Coronavirus

[joglynne]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Problem is that there is often a 2 to 3 week lag between initial infection and admittance to hospital - waiting until the NHS is in danger of being overwhelmed is like only applying your car brakes when you are 5 feet from the car in front.

Originally Posted by downquark1

Yes but you can wait until the NHS is projected to be under load. There is now masses of data so this should be possible.

I think you are both saying the same thing and that preparing the Nightingale sites in areas currently experiencing rising hospital/ICU intakes due high Covis-19 shows that the government /NHS are trying to react to the projected figures.

I just hope that those who can't see what could happen have had their brakes serviced.

[downquark1]

Originally Posted by joglynne

I think you are both saying the same thing and that preparing the Nightingale sites in areas currently experiencing rising hospital/ICU intakes due high Covis-19 shows that the government /NHS are trying to react to the projected figures.

I just hope that those who can't see what could happen have had their brakes serviced.

This is fair but I'm not sure we are even reaching saturation. Last time a thousand people were dying a day and I was told that most of the nightingale hospitals were completely empty. think yesterday it was 50.

I feel I have no clue what is going on any more.

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by downquark1

This is fair but I'm not sure we are even reaching saturation. Last time a thousand people were dying a day and I was told that most of the nightingale hospitals were completely empty. think yesterday it was 50.

I feel I have no clue what is going on any more.

I wonder how many of those deaths were assisted by lack of health care since the nhs closed it's doors in march.

[jonbxx]

Originally Posted by papa smurf

I wonder how many of those deaths were assisted by lack of health care since the nhs closed it's doors in march.

Easy enough to check, the ONS publishes figures for deaths in England and Wales and separates out COVID in respiratory causes of death. If you subtract COVID registrations, we are around the 5 year average week by week this year. Some weeks up, some weeks down.

Fill your boots here - https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...5september2020

Excel download at the bottom...

[jfman]

For what it’s worth, and in fairness, I do think Pierre is making a very good point. However we don’t have the confidence a) that we are quickly finding cases or b) that test, trace, isolate is finding contacts.

Without this you end up stuck modelling growth - which is unfortunately inevitable without the above. We can introduce these measures now, or in two weeks, or in four. All we will have to show for it is more ill people and more deaths. It won’t save the economy, it’s only likely that the restriction phase will run for a longer period of time before we enter a phase of reduced restrictions.

Whitty and Vallance are already on record saying we are likely to cycle in and out for months to come. The question isn’t the merits of the restrictions, it’s the merits of delay. If we are going to keep restrictions until test, trace, isolate gets under control and figures drop to 5,000 a day or so it’s better to start now.

[Mr K]

So they haven't been following the science over the last few weeks and cases have spiralled. From here on in the Govt is solely responsible.

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by Mr K

So they haven't been following the science over the last few weeks and cases have spiralled. From here on in the Govt is solely responsible.

I don't know what the rules are any more and quite honestly i no longer care,bugger all is working and the forecast is doom death and disaster,i'm going to put some beer in the fridge and put my tin foil hat on.

[joglynne]

Originally Posted by downquark1

This is fair but I'm not sure we are even reaching saturation. Last time a thousand people were dying a day and I was told that most of the nightingale hospitals were completely empty. think yesterday it was 50.

I feel I have no clue what is going on any more.

I belong to a several forums where people are waiting for major surgery, life changing surgery which is unfortunately designated as Elective. Along with many other people waiting for many other forms of elective surgery my friend's surgeries where put on hold because of lack of beds, resourses and staff due to the concentrated efforts needed to cope with hospitalisation of Covid-19 patients. These people in my area have been waiting for their operations since March and have been informed that it will be at least next Spring before their surgeons lists will be re-opened as beds have to be kept free for emergency cases.

Our Nightingale in Manchester is now being prepared and hopefully if this is used as more than just an overflow area it may allow some of the routine operations to go ahead.

[Carth]

Today, the local press are stating that our area has:

1) A large drop in the number of positive cases reported.
2) An increase in those hospitalised with (not due to) the virus.
3) Getting nearer to the level 2 of lockdown due to a rise in cases (see 1 )

I've now traded in the tin foil hat for a shotgun, and will be going press reporter hunting . . when I find which school they attend

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by Carth

Today, the local press are stating that our area has:

1) A large drop in the number of positive cases reported.
2) An increase in those hospitalised with (not due to) the virus.
3) Getting nearer to the level 2 of lockdown due to a rise in cases (see 1 )

I've now traded in the tin foil hat for a shotgun, and will be going press reporter hunting . . when I find which school they attend

Hospitals in Grimsby, Scunthorpe and Goole are currently treating 27 people for covid across all three sites - a rise of six inpatients in four days.
Two of the people currently being treated are in intensive care units, although it has not been confirmed whether they are using ventilators.

https://www.grimsbytelegraph.co.uk/n...spital-4601474



The next thing to happen will be a fake food shortage just to ramp up the panic, followed by full lockdown then the vague promise of being allowed some kind of reduced xmas celebration.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Pierre

641 - 8th October

462 - 30th September

So an increase of 28%, but an increase all the same, but compared to the peak figure

3,564 - 1st April, only 18% of peak.

Nightingale hospitals on standby?

8th October - 436 on ventilators.

10th April - 3,301 on ventilators. Bearing in mind that during the peak we didn’t out weigh ventilator capacity, so we still have at the very least 7.5 x capacity we are currently using.

Covid patients in hospital 9th October- 3,788

Covid patients in hospital at peak - 21,209 = 5.5 x capacity being used, considering we didn’t use the nightingales, putting them on “standby“ helps fuel a narrative.

Oh and the last one deaths.

Still well below 100, not been above 100 Since July.

The data is there for all.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare

I’ll wait another week. See what happens.

There is a geographical element to all of this too though - the FT is reporting that Liverpool's intensive care hospitals there are 95% full. Looks like the nearest Nightingale (Manchester) can't open soon enough.

The three hospitals that make up the trust have been divided into coronavirus and non-coronavirus wards. There are currently only two beds available out of 60 across the sites for patients not suffering from Covid-19 but in need of ventilation, according to one senior doctor. “We’ve got plenty of ventilators but we don’t have the beds,” the doctor added. “There’s a feeling of dread at the moment.”

In a letter seen by the Financial Times, GPs in Liverpool have been warned that the city’s two biggest hospitals are “full” and encouraged to consider “stepped up care at home” for some patients, to avoid hospital admissions.

https://www.ft.com/content/53272e22-...4-004d0328fdfa

[jfman]

We need to take the Swedish approach. Raise public expenditure to nearly 50% of GDP and invest in infrastructure. Raise effective tax rates for the most well off. Raise capital gains tax. 14 days sick pay for all.

[Mad Max]

Originally Posted by Mr K

So they haven't been following the science over the last few weeks and cases have spiralled. From here on in the Govt is solely responsible.

They cannot be blamed for the nut jobs just ignoring the advice, and all those hugging etc etc when leaving the pubs and heading to house parties.

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by jfman

We need to take the Swedish approach. Raise public expenditure to nearly 50% of GDP and invest in infrastructure. Raise effective tax rates for the most well off. Raise capital gains tax. 14 days sick pay for all.

Do any of these tax rises affect you?

Originally Posted by jfman

We need to take the Swedish approach. Raise public expenditure to nearly 50% of GDP and invest in infrastructure. Raise effective tax rates for the most well off. Raise capital gains tax. 14 days sick pay for all.

Here we go, lets tax the rich & spend, spend, spend ..... the 1970's are calling you.