Coronavirus

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Oh, look - here’s the Telegraph, the Daily Mail, and the Daily Express smearing the Government...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...e-covered.html

https://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...s-latest-no-10

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...er-government/

Bunch of lefties...

You're just as bad.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

You're just as bad.

Bit of a wild thought, I know. But amuse me. Have you thought that with the press of all hues () reporting the issue, it may just possibly be you who is being less than objective?

[Pierre]

Lots to unpack here!

Originally Posted by jfman

Cases steadily rising

They’re not “Steadily rising”,....they’re going through the roof from around 450 per day in July to around 16,000 per day now. A huge increase, totally eclipsing the initial round.

hospital cases steadily rising

This is were it gets more interesting...are we talking hospital admissions? Because this were somebody has gone to hospital for any reason, but tested positive, tests positive whilst in hospital for other reasons etc.

Even so, I agree there is an increase, but it in no way correlates to the infection metric.
Not even close to April. The curve is a magnitude flatter.

deaths steadily rising. The trajectory is inevitable.

Not really, they have risen, and gone back down again, again the death curve is even flatter and the correlation between the infection rate and the death rates, in any other setting you would struggle to assign a high level of risk to it.

It currently has a mortality rate of 0.5%, which is obviously higher than the true figure as the majority of people either don’t get tested or don’t even know they have/had it.

But at 0.5% it’s as deadly as none of the attached.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...and-month.html

[Mad Max]

Originally Posted by jfman

To believe what we are seeing elsewhere won’t happen here is naive in the extreme unless we are doing something fundamentally different.

That means our test, trace, isolate has to be better, our healthcare system has to have more capacity and better treatments or we have greater restrictions that are being strictly adhered to.

I’m not seeing any evidence of these things. Cases steadily rising, hospital cases steadily rising, deaths steadily rising. The trajectory is inevitable.

Will that be the hundreds of thousands of deaths that you predicted?

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

I've no problem in tackling apparent contradictions as I did by posting the Tony Blair story on Sunday, the Nick Hancock story today and by condemning Margaret Ferrier.

You subscribe to the view that if they're Conservative they're exempt from such criticism. Sorry, I will continue to call such politicians out, regardless of their political party.

No I don’t. Prove it. I am no Boris fan and have said so many times.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Mad Max

Will that be the hundreds of thousands of deaths that you predicted?

I think you will find that is my prediction without any mitigation at all. I’m sure you’ll agree - there’s very much a lot mitigation going on. And more to come.

[Mad Max]

Originally Posted by jfman

I think you will find that is my prediction without any mitigation at all. I’m sure you’ll agree - there’s very much a lot mitigation going on. And more to come.

Well, here's hoping, jfman.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

No I don’t. Prove it. I am no Boris fan and have said so many times.

#363 suggested otherwise.
But I'm happy to take you at your word.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Lots to unpack here!

They’re not “Steadily rising”,....they’re going through the roof from around 450 per day in July to around 16,000 per day now. A huge increase, totally eclipsing the initial round.

Apples and oranges of course, as we weren’t testing in the initial round.

This is were it gets more interesting...are we talking hospital admissions? Because this were somebody has gone to hospital for any reason, but tested positive, tests positive whilst in hospital for other reasons etc.

Probably all of them - I fail to see the relevance. The NHS has finite capacity and resource.

Even so, I agree there is an increase, but it in no way correlates to the infection metric.
Not even close to April. The curve is a magnitude flatter.

Not really, they have risen, and gone back down again, again the death curve is even flatter and the correlation between the infection rate and the death rates, in any other setting you would struggle to assign a high level of risk to it.

It currently has a mortality rate of 0.5%, which is obviously higher than the true figure as the majority of people either don’t get tested or don’t even know they have/had it.

But at 0.5% it’s as deadly as none of the attached.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...and-month.html

I’m not sure what your point is. 0.5% of reaching herd immunity is an acceptable death toll but 1% isn’t?

Those conditions also aren’t all contagious

---------- Post added 20-10-2020 at 00:00 ---------- Previous post was 19-10-2020 at 23:54 ----------

Originally Posted by Mad Max

Well, here's hoping, jfman.

We are of course also getting better at treatments which is a factor in improving the death rate significantly. Another important outcome of the delay towards a vaccine strategy.

Although in part that depends on staying inside the resource capacity of the NHS.

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

You're just as bad.

I’m just as bad as the Torygraph, Daily Fail, and the Daily Excess?

OK, then...

[heero_yuy]

Quote from The Sun:

The Government’s chief scientific adviser has warned a Covid vaccine may never eradicate the virus completely.

Sir Patrick Vallance said that only one disease - smallpox - had ever been completely eradicated by a vaccine as he moved to try and manage expectations over the nationwide roll-out of a Covid jab.

Giving evidence to the joint Commons and Lords National Security Strategy Committee, he said a vaccine may be ready for widespread community use by the spring and that doses may be available to some people before that.

But Sir Vallance said he thought it was "unlikely" that a jab would be widely available before then.

He said in the future, treating Covid-19 may become more like seasonal flu.

Sir Patrick told the committee: "I think it is unlikely that we will end up with a truly sterilising vaccine that completely stops infection.

"It is likely that this disease will circulate and be endemic.

We're just going to have to live with it like seasonal flu and stop the damaging lockdowns that are and will kill more as collateral damage (Untreated cancer, heart disease, mental health etc) in the coming years than are dying from COVID 19.

But it’s not like seasonal flu - it kills more, and it could have longer lasting ongoing health issues.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

#363 suggested otherwise.
But I'm happy to take you at your word.

Thank you.


---------- Post added at 10:31 ---------- Previous post was at 10:30 ----------

Originally Posted by Hugh

I’m just as bad as the Torygraph, Daily Fail, and the Daily Excess?

OK, then...

The Torygraph is a highly respectable paper, noted, of course, for its investigative journalism and exposing the expenses scandal in particular.

[Carth]

I remember the health experts shouting and crying that smoking & drinking was a naughty thing to be doing - and a bad influence on children who saw their parents indulge.

Now they've successfully banned smoking virtually everywhere, and killed off the pub trade, I wonder what they think of the new scenario where everyone that does smoke & drink are doing so at home in front of their kids?

*fills glass, lights ciggy, goes back to staring out of the window*

If parents are smoking in the house with their children then health experts probably aren't happy but there isn't much they do can about it. Short of banning it all together then the reasonability lies with the parents surely?