Coronavirus (OLD)

Well I'm thinking there's going to be a spike in the figures if these protests and riots keep going for any length of time.

[Carth]

oooops

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-53034924

An area of the Chinese capital Beijing has been put under strict lockdown measures after the city's first coronavirus cases in more than 50 days.

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by Hugh

They used SAGE guidance to inform policy - not the same thing.

Yes, and SAGE did not advocate lockdown, that was a political decision.

[1andrew1]

Interesting insights from Bloomberg. I think Johnson needs to appoint a deputy PM to re-energise things.

Boris Johnson’s Team Is Broken by the Virus and Losing Faith
The British handling of the pandemic is raising critical questions within the governing Conservative Party.
Inside Boris Johnson’s government, senior officials are exhausted, demoralized and starting to despair.
Their dreams of reshaping Britain for a bright post-Brexit world have been blown off course by coronavirus. With more than 41,000 Covid-19 deaths in the U.K., Johnson has presided over the worst record in the world after the U.S.

Now Britain faces among the heaviest financial tolls from the pandemic of any major economy, and the deepest recession in 300 years. In the background is the specter of compounding the pain by failing to reach a trade deal with the European Union, with Johnson next week set to try to rescue talks that are going nowhere.

As the Conservatives suffer a slump in the polls just six months after an emphatic election win, critically some within the party are also losing faith.
“I don’t know why we are doing what we are doing any more,” one Tory confided. Johnson’s team inside Downing Street are “running on empty,” said another. “There is a lot of unhappiness in the party,” said a third. “People are less and less impressed with Number 10.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...d-losing-faith

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

The article goes on to explain the difference that the team would have made.

We would have stress-tested the Government’s contingency plans for dealing with a pandemic.

I'm sure that sounds good, but is pretty meaningless, how do you 'stress-test' a plan exactly ?

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Interesting insights from Bloomberg. I think Johnson needs to appoint a deputy PM to re-energise things.

Johnson has presided over the worst record in the world after the U.S.

[Second] Worst record of what exactly ?
As far as CV19 is concerned, we are not second at either deaths or cases.

[jfman]

Deaths per capita probably.

Originally Posted by Paul

I'm sure that sounds good, but is pretty meaningless, how do you 'stress-test' a plan exactly ?



[Second] Worst record of what exactly ?
As far as CV19 is concerned, we are not second at either deaths or cases.

We used the Gartner approach as a starting point for stress testing our Business Continuity Plans - running simulations (including desk top run throughs) would highlight gaps in our planning and if the initial assumptions we had based our plans on were still valid; we found out we had a lot of "single points of failure" (people, equipment, and process) and dependencies on suppliers’ responses that were not backed up by contractual agreements.

Originally Posted by jfman

Deaths per capita probably.

So just keep going through stats until you find one that fits ....

We're third for deaths: https://www.worldometers.info/corona...20%22countries

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by Paul

So just keep going through stats until you find one that fits ....

41,698 dead (probably a lot more) isn't a great stat, the worst in Europe. Most of those deaths could have been avoided if our Govt had acted as quickly and competently as other Governments.

[Julian]

Originally Posted by Mr K

41,698 dead (probably a lot more) isn't a great stat, the worst in Europe. Most of those deaths could have been avoided if our Govt had acted as quickly and competently as other Governments.

Two words making the post pointless.

Originally Posted by Mr K

41,698 dead (probably a lot more) isn't a great stat,

No one said it was, but thats not the point being questioned .... and "probably" isnt a fact. There are "probably" more in every country.

Originally Posted by Mr K

Most of those deaths could have been avoided if our Govt had acted as quickly and competently as other Governments.

Most ? Wishful thinking. Its likely there would have been less, thats all you can say.

[jfman]

We can’t turn the clock back but I just hope someone somewhere is crunching all the data. Who is at risk, where, when, why etc. and learning the lessons for if there is a resurgence of the virus.

Who should shield, for how long, what areas should lock down, regional travel restrictions should all be on the table going forward if the situation deteriorates (with better data available than in March). This could allow some of the country to operate normally, but would require people to be compliant to nuanced instructions.

It’s taken a monumental effort, and great cost, to get here and in the worse case scenario it could all be for nothing.

[nomadking]

The snag is that if the government goes all out heavy with the next one, and there will be a next one, if it's turns out to be a bit of damp squid of a virus.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by nomadking

The snag is that if the government goes all out heavy with the next one, and there will be a next one, if it's turns out to be a bit of damp squid of a virus.

That’s not really a snag compared to doing nothing and tens of thousands dying. The health and economic impact would be much worse longer term if it’s not controlled.

To go “all out heavy” and nothing come of it you can quickly open everything back up and minimise impact. Underplay it and it could take months to get back under control.