Coronavirus

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by heero_yuy

Clearly NOT hospitality. IIRC 38% of cases are at Uni's and another 38% related to schools.

1) Closing them didn't stop it.
2) How are they not similar to any other sort of gathering? They are premises being targeted for testing, so of course you're going to find more cases.
3) Which nonsense report are you using?
4) How and where did the students get it from?
5) Are people at University and Teachers at schools not going anywhere else?

Link

Chatting in pubs, restaurants and homes was "mostly" how coronavirus spread before Wales' firebreak lockdown, Public Health Wales has said.
Dr Chris Williams, of PHW's data analysing surveillance team, said most cases had nothing to do with venues making mistakes.
The cases were simply down to how people behaved.
"It's not to do particularly with the nature of the pub or the bar," said Dr Williams.
"It's just the fact that you're talking to someone across a table who's in a different household.
"Talking, unfortunately, is great for transmission, as is singing and shouting.
"Those are the kind of things that we see, that manifest themselves in the rising numbers."

[heero_yuy]

Originally Posted by nomadking

1) Closing them didn't stop it.

Exactly the point I'm making: It's spreading in other ways and to destroy pubs, restaurants, jobs and livelihoods on a whim is very misguided IMO.

People have just stopped socially distancing outside covid secure venues especially now they're wearing masks and think they're invulnerable. They're all over each other especially teenagers.

[denphone]

Originally Posted by heero_yuy

Exactly the point I'm making: It's spreading in other ways and to destroy pubs, restaurants, jobs and livelihoods on a whim is very misguided IMO.

People have just stopped socially distancing outside covid secure venues especially now they're wearing masks and think they're invulnerable. They're all over each other especially teenagers.

Its not just teenagers though as l have witnessed quite a few older people with the same type of attitude as well.

[jonbxx]

Originally Posted by nomadking

The assumption of this nonsense report is that there were no other factors. Hasidic/Orthodox Jews are an obvious publicised example(eg New York) of people still gathering in large groups. There have been several documented instances from around the world, where there have been multiple infections and deaths arising from large gatherings, especially religious ones(of whatever religion).

The report does touch on proximity to others in the work place and there is a correlation between COVID death rate and how close you are to others. There is also a correlation between income and overcrowding in the home. Finally, there is a correlation between deprivation percentile and COVID mortality.

Picking up on the Hasidic Jew thing, you can see Jewish men have a pretty high mortality risk.

For what it's looking at, the report seems pretty compelling to me.

Check out section 8a for how much booze and drugs we got through during the first lockdown BTW. White male pensioners with degrees really going for it on the booze!

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by jonbxx

The report does touch on proximity to others in the work place and there is a correlation between COVID death rate and how close you are to others. There is also a correlation between income and overcrowding in the home. Finally, there is a correlation between deprivation percentile and COVID mortality.

Picking up on the Hasidic Jew thing, you can see Jewish men have a pretty high mortality risk.

For what it's looking at, the report seems pretty compelling to me.

Check out section 8a for how much booze and drugs we got through during the first lockdown BTW. White male pensioners with degrees really going for it on the booze!

I have no doubt you could find all sorts of correlations, eg being a Labour voter.
Hasidic Jews routinely have large gatherings for one thing or another. The stories from New York demonstrated that.
The outbreak occurred BEFORE any lockdowns and behaviour associated with it. The doubling of risk for men was across all racial groups.
The aim is to restrict spreading BETWEEN DIFFERENT households.

Originally Posted by nomadking

Utter garbage.
Men in general were more affected than women, where does that come into it. Twice as much, across all groups. Iran was badly affected, including senior government officials. The richer Northern part of Italy was affected more than the poorer South. In the UK hospital consultants not exactly on poverty pay were badly affected. In the UK and the US, Hasidic/Orthodox Jews were badly affected.

The biggest factor was people's behaviour, particularly of still insisting on gathering in large groups.

I wonder if you even bothered to read the report before trashing it.

I suspect you don’t have evidence to justify discounting it so thoroughly, nor for insisting on your own no doubt exhaustive study of the data. Though having asked I imagine you’re now going to post me a ton of tangentially related links, with minimal interpretive input from your good self.

To the report: it has been recognised from quite an early stage that *mortality* (which what’s at issue here, not mere transmission) is affected by a number of factors. Respiratory health is one such factor, age is another (I suspect that’s a combination of respiratory health plus weaker immune response). However the issue affecting hospital staff, even the young-ish, healthy consultants, is viral load. If you get a big initial dose of virus particles then it multiplies in your body that much faster and your immune system struggles to cope. Viral load is also a major contributor to *mortality* in low income households which are statistically more likely to be living in smaller dwellings, and are more likely to be living in chaotic circumstances where household hygiene is more difficult to maintain.

[Carth]

Originally Posted by jonbxx

White male pensioners with degrees really going for it on the booze!

and why not, waited 65 years to be able to get pi$$ed every evening without the hassle of work the next day

. . . well not too pi$$ed on my pension & bills, but it's the thought that counts

[jonbxx]

Originally Posted by nomadking

I have no doubt you could find all sorts of correlations, eg being a Labour voter.
Hasidic Jews routinely have large gatherings for one thing or another. The stories from New York demonstrated that.
The outbreak occurred BEFORE any lockdowns and behaviour associated with it. The doubling of risk for men was across all racial groups.
The aim is to restrict spreading BETWEEN DIFFERENT households.

Our Jewish friends are specifically mentioned in the report;

..celebrations to mark the Jewish festival of Purim in
March may have contributed to the spread of the virus
among Jewish communities (76). Many Ultra-Orthodox
Jewish communities, which have high rates of infection,
have limited access to the internet and the media and
may be less likely to adhere to physical distancing and
self-isolation when presenting with symptoms. There
have been several efforts from community leaders to
ensure ultra-Orthodox communities adhere to national
guidelines and safety measures and messaging has been
emphasised during the Jewish holiday season, but high
rates of infection still remained in October

The report does highlight the differences in mortality between men and women all the way through the relevant chapters. Interestingly, the correlation between deprivation and sex seems much much stronger for men than women (figure 2.4)

I am finding that by making it clear that I wish to maintain the two metre distance, that nearly everyone respects my obvious desire to do so.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by heero_yuy

the correlation between deprivation and sex seems much much stronger for men than women

Depends how depraved you want your sex.

[Mr K]

Why are we so obsessed about poxy Christmas? Best to give it a miss and see our relatives next year, alive.

They will be alive regardless.

Not necessarily

Originally Posted by Mr K

Why are we so obsessed about poxy Christmas? Best to give it a miss and see our relatives next year, alive.

[jonbxx]

Originally Posted by Mr K

Why are we so obsessed about poxy Christmas? Best to give it a miss and see our relatives next year, alive.

Agreed! If I was in charge (luckily for all you of that I'm not) I would float the idea of an extra bank holiday tagged on to Easter, May or Whitsun bank holidays saying 'here's the deal, keep your heads down now while things are rough and we can have Christmas 2.0 later when thing get better'