VOD : The future for linear TV channels

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Chris

The evidence OB has found does not contradict what I posted above, and it does not support the argument he has made throughout this thread, that VOD means linear TV will be dead in 10 years.

It would be a mistake to project the current downward trend forwards to a point where it reaches zero. The reasons for the current decline do not support such an assumption. There are, however, plenty of reasons for arguing that a new equilibrium will be reached between various methods of content delivery. I have outlined some of those above.

I could add to that, that companies that own both platform and channel, such as Sky, have a massive incentive to continue to provide their premium content via the linear platforms they own.

Long before the audience for linear TV reaches zero it will be uneconomic to provide them.

This isn't about our individual preferences, Chris, it's about whether sufficient people will still want to watch linear TV with all the alternatives that are being made available.

The point I keep coming back to is that although there is plenty of money to be made from advertising at the moment, the point will come, inevitably, where the audience share becomes so low that the revenue from advertising will be insufficient to support our linear channels.

The key, presumably is to somehow link this advertising with OD content. However, why go for OD if it's riddled with adverts when you can stream your programmes through the likes of Netflix and Amazon without interruptions?

It's primarily the younger generation that will drive this. Those who are longer in the tooth and set in their ways will be dragged along kicking and screaming, no doubt!

Nope. Not inevitable at all.

We still have cinema, we still have radio. In 20 years there will still be a TV schedule.

[telegramsam]

Originally Posted by Chris

Nope. Not inevitable at all.

We still have cinema, we still have radio. In 20 years there will still be a TV schedule.

I totally agree with you on this. CD`S were supposed to kill off vinyl but they survived and indeed seem to be getting more and more popular. Linear tv will stay around for many many years to come,I`m absolutely sure of that.

[passingbat]

Originally Posted by telegramsam

I totally agree with you on this. CD`S were supposed to kill off vinyl but they survived and indeed seem to be getting more and more popular. Linear tv will stay around for many many years to come,I`m absolutely sure of that.

Yeah, some people just can't seem to wean themselves off the clicks and pops that you get with vinyl, And pay more for the privilege!

[denphone]

Originally Posted by passingbat

Yeah, some people just can't seem to wean themselves off the clicks and pops that you get with vinyl, And pay more for the privilege!

That's entirely their prerogative just like others who download their music or people who buy CD's.

[Kabaal]

There probably will always be a place for linear channels but there's no doubt that on demand is on the rise and affecting viewership of normal channels. The ratio is only going to increase in the favour of Netflix-like methods as the years go by and as new platforms appear or more established ones evolve.

It's probably going to take another decade or two to see just how much but even a blind man could see what direction media consumption is headed.

[eljay]

On demand etc. viewing is no doubt increasing but has a long way to catch up with linear TV and the same could be said for pay tv.

A lot of people will never want to wade through a series of menus. my wife is one, they just want to turn the telly on and go through one menu and find something to watch.

Lets face it recently all the press were going on about Game of Thrones having its largest ever viewing figures. However, when you read on it shows nearly 5 times as many were watching BBC 1 and ITV alone.

I like the option of on demand but it still has a long way to catch up.

[muppetman11]

Originally Posted by eljay

On demand etc. viewing is no doubt increasing but has a long way to catch up with linear TV and the same could be said for pay tv.

A lot of people will never want to wade through a series of menus. my wife is one, they just want to turn the telly on and go through one menu and find something to watch.

Lets face it recently all the press were going on about Game of Thrones having its largest ever viewing figures. However, when you read on it shows nearly 5 times as many were watching BBC 1 and ITV alone.

I like the option of on demand but it still has a long way to catch up.

Agreed , some people don't realise there is more than one page of channels on the EPG.

[Mad Max]

Originally Posted by Chris

Nope. Not inevitable at all.

We still have cinema, we still have radio. In 20 years there will still be a TV schedule.

You keep saying that we still have cinema, cinema is a totally different experience to TV, and I agree that cinema, maybe not in it's present form, but imo there will always be a demand for cinema and the bigger screen. There is no doubt that linear TV is on the slide, what it will be like in 20 years time is anyone's guess.

[Kabaal]

Originally Posted by eljay

A lot of people will never want to wade through a series of menus. my wife is one, they just want to turn the telly on and go through one menu and find something to watch.

That's something both piracy and tivo have in common. Set your favourite shows to automatically download/record then watch at your leisure from an easy to read list. Even with it's very few 'next day after US channels episodes from the likes of AMC' shows that netflix has, still hasn't mastered. their interface is annoying.

Originally Posted by Mad Max

You keep saying that we still have cinema, cinema is a totally different experience to TV, and I agree that cinema, maybe not in it's present form, but imo there will always be a demand for cinema and the bigger screen. There is no doubt that linear TV is on the slide, what it will be like in 20 years time is anyone's guess.

You really don't get it ...

Of course cinema is a different experience. That is *why* it has survived.

The ability to switch on a TV and quickly settle down to watch something after a day at work, with the absolute bare minimum of effort, is a different experience to deliberately choosing from a menu of box sets, or setting up preferences for download or whatever, and is one of the key reasons why linear TV will also survive.

[passingbat]

Originally Posted by Kabaal

Even with it's very few 'next day after US channels episodes from the likes of AMC' shows that netflix has, still hasn't mastered. their interface is annoying.

I don't get what the problem is with Netflix. On entering you have a row of your recently watched shows, and selecting one takes you to where you left off. There is also a row of 'My List' shows, showing shows you are interested in.

Amazon is similar with 'Recently watched' and 'Your Watchlist'. Now TV is a bit clunkier, but offers a limited 'Recently Watched'. Even Hulu alerts you when there is a new episode of a show you watch. What could be simpler than the above?

[Mad Max]

Originally Posted by Chris

You really don't get it ...

Of course cinema is a different experience. That is *why* it has survived.

The ability to switch on a TV and quickly settle down to watch something after a day at work, with the absolute bare minimum of effort, is a different experience to deliberately choosing from a menu of box sets, or setting up preferences for download or whatever, and is one of the key reasons why linear TV will also survive.

No, I do get it, as for the part in bold, it only takes seconds to find something that you've either recorded or can choose from a menu, so imo your argument about settling down quickly after a hard days work, and viewing a linear channel quickly, holds no water at all.

[Kabaal]

Originally Posted by passingbat

I don't get what the problem is with Netflix. On entering you have a row of your recently watched shows, and selecting one takes you to where you left off. There is also a row of 'My List' shows, showing shows you are interested in.

Amazon is similar with 'Recently watched' and 'Your Watchlist'. Now TV is a bit clunkier, but offers a limited 'Recently Watched'. Even Hulu alerts you when there is a new episode of a show you watch. What could be simpler than the above?

Don't get me wrong i use Netflix often, sometimes daily. However i have to jump on the PC to browse for things as the app interface is awful for finding things unless you know exactly what you're looking for via the search.

I look for things on the PC then add them to 'My List' for watching on other devices, tivo for example. My auto recordings on tivo and torrents is just click a button on the remote to go to the recent shows.

[spiderplant]

Originally Posted by Mad Max

No, I do get it, as for the part in bold, it only takes seconds to find something that you've either recorded or can choose from a menu, so imo your argument about settling down quickly after a hard days work, and viewing a linear channel quickly holds no water at all.

You are correct that it only takes seconds. But most people don't do it regardless.