Labour face electoral wipeout in Scotland

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...-poll-predicts

Labour’s general election campaign chairman, Douglas Alexander, and the Liberal Democrats’ economics spokesman, Danny Alexander, are two of the most high-profile projected casualties in Scotland at the general election, according to polling research by Lord Ashcroft that was prematurely released on Tuesday night.

The long-awaited polling in 16 constituencies in Scotland suggests a 21% swing from Labour to the Scottish National party (SNP). If the results were replicated across Scotland on 7 May, Labour would lose 35 of its 41 seats, making the prospect of an overall Labour majority at Westminster much more unlikely, and close to impossible.

The SNP are set to become the third largest party in the commons. The question will likely be what type of coalition occurs? It seems we're set for a Labour-SNP or Labour-SNP-Lib Dem one.

[heero_yuy]

Originally Posted by Damien

The SNP are set to become the third largest party in the commons. The question will likely be what type of coalition occurs? It seems we're set for a Labour-SNP or Labour-SNP-Lib Dem one.

Or even:

The Conservatives tweeted a picture with a mock-up of Ed Miliband with his arm around SNP politician Alex Salmond and Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams.

It captioned the picture "Your worst nightmare just got even worse" and encouraged people to retweet it.

linky

Sinn Fien won't take their seats I am guessing....

[Osem]

On the other hand, the prospect of even dodgier allegiances involving the likes of the SNP might just focus the minds of disaffected Tory voters throughout England sufficiently to make them return to the fold. IMHO, a lot will depend on the economy and Farage's political fortunes.

[heero_yuy]

Originally Posted by Damien

Sinn Fien won't take their seats I am guessing....

It depends how much Milibrain wants to be in power. I'm guessing he'd pay almost any price to get his grubby mits on a premiership.

The Tories best chance seems to be a SNP rout in Scotland and not enough Labour seats in England so they can form a coalition with the Liberal Democrats. UKIP are currently projected to win a handful a handful of seats so not sure they'll be in a position to deal.

Inept analysis from the Grauniad.

The reason Ashcroft focused on those 16 seats was because 14 of them are in areas which voted Yes, or No by only a narrow margin, in the referendum. The other ones are Gordon, where The Fat One is planning to stand, and Danny Alexnder's seat, Inverness.

The Grauniad's extrapolation is based on a uniform nationwide swing of the same proportion suggested in these known Nat hotspots. That isn't going to happen. It never does.

---------- Post added at 14:50 ---------- Previous post was at 14:48 ----------

Incidentally, Operation Keep The Nat Out is going to compel me to vote Labour for the first time in my life this May.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Chris

Inept analysis from the Grauniad.

The reason Ashcroft focused on those 16 seats was because 14 of them are in areas which voted Yes, or No by only a narrow margin, in the referendum. The other ones are Gordon, where The Fat One is planning to stand, and Danny Alexnder's seat, Inverness.

The Grauniad's extrapolation is based on a uniform nationwide swing of the same proportion suggested in these known Nat hotspots. That isn't going to happen. It never does.

---------- Post added at 14:50 ---------- Previous post was at 14:48 ----------

Incidentally, Operation Keep The Nat Out is going to compel me to vote Labour for the first time in my life this May.

I don't envy you that prospect but maybe, just once, Labour will prove to have been of some value to you...

Originally Posted by Chris

Inept analysis from the Grauniad.

The reason Ashcroft focused on those 16 seats was because 14 of them are in areas which voted Yes, or No by only a narrow margin, in the referendum. The other ones are Gordon, where The Fat One is planning to stand, and Danny Alexnder's seat, Inverness.

The Grauniad's extrapolation is based on a uniform nationwide swing of the same proportion suggested in these known Nat hotspots. That isn't going to happen. It never does.

Ashcroft will be releasing more seats soon. However these localised results also reflect the Scotland-wide polls that have been showing a dramatic nationwide swing to the SNP.

Even if this is a bit favourable to the Nats the story will hopefully wake people up into what is happening.

Originally Posted by Damien

Ashcroft will be releasing more seats soon. However these localised results also reflect the Scotland-wide polls that have been showing a dramatic nationwide swing to the SNP.

Even if this is a bit favourable to the Nats the story will hopefully wake people up into what is happening.

Nationwide %ages really aren't helpful in this context. Only a few weeks ago, they were suggesting Labour might lose all bar about 2 of its seats in Scotland. Now, it is claimed they will hold on to around 20. Too much has changed, too quickly, and the polling companies simply don't know how to weight for it.