Coronavirus

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by jfman

There are no rewards to reap if we suddenly find ourselves reintroducing restrictions in June and reevaluating the whole game plan. Those who want to stay "hidden under the stairs" as you put it often cannot - they need to go out to work, care for family members, buy essential goods. The safety of which depends on prevalence of the virus and the numbers vaccinated.

If it were truly binary I'd get your point, but it isn't. There's no furlough scheme for those with a personal preference to not take the risk, and no guarantee that employers will continue to permit working from home.

I'm also sick of restrictions that's why I want them to get it right first time. Case numbers are falling though the floor, and vaccine numbers going up through the roof. If there's ever been a time to stick with it for a few weeks, that time is absolutely now. Easing restrictions will get safer and quicker the further down case numbers go and further up vaccinations go.

The end looks firmly in sight and we need this to be the final lockdown.

[Sephiroth]

I don't think the end is in sight at all. Jfman's key point is to "stick with it for a few weeks"; he want the Guvmin to get it right.

Carriers who infect anyone else introduce the risk of virus mutation into something that will get us.

Easing restrictions will get safer and quicker the further down case numbers go and further up vaccinations go.

[papa smurf]

Let's hope it's over before paranoia sets in

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by papa smurf

Let's hope it's over before paranoia sets in

A bit late for that papa.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

I don't think the end is in sight at all. Jfman's key point is to "stick with it for a few weeks"; he want the Guvmin to get it right.

Carriers who infect anyone else introduce the risk of virus mutation into something that will get us

The end is definitely in sight, but it's clearly not days away. We definitely can't have another lockdown so I'm happy for this one to last a bit longer to ensure we get it right. I think we're on the same page here.

[jfman]

I think Seph means "the end" to be no restrictions, which depends on a lot of intermediate steps taking place safely with a gradual approach for the reasons Chris outlined above. That's much, much further away than Easter/May/early summer. However every 4-6 weeks it could/should ease.

Masks, distancing and working from home encouraged as offices will initially return at reduced capacity for a period (months) will likely to be the last to go.

Hospitality will probably reopen with multiple phases initially outdoor, probably a 2 metre distance followed by a one metre distancing to reduce capacity before no restrictions. International tourism will remain precarious until other countries get to a better situation.

There will likely be a nervousness around the return of school after summer and students flocking to university in September if those remain largely unvaccinated. (I think there's an argument to vaccinate students before they start moving round the country en masse).

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by jfman

I think Seph means "the end" to be no restrictions, which depends on a lot of intermediate steps taking place safely with a gradual approach for the reasons Chris outlined above. That's much, much further away than Easter/May/early summer. However every 4-6 weeks it could/should ease.

Masks, distancing and working from home encouraged as offices will initially return at reduced capacity for a period (months) will likely to be the last to go.

Hospitality will probably reopen with multiple phases initially outdoor, probably a 2 metre distance followed by a one metre distancing to reduce capacity before no restrictions. International tourism will remain precarious until other countries get to a better situation.

There will likely be a nervousness around the return of school after summer and students flocking to university in September if those remain largely unvaccinated. (I think there's an argument to vaccinate students before they start moving round the country en masse).

Got you - was thinking of the end to lockdown, full normality is some way off, I agree.

This has to the last lockdown. I can't imagine the mental hit, let alone the economical one, if they announced ANOTHER lockdown in the summer or winter.

So as horrible as it is a few more weeks to drive the cases down and ensure a higher amount of people are vaccinated before slowly opening up might be worth it.

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

I see no reason why we shouldn't lift all restrictions by Easter.

I hate (really hate) lockdowns, as well as the hype & paranoia around the virus.

However, anyone can see that Easter is never going to be an option to lift all restrictions.
Its only 7 weeks away - I would expect some restrictions to be gone by then, but ALL of them ? Not happening.

You are living in fantasy land if you think that.

[jfman]

Interesting from the scientists in China trying to get to the bottom of the original source that there were 13 different variants in December 2019.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/14/h...ntl/index.html

Although there are thousands and we only hear about the most prevalent/most concerning it certainly moves back he timeline for the outbreak.

[jonbxx]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Likewise, very few schools have closed, my kids school is at 60-70% occupancy depending on what day.

There does seem to be a huge variation in school occupancy. My kids school was really empty in January. My eldest (14) was with one other pupil which is 1.7% occupancy. The younger one shared her year with 3 others (3.3%) Even last week, it was around 15% with the numbers going up due to getting all the kids in who never turned up to online lessons/drove their parents mad going in.

My kids loved it when it was really empty as they essentially had personal tutors. Not so happy now that all the kids not interested in learning are showing up but still prefer it to home study

[tweetiepooh]

Was thinking that once we vaccinate those at most clinical risk of acute symptoms from CV19 maybe we target those at a higher risk of infection. That is those with the greatest number of varied interactions.

So we protect the vulnerable, then try to create choke points to reduce spread. This does rely on the data that indicates vaccines reducing infectivity are correct. So hospitality workers, shop keeps/store workers, police, teachers (and related), students and so on. Some will be in the vulnerable groups others in other priority groups but we do want to prevent any "typhoid Mary" types.

I guess part of the problem there is defining the groups accurately and the data is less accurate and more variable than age and clinical need.

[Hom3r]

My mental health has suffered during this nightmare.

As you know I lost my job, but worst of all my mum.

We are a close family, and we would see my sister who lives locally, but because of coronavirus this stopped us meeting apart from the few time the law allowed.

The last time I hugged my family was the day of my mums funeral on October the 13th.

So now it just me and my dad who at the beginning of the year possibly had a TIA and we are waiting for a trip to Romford's Queen Hospital for test.

So I just spend my days job searching, cooking and doing the laundry and shopping as required.

Even though I live with my dad I sometimes do feel very lonely and miss going to work and the abuse you give/get to colleges.

[jfman]

"Cautious but irreversible".

I should write for Boris.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by jfman

"Cautious but irreversible".

I should write for Boris.

It's about being sufficiently cautious (aka slow?) so that the incremental steps need not be reversed at any point.