Coronavirus

[jfman]

More figures for the AstraZeneca bingo card. 50% after one dose vs Kent - not sure PHE were pushing that figure in February.

Not sure that information was available in February, as the first OAZ vaccine was administered in early January...

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by jfman

More figures for the AstraZeneca bingo card. 50% after one dose vs Kent - not sure PHE were pushing that figure in February.

The results of this study were all that were avaiable back in February.

Between 1 October 2020 and 14 January 2021, the researchers used swabs taken from volunteers with both symptomatic and asymptomatic infection enrolled in a Phase II/III vaccine efficacy study to work out which strain of coronavirus they had been infected with after receiving either the vaccine or the control.

The protection against symptomatic infection was similar despite lower neutralising antibody titres in vaccinated individuals against the B.1.1.7 variant than the ‘Victoria’ strain of virus.

https://www.ddw-online.com/oxford-as...t-9666-202102/

Originally Posted by jfman

More figures for the AstraZeneca bingo card. 50% after one dose vs Kent - not sure PHE were pushing that figure in February.

The study where the figure came from took place between 5th April and 16th May.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57214596

[jfman]

I’m aware that this data set wasn’t available then, however there were no shortage of attempts at providing good news stories. Some purporting to show efficacy figures in the 70s and higher after one dose during February and March that I was naturally cynical about.

Originally Posted by jfman

I’m aware that this data set wasn’t available then, however there were no shortage of attempts at providing good news stories. Some purporting to show efficacy figures in the 70s and higher after one dose during February and March that I was naturally cynical about.

Not the "popular press", from 5th February.

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/e...of-sars-cov-2/

Prof Deborah Dunn-Walters, Chair of the British Society for Immunology COVID-19 and Immunology Taskforce, and Professor of Immunology at the University of Surrey, said:

The new pre-print published today presents data on how efficient the vaccine is against SARS-CoV-2 infection. It suggests that the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine reduces viral load, and the length of time that infected people can carry the virus. Moreover, it shows a similar level of effectiveness against symptomatic disease caused by the new UK variant of SARS-CoV-2 (called B.1.1.7) as it has shown against the previously circulating variant. With cases from the B.1.1.7 virus variant occurring at a high rate in the UK, this initial report can provide reassurance that the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine can still provide similar levels of protection against the new circulating virus variant.

Dr Gillies O’Bryan-Tear, Past Chair, Policy and Communications, Faculty of Pharmaceutical Medicine, said:

“Genome sequence analysis of a subset of both symptomatic and asymptomatic Covid cases from the Oxford vaccine study, during which the ‘E Kent’ variant B.1.1.7 became more frequent (reaching 28% of the symptomatic cases), showed that clinical efficacy against the new variant was similar for both variants, though the point estimate was slightly lower against the new variant (74% vs 84%), with overlapping confidence intervals meaning that the results are indistinguishable statistically

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Chris

The protection afforded by a single dose of either Pfizer or Astra is sufficiently low, in the case of the Indian variant, that the calculus has changed. It is no longer advantageous to get as many people as possible single-dosed - it’s important to get the second dose into people quickly. Some emerging data here:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57214596

Yes, all in all it's very good news that the vaccines are effective against the new strains with the caveat that two doses are needed. Hence a pivot of the vaccine programme to give the over-50s two doses sooner. Based on this, the likelihood of another national lockdown looks unlikley unless a vaccine-resistant strain develops.

Important to stress the "50%" statistic is about symptomatic infection.

[Mad Max]

Originally Posted by jfman

I’m aware that this data set wasn’t available then, however there were no shortage of attempts at providing good news stories. Some purporting to show efficacy figures in the 70s and higher after one dose during February and March that I was naturally cynical about.

Nothing new there then.

[1andrew1]

Seemingly on the back of Cummings' leaks, the press have been highlighting that the government did indeed have a herd immunity policy, which it is now denying the existence of.

Robert Peston
Downing Street has just said yet again that "'Herd Immunity'" was never the policy". Back in early March 2020, a senior minister and senior scientific advisers used that precise term with me to describe the policy. Which is why I wrote this [see post below 12/03/20] within minutes of a high level briefing. Which is why I find this denial bizarre, to put it mildly.

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1396794521946570752

British government wants UK to acquire coronavirus 'herd immunity', writes Robert Peston Thursday 12 March 2020, 8:57am

The strategy of the British government in minimising the impact of Covid-19 is to allow the virus to pass through the entire population so that we acquire herd immunity, but at a much delayed speed so that those who suffer the most acute symptoms are able to receive the medical support they need, and such that the health service is not overwhelmed and crushed by the sheer number of cases it has to treat at any one time.

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-12/...-robert-peston

---------- Post added at 14:42 ---------- Previous post was at 14:35 ----------

Another key person struggling with the Government's denial. This time the FT's chief leader writer.

Henry Mance @henrymance
pretty strange situation
- Cummings says: herd immunity was the initial plan
- Twitter says: boring, everyone knew that
- Downing Street says: no, it was never the plan

https://twitter.com/henrymance/statu...18043682779138

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Seemingly on the back of Cummings' leaks, the press have been highlighting that the government did indeed have a herd immunity policy, which it is now denying the existence of.

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1396794521946570752



https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-12/...-robert-peston

---------- Post added at 14:42 ---------- Previous post was at 14:35 ----------

Another key person struggling with the Government's denial. This time the FT's chief leader writer.


https://twitter.com/henrymance/statu...18043682779138

It really was the plan and there is news video to prove it. Early on, that did seem to be the way to go, but when numbers started increasing rapidly and they worked out how this would impact on the NHS, there was a quick reversal of that policy.

Incidentally, the PM was following the advice he had received at the time.

[jfman]

Those pesky scientists/civil servants.

I bet the bold Dom doesn't present it like that on Wednesday. I might watch it live with some popcorn.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

It really was the plan and there is news video to prove it. Early on, that did seem to be the way to go, but when numbers started increasing rapidly and they worked out how this would impact on the NHS, there was a quick reversal of that policy.

Incidentally, the PM was following the advice he had received at the time.

It seems strange that the government is now denying this, though.

---------- Post added at 17:47 ---------- Previous post was at 17:45 ----------

Originally Posted by jfman

Those pesky scientists/civil servants.

I bet the bold Dom doesn't present it like that on Wednesday. I might watch it live with some popcorn.

Something to record as well, just in case the Beeb don't keep it on iPlayer for very long.

[papa smurf]

So after declaring Cummins a liar and untrustworthy charlatan, you're willing to believe anything he says against Boris and the covid plan.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by papa smurf

So after declaring Cummins a liar and untrustworthy charlatan, you're willing to believe anything he says against Boris and the covid plan.

Oh - I do like that!