[update] UK economy grows in Q1 2011

[chris9991]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12272717

Have to say it doesn't suprise me that it happened (forecast were between +0.2% and +0.7%)

Wouldn't like to blame it all on the weather though

And if Q1 contracts then we'll be in a double dip recession

[Osem]

Given the huge importance of the pre-Christmas quarter to the economy and the extent of the bad weather, I reckon the snow etc. played a very big role in the poor figures (which IIRC were particularly bad in the service sector). A truer test will be the following set of numbers and if they're equally bad then things will be indeed looking pretty gloomy.

[chris9991]

With the rise in VAT/Fuel Duty, I wouldn't be too optimistic for Q1. Though I do take your point of not looking at one set of figures - have to see what adjustments are made

[Digital Fanatic]

Originally Posted by chris9991

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12272717

Have to say it doesn't suprise me that it happened (forecast were between +0.2% and +0.7%)

Wouldn't like to blame it all on the weather though

And if Q1 contracts then we'll be in a double dip recession

It's definatley not all to do with the weather! Things are going to get worse once the full hit of the VAT increase hits us.

This goverment has got it wrong.

[Osem]

Well I've just been listening to Ed Balls (on LBC News) trivialising the exceptionally bad weather which swept the UK at the end of last year as akin to 'leaves on the line'. It's odd how, at the time, I seem to recall the his party was slamming HMG's pathetic response to the weather which had brought large parts of the UK to a virtual standstill. Not exactly 'leaves on the line' then was it??

Yes, I doubt he'd be saying quite the same thing if were in power but then this is this the sort of ridiculous spin we all got used to during the Bliar/Brown years and it's coming from a guy who played a key role in what went wrong in the first place.

Nice to know you've absolved yourself and your party from any responsibiltiy for the mess we're in Mr Balls....

[Digital Fanatic]

Originally Posted by Osem

Well I've just been listening to Ed Balls trivialising the exceptionally bad weather which swept the UK at the end of last year as akin to 'leaves on the track'. It's odd how, at the time, I seem to recall the his party was slamming HMG's pathetic response to the weather which had brought large parts of the UK to a virtual standstill. Not exactly 'leaves on the track' then was it??

Yes, I doubt he'd be saying quite the same thing if were in power but then this is this the sort of ridiculous spin we all got used to during the Bliar/Brown years and it's coming from a guy who played a key role in what went wrong in the first place.

Nice to know you've absolved yourself and your party from any responsibiltiy for the mess we're in Mr Balls....

They're all the same, don't fool yourself mate

Will be intersting to see what happens in the next Q1 results.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Digital Fanatic

They're all the same, don't fool yourself mate

Will be intersting to see what happens in the next Q1 results.

Some are more 'the same' than others IMHO....

There's little doubt that, barring more exceptional circumstances, the next figures should show a truer picture.

[Digital Fanatic]

Originally Posted by Osem

Some are more 'the same' than others IMHO....

There's little doubt that, barring more exceptional circumstances, the next figures should show a truer picture.

Yes, totally agree.

[Matty_]

I really can`t see the economy going anywhere for quite some time. As these figures show (granted it`s just one quarter) the prospect of a prolonged recovery is very far from guaranteed.
Several friends of mine have recently been made redundant (or have been told the factory is shutting in 6 months). Others say that they have contracts for now but when the`re done unless something comes in their goosed.
One of the factory`s employed ~3 to 5 hundred people and apparently another similar size place has just been closed. Couple that with the services that relied on these places and that`s a whole heap of people out of work.
Lot`s of people are sitting on their hands because they don`t know what`s around the corner, the sale of companies to foreign investors (the American 5 year plan) is not helping as obviously they shut down a UK plant and move it somewhere cheaper when times get rocky.

The economy is like the weather at the moment, cold, wet and not very nice!

[Ignitionnet]

These figures are at first glance bizarre and make little sense. The main danger is them being used as political capital to oppose austerity, which is quite wrong.

These figures are nothing to do with austerity measures at all, government spending in December was the highest on record, they are to do with the government being so preoccupied with fairness, a nod to the Liberal Democrats, that they are neglecting the more traditional 'capitalist' Tory policies that drive private sector growth.

This is what happens when you have a government that's neither one nor the other and has no identity or genuine direction but tries to please everyone. Regrettably rather difficult when Labour have hooked big swathes of the population on unsustainable levels of public spending and the other parts of the population who are expected to pay for this spending are getting disgruntled.

We need tax cuts, not tax rises. If this means deeper public sector cuts so be it because without the growth the tax cuts promote there won't be anyone to pay for the public sector.

