Coronavirus

[jfman]

Let's just say I look forward to you being proven wrong on June 22, OB.

The messaging from the Government is deliberately unclear and evasive. Their hands are over the emergency stop button and it's staring you right in the face if you pay attention to the parts of sentences you deliberately ignore or omit.

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

So far, all of the vaccines work against the variants. Vaccines can be modified in about six weeks to take account of new strains where necessary. Like flu, there will be appropriately modified vaccines each year to be used as boosters. In fact, they may introduce joint flu/Covid vaccines.

---------- Post added at 13:33 ---------- Previous post was at 13:32 ----------



And you are accusing me of using selective arguments.

Modifying a vaccine in 6 weeks is not the same as manufacturing millions of doses and getting them into everyone’s arms. That takes months, as we’re now well aware. And on a global scale our vaccine rollout has been one of the quickest ones.

*If* the India variant is a vaccine escape mutant then we will be back to lockdowns in time. It would be inevitable. Thankfully at the moment the mounting data suggest that this is not a vaccine escape scenario, but rather the consequence of certain clusters of people not coming forward to get vaccinated when first asked.

[jfman]

The problem is if it's not binary we are still in a place where we need some restrictions for some time ongoing.

If it dents efficacy 10% not much concern. 20-30% might be enough to prevent lockdowns but leave areas stuck in restrictions similar to the last three weeks or the next three, but still further away from abandoning all distancing and masks on an entirely arbitrary date that some desire. Local lockdown remains realistic in areas of vaccine hesitancy.

The data in the next few weeks should offer some clarity around it.

Interestingly though, a lot of the vaccine hesitancy (in Bolton at least) seems only to be skin deep. Threaten the locals with prolonged restrictions that no longer apply to their neighbouring towns and they queue round the block to get their jab.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Chris

Interestingly though, a lot of the vaccine hesitancy (in Bolton at least) seems only to be skin deep. Threaten the locals with prolonged restrictions that no longer apply to their neighbouring towns and they queue round the block to get their jab.

I heartily approve of such a strategy!

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by Chris

Modifying a vaccine in 6 weeks is not the same as manufacturing millions of doses and getting them into everyone’s arms. That takes months, as we’re now well aware. And on a global scale our vaccine rollout has been one of the quickest ones.

*If* the India variant is a vaccine escape mutant then we will be back to lockdowns in time. It would be inevitable. Thankfully at the moment the mounting data suggest that this is not a vaccine escape scenario, but rather the consequence of certain clusters of people not coming forward to get vaccinated when first asked.

Few onion seeds a dash of turmeric and a cardamom pod and there you have it one "indianised" vaccine

My mum used to turn leftover Bolognese into chilli con carne by adding kidney beans and a teaspoon of chilli powder

[spiderplant]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

So far, all of the vaccines work against the variants.

The AZ vaccine doesn't work well with the South African variant, if at all.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/...ant-inefficacy

And Sinovac CoronaVac works poorly with the Brazilian variant
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-56731801

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by spiderplant

The AZ vaccine doesn't work well with the South African variant, if at all.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/...ant-inefficacy

I'm not sure you fully understand what reports on the AZ effectiveness on the SA variant actually say. It fails to prevent the person getting moderate to mild symptoms but it does prevent serious illness. So you may get a cough and sniffles but not go to hospital and or die.

Also that was done on a small sample size (2000) with an average age of 31.

And Sinovac CoronaVac works poorly with the Brazilian variant
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-56731801

Depends what you mean by poorly, that report advises efficacy of between 50-65% but does not give detail on the severity of any infection post vaccination, if it stops serious illness and hospitilisation then it's done its job as far as I can tell.

[jfman]

It prevents serious illness in a sample size so small with an average age you wouldn't expect serious illness.

For reference check your own statistics produced only yesterday.

"If it stops serious illness" is a big if based on the data available. Hence the sensible step to alert the public of a potential pause while real world data is evaluated.

