, there are far more people wanting their share of the spoils of economic success and the cake is only so big. My feeling is that the public are going to get cuts whether they like it or not and regardless of who's in power. The world has changed massively in the last decade or two and what we're now in are very dangerous waters for which no politician has the charts.

[ianch99]

Here's an interesting conundrum: if you voted Tory at the last election, I presume you voted for and support George Osbourne's economic competence and and you agree that he knows what he is doing when it comes to the country's finances. Let's face it, if you don't agree that he knows what he is doing then ... let's not go there ..

So, we agree that George is knowledgeable and competent in running the economy and is trusted to make decisions on the near future economic outlook.

Ok, so why would you not trust him when he says here:

he will do "everything he can" to stop the UK from leaving the EU, saying it is the wrong time to take such an "enormous economic gamble".

You sort of can't have it both ways: either he is trusted to run the country's economy and you then have to trust him when he says what he says or he isn't trusted on economic matters then in which case why is he Chancellor? ..

[Anonymouse]

I'd like to know when Cameron's going to remember that it is not his place to decide if the UK stays in - that's our call, or it damn well should be!