It's that or we jack taxes up to about 45% of the economy, minimise the cuts and watch the same people who campaigned against the cuts whinge and moan about their tax bills as they'll be having to pay considerably more to compensate both for slower economic growth and the loss of revenue due to the Laffer curve - mobile peeps like me will take ourselves elsewhere and pay no tax to the UK at all, while others look for ways to minimise their tax bills as they become more viable and make more sense.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...rowth-strategy
http://www.channelregister.co.uk/201...business_fail/
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukp...1295890396453A
http://www.cityam.com/news-and-analy...isten-business

[Flyboy]

Originally Posted by chris9991

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12272717

Have to say it doesn't suprise me that it happened (forecast were between +0.2% and +0.7%)

Wouldn't like to blame it all on the weather though

And if Q1 contracts then we'll be in a double dip recession

Not shocked here. This was predicted last year but ignored by the ConDems. Their ideological approach to economic planning is not going to do this nation any favours at all.

---------- Post added at 14:13 ---------- Previous post was at 14:11 ----------

Originally Posted by Osem

Well I've just been listening to Ed Balls (on LBC News) trivialising the exceptionally bad weather which swept the UK at the end of last year as akin to 'leaves on the line'. It's odd how, at the time, I seem to recall the his party was slamming HMG's pathetic response to the weather which had brought large parts of the UK to a virtual standstill. Not exactly 'leaves on the line' then was it??

Yes, I doubt he'd be saying quite the same thing if were in power but then this is this the sort of ridiculous spin we all got used to during the Bliar/Brown years and it's coming from a guy who played a key role in what went wrong in the first place.

Nice to know you've absolved yourself and your party from any responsibiltiy for the mess we're in Mr Balls....

In December of 2009 and January 2010 we had some of the worst snowfall on record at the time, yet the economy grew by 0.4% for two quarters in a row.

---------- Post added at 14:16 ---------- Previous post was at 14:13 ----------

Originally Posted by Osem

Given the huge importance of the pre-Christmas quarter to the economy and the extent of the bad weather, I reckon the snow etc. played a very big role in the poor figures (which IIRC were particularly bad in the service sector). A truer test will be the following set of numbers and if they're equally bad then things will be indeed looking pretty gloomy.

Ths is truly the scary bit:

Normally we're cautious about reading too much into what is only a first estimate of growth figures. They are due for revision. However, the ONS says today's numbers focus on the output side of the economy (services, construction and manufacturing) and don't include consumer spending, which is the area that would be most affected by the weather. This means that the second estimate, due in a month, could come in even worse.

So the figures published today, do not even include retail output.

---------- Post added at 14:17 ---------- Previous post was at 14:16 ----------

Originally Posted by Osem

Some are more 'the same' than others IMHO....

There's little doubt that, barring more exceptional circumstances, the next figures should show a truer picture.

The current figures haven't even shown the last bits of "exceptional circumstances," let alone any possible future ones.

[Ignitionnet]

The above party political broadcast was brought to you by the Labour party, via Flyboy.

So when you're done with that Flyboy how about we discuss all the other economic metrics which make it seem pretty likely that this figure will be revised for the better, or that economies doing a zig-zag is very common when coming out of recession?

You know little things like graduate vacancies going up, business confidence improving, manufacturing improving, etc, etc.

I do agree with you that the ConDems have it wrong though, they are listening too much to the Dems and not following the Cons enough and this was most certainly not predicted beyond by the usual suspects in the Labour party who think the public sector is the economy, not really relevant to this anyway as noted as public spending in the quarter in question was enormous.

[Flyboy]

Oh dear, when the economy was improving, slowly at first, all we could hear from the right, was that it was nothing more than a joke and that the if the growth didn't continue it would prove the economy had been mishandled. But when we are now on the brink of another recession, it is, "don't look, nothing to see here." Did you not understand the point, "the ONS says today's numbers focus on the output side of the economy (services, construction and manufacturing) and don't include consumer spending, which is the area that would be most affected by the weather. This means that the second estimate, due in a month, could come in even worse?"

[Ignitionnet]

To think, you have in the past complained when other people politicised threads.

There is nothing to indicate that this is a result of coalition policy. The Labour party's own leader said that the cuts had not yet started as of December 2010. There is nothing interesting to see here beyond political opportunism which you appear determined to bring onto this forum as well.

Unsure what you're talking about referring to 'the right'. Political opportunism is political opportunism, end of discussion. That you're trying to get one over on 'the right' by engaging in the exact same behaviour is entirely your prerogative.

[Saaf_laandon_mo]

I was out in Croydon on Sunday afternoon shopping. The area looked like a ghost town in comparison to its usual busy self. With everyone having considerably less disposable income than they had this time last year, you really can't blame the weather for less consumer spending.