Coronavirus - Page 245

RichardCoulter · 13-02-2021, 02:04

All the trouble that this virus has caused in the world, yet if we were able to collect every bit of it together, it would all fit into a shot glass. Source: BBC More or Less programme.

jfman · 13-02-2021, 06:28

Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul

Though apparently you confuse inconvenience & 10 years in jail.

I’d rather they got 10 years in jail than we got another 10 months of lockdown.

**Paul** · 13-02-2021, 06:54

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman

I’d rather they got 10 years in jail than we got another 10 months of lockdown.

Which says all we need to know about you.

jfman · 13-02-2021, 07:18

Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul

Which says all we need to know about you.

We all want out of lockdown do we not? I’m not sure personal freedom extends to freedom to break the rules, potentially spread further variants of the virus and cause significant economic and social harm.

If you think it should then I think it says more about you.

TheDaddy · 13-02-2021, 09:36

Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul

Which says all we need to know about you.

What does it say? As it didn't sound unreasonable to me, why should people put up with lockdown and people dying just because some selfish berk can't tell the truth

jfman · 13-02-2021, 10:07

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

What does it say? As it didn't sound unreasonable to me, why should people put up with lockdown and people dying just because some selfish berk can't tell the truth

Paul is holding out for mythical option 3 which I didn't include, which is for covid denial, or at least those who believe it's greatly exaggerated, take over Government policy and we open up pretending it isn't a thing.

Some see it as a battle between left (collective social responsibility) and right (individual responsibility) despite the fact regimes as divergent as China, Iran, Cuba and liberal democracies leaning left and right have all come to the same conclusions around the need for Coronavirus restrictions.

Ultimately I view it as restrictions for the few (international travellers) vs the many (everyone). If opening up is that important then one of those is far preferable to the other. Or we can keep our yo-yo of restrictions into 2022.

Pierre · 13-02-2021, 11:11

The amount of people in hospital with COVID at the peak of the first wave was around 21,300 and those in ICU was inclusive of that was around 3,200.

When lock down restrictions started to ease in June it was around 3,000 & 311 respectively.

Looking at the slope of the current graph curves and extrapolating we may be at around those levels come mid-late March.

jfman · 13-02-2021, 11:52

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre

The amount of people in hospital with COVID at the peak of the first wave was around 21,300 and those in ICU was inclusive of that was around 3,200.

When lock down restrictions started to ease in June it was around 3,000 & 311 respectively.

Looking at the slope of the current graph curves and extrapolating we may be at around those levels come mid-late March.

There certainly could be scope to the main difference is there's already a commitment to try and get schools back first which wasn't the case in the summer. This will promote greater spread among kids and the unvaccinated (their parents).

That said if we work on the assumption that lockdown and the attempts to test, trace isolate new variants works I'm not a million miles away from you. Mid-late April might only be 4 weeks further along but would push cases right down, and following your trends pushes NHS utilisation right down. That pushes the potential need to reintroduce restrictions further into the long grass and hopefully (at vaccinating 8 million people in a combination of second/first doses in that time) creates a one way path out of restrictions.

spiderplant · 13-02-2021, 13:49

I've taken the daily new case data from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases and calculated the R value smoothed over 7 day periods. I've ignored data before June due to the lack of mass testing. What do we conclude? (Other than it's Saturday and I'm bored)

**Chris** · 13-02-2021, 14:05

It looks to me like the Kent Variant properly exploded onto the scene in mid November.

1andrew1 · 13-02-2021, 14:06

Quote:

UK scientists call for debate on allowing ‘big wave of infection’

Advisers to government warn of national discussion after most vulnerable are vaccinated

UK scientific advisers have questioned whether a “big wave of infection” should be allowed to flow through the country’s population once the most vulnerable groups in society have been vaccinated against coronavirus, in comments which may reopen the contentious debate around herd immunity.

With prime minister Boris Johnson preparing to set out the road map for lifting England’s Covid-19 lockdown on February 22, the scientists have warned a national discussion will soon be needed on the level of risk people are prepared to accept from the virus in the future.

“There will be a massive debate about whether we should allow a big wave of infection once we’ve vaccinated all the over-50s,” one influential member of the government’s Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M) told the FT. “Are we going to aim for low prevalence or accept high prevalence for a period?”

“It boils down to what we, as a society, are prepared to accept,” added Mike Tildesley, an academic at the University of Warwick and also a member of SPI-M. “We see waves of seasonal influenza and we don’t lockdown every winter, we accept a level of risk.

https://www.ft.com/content/100df7f6-...9-d7f3e859bae5

jfman · 13-02-2021, 14:07

Quote:

Originally Posted by spiderplant

I've taken the daily new case data from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases and calculated the R value smoothed over 7 day periods. I've ignored data before June due to the lack of mass testing. What do we conclude? (Other than it's Saturday and I'm bored)

Only proper lockdown keeps R below 1?

**Paul** · 13-02-2021, 15:42

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman

If you think it should then I think it says more about you.

Yes, of course you think 10 years for failing to fill in a form is reasonable.
I'm not surprised of course.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman

Paul is holding out for mythical option 3

More of your asshole nonsense, exactly when did I appoint you to speak for me.
Dont make that mistake again.

papa smurf · 13-02-2021, 15:47

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

https://www.ft.com/content/100df7f6-...9-d7f3e859bae5

Could be the way forward.

jfman · 13-02-2021, 16:35

Quote:

Originally Posted by papa smurf

Could be the way forward.

There's a few of these stories floating around considering we've a world leading vaccination programme on the go.

---------- Post added at 15:35 ---------- Previous post was at 15:28 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul

Yes, of course you think 10 years for failing to fill in a form is reasonable.
I'm not surprised of course.

The 10 years has been clarified as being pursued under the Fraud Act. That requires a wilful act of deceit - forgetting to fill in a form and making it to the quarantine hotel wouldn't reach the evidence threshold.

Lying about your country or origin on the other hand would.