[spiderplant]

Originally Posted by Pierre

I'm not sure you fully understand what reports on the AZ effectiveness on the SA variant actually say. It fails to prevent the
person getting moderate to mild symptoms but it does prevent serious illness.

No, it says nothing about serious illness. It might prevent it, it might not. But the doubts were serious enough for SA to sell 1 million doses that had already been delivered, and switch to J&J instead.

Originally Posted by Pierre

Depends what you mean by poorly, that report advises efficacy of between 50-65% but does not give detail on the severity of any infection post vaccination, if it stops serious illness and hospitilisation then it's done its job as far as I can tell.

The ongoing case and death rates in Chile, despite having 47% of the population vaccinated, suggest otherwise:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/chile
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by spiderplant

No, it says nothing about serious illness. It might prevent it, it might not. But the doubts were serious enough for SA to sell 1 million doses that had already been delivered, and switch to J&J instead.

The ongoing case and death rates in Chile, despite having 47% of the population vaccinated, suggest otherwise:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/chile
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

Link

And while the vaccination rollout has indeed been fast, it only started in late December, with front-line health care workers, those over 90, and teachers first in line.
So the vast majority of Chileans would not yet have been vaccinated by the time they met up with relatives and friends for their summer holidays in January and February.
...
There is also confusion about how the vaccine that the vast majority in the country has received works, Prof Bueno adds. More than 93% of the doses administered in Chile so far have been CoronaVac, produced by the Beijing-based biopharmaceutical company Sinovac.
Data on the efficacy of the CoronaVac vaccine is varied. Brazilian trials suggested an efficacy rate of around 50.4% but results from late-stage trials in Indonesia and Turkey suggested a much higher rate - between 65% and 83%.

Link

There are now 86 local authorities with five or more confirmed cases of the Indian Covid variant, Health Secretary Matt Hancock has said.
"This isn't just about Bolton and Blackburn," he said, referring to the areas seeing a spike in cases.

Vaccines don't take effect instantly, it takes time for the immune system to generate any immunity. During that time, people are still susceptible to getting the real thing. People are going to ignore that and end up still spreading it.

Vaccination centres might end up being super-spreader events with loads of younger people and others who have not followed the simple rules, now attending them.

[jfman]

Oh dear Old Boy. June 22 isn't looking so good.

https://www.itv.com/news/2021-05-17/...1-close-to-nil

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by jfman

Oh dear Old Boy. June 22 isn't looking so good.

https://www.itv.com/news/2021-05-17/...1-close-to-nil

I’ve said it before, There should be one metric and one metric only, that determines the government’s actions and that is hospitalisation rates.

Initially the only reason for restrictions being imposed was to ease pressure on the NHS.

If the NHS is not under pressure, there should be no restrictions.

But we’ve given the government too much power, they’ve been allowed to act like a totalitarian regime and they like it. They want to retain control so they move the reasoning.

It’s no longer about easing pressure on the NHS, it’ll be some other reason, keeping infection rates down to an arbitrary level, or zero Covid.

It’ll be a fight to get our freedoms and rights back, if Captain Hindsight had any sense that’s the fight he should be taking to the Government and the one he should have been doing all the way through this.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Pierre

I’ve said it before, There should be one metric and one metric only, that determines the government’s actions and that is hospitalisation rates.

Initially the only reason for restrictions being imposed was to ease pressure on the NHS.

If the NHS is not under pressure, there should be no restrictions.

But we’ve given the government too much power, they’ve been allowed to act like a totalitarian regime and they like it. They want to retain control so they move the reasoning.

It’s no longer about easing pressure on the NHS, it’ll be some other reason, keeping infection rates down to an arbitrary level, or zero Covid.

It’ll be a fight to get our freedoms and rights back, if Captain Hindsight had any sense that’s the fight he should be taking to the Government and the one he should have been doing all the way through this.

In fairness you’ve been wrong every single time you’ve said it before, so I doubt Captain Hindsight will be coming to this thread for insight into how to outflank Boris in managing the pandemic. The polls have Boris crunching Captain Hindsight into the ground and I doubt erroneous pandemic management is going to swing it.