Coronavirus (OLD)

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by Julian

You may find THIS explains the decision, based on scientific evidence and advice.

"Of course there is a risk," he said. "But on average one person infects two or three others.
"You therefore have a very low probability of infecting a large number of people in a stadium, or a rather higher probability of infecting people very close to you, and that means most of the transmission tends to takes place with friends and colleagues in close environments, not in the big environments.
"It is true that any cancellations of things can have some effect (but) if you then get a displacement activity, when everyone congregates somewhere else, you may have perversely an increased risk, particularly in an indoors environment.

The problem with large gatherings of people who have gathered from afar, is that it takes just one transmission from a person from one area to transfer it to another area. Instead of one close group being potentially affected, two get affected.

[Aye Up]

Originally Posted by peanut

Boris is a knob head to still allow large gatherings.

If Boris thought it was necessary to stop large gatherings he would have done so.

Medical and Scientific advice is leading this, if the experts say gathering is to be banned then it will happen on their advice alone, I don't think he is playing fast and loose with the health of the public.

[downquark1]

Originally Posted by Aye Up

If Boris thought it was necessary to stop large gatherings he would have done so.

Medical and Scientific advice is leading this, if the experts say gathering is to be banned then it will happen on their advice alone, I don't think he is playing fast and loose with the health of the public.

He will do so in a week or two. They are pacing people, if you restrict people too soon they will get bored and roam when the situation has got much worse.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Hom3r

did my weekly shop, no pasta, alcohol cleaner, or frozen veg.

So ready meals it is then.


Had toilet roll though.

No such issues at my local Tesco up here in Yorkshire, shelves all stocked no one acting like a dick.

---------- Post added at 21:31 ---------- Previous post was at 21:30 ----------

Originally Posted by peanut

Boris is a knob head to still allow large gatherings.

Are the Chief Medical Officer and Science Officer knobs too?

Originally Posted by peanut

Boris is a knob head to still allow large gatherings.

Italy has banned large gatherings and the country is on lock down, the infection is still spreading very rapidly, so work that out will you?

So Boris isn’t a knob. When you become an expert at Behavioural studies, come to learn that we’re not at the peak of this infection spread, banning large gatherings now would be a costly mistake.

[nomadking]

Other EU countries have only very recently introduced various bans, eg Ireland just a matter of hours ago. Are those leaders also KHs for not acting before?

[spiderplant]

"Of course there is a risk," he said. "But on average one person infects two or three others.
"You therefore have a very low probability of infecting a large number of people in a stadium

I find it hard to believe he actually said that.

If I stand next to one person, the number of people I will infect is somewhere between 0 and 1. If six stand around me in a crowd, I could infect up to 6, possibly more.

Just because the average person infects 2-3, doesn't mean everyone will infect 2-3, regardless of context.

Am I wrong?

Originally Posted by nomadking

Other EU countries have only very recently introduced various bans, eg Ireland just a matter of hours ago. Are those leaders also KHs for not acting before?

The issue with Ireland is that they are closing all Schools. Children will still come into contact with other children, they’re also less likely to show any symptoms but that doesn’t stop them being carriers, so they’re off school, being looked after by whom, their grandparents, the very age group that are likely to be struck down by the spread.

Also whilst all the children are off school, that’s potentially taking doctors and nurses out of hospitals, to look after their offspring, all at time when their presence is desperately required looking after the people who are seriously ill by this virus.

[downquark1]

Originally Posted by spiderplant

I find it hard to believe he actually said that.

If I stand next to one person, the number of people I will infect is somewhere between 0 and 1. If six stand around me in a crowd, I could infect up to 6, possibly more.

Just because the average person infects 2-3, doesn't mean everyone will infect 2-3, regardless of context.

Am I wrong?

You are correct. This number is called the r factor and it depends on the context of what you are doing. Obviously if you seal yourself in a room you will not infect anyone. This is the whole point of self isolation, to get the r factor below 1.

[adzii_nufc]

Mikel Arteta becomes the latest high profile name to contract the virus. Presumably now isolating the entire Arsenal football squad.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Mick

The issue with Ireland is that they are closing all Schools. Children will still come into contact with other children, they’re also less likely to show any symptoms but that doesn’t stop them being carriers, so they’re off school, being looked after by whom, their grandparents, the very age group that are likely to be struck down by the spread.

Also whilst all the children are off school, that’s potentially taking doctors and nurses out of hospitals, to look after their offspring, all at time when their presence is desperately required looking after the people who are seriously ill by this virus.

Yet the UK Government isn't ruling this out, nor are they ruling out banning large gatherings.

Indeed, it's accepted as inevitable. What makes 8-9 days time the optimum time to do so, when potentially thousands of asymptomatic carriers are out there right now?

[Chad]

Originally Posted by spiderplant

I find it hard to believe he actually said that.

If I stand next to one person, the number of people I will infect is somewhere between 0 and 1. If six stand around me in a crowd, I could infect up to 6, possibly more.

Just because the average person infects 2-3, doesn't mean everyone will infect 2-3, regardless of context.

Am I wrong?

There's everything else that goes into match day that needs to be considered. When I go to a game I travel by train from Edinburgh to Glasgow. The train is always full to the brim by the time it arrives in Glasgow. Then it's off to the pub for a couple of pints. Again the boozer is usually bursting at the seems. At the ground I've got to queue to get in, share toilet facilities with thousands then queue at half time for a pie. Pretty much the same on the way home. All in I've probably been within a metre of hundreds of people within 6 hours. If I was infected coughing and sneezing my way through the day how many people could I realistically infect? Certainly more than a couple.

Originally Posted by jfman

Yet the UK Government isn't ruling this out, nor are they ruling out banning large gatherings.

Indeed, it's accepted as inevitable. What makes 8-9 days time the optimum time to do so, when potentially thousands of asymptomatic carriers are out there right now?

Because we are not yet at the peak spread of this virus yet and that matters, why do some of you not get this, I would say the CMO and his advisors are better placed to know what they’re saying.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Mick

Because we are not yet at the peak spread of this virus yet and that matters, why do some of you not get this, I would say the CMO and his advisors are better placed to know what they’re saying.

Because nobody has adequately explained why the peak matters - indeed by its very nature intervening prevents a "peak" from happening.

I'm unsure why our Chief Medical Officer is deemed more qualified than that of another country. Another statement inadequately explained.

Originally Posted by jfman

Because nobody has adequately explained why the peak matters - indeed by its very nature intervening prevents a "peak" from happening.

I'm unsure why our Chief Medical Officer is deemed more qualified than that of another country. Another statement inadequately explained.

Here’s someone who actually knows what they’re talking about. The relevant bit starts around 14 minutes in.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000g3gh