Coronavirus (OLD)

[denphone]

Originally Posted by jfman

We get that you didn't want a lockdown Old Boy but opening up the schools and shops simply means that millions are put at risk, we cripple the NHS and tens of thousands more die, rendering the work done to date pointless.

Coronavirus is spreading in the southern hemisphere where lockdowns are weak or absent, and in countries where the weather temperature is currently comparable or in excess of a summer in the UK.

Have you got a source for the bit in bold - testing for antibodies in the population done to date hasn't indicated that there's a large number of asymptomatic people and there are question marks over their reliability in any case.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...-be-unreliable

Even further - there is a bigger question mark over whether any immunity exists at all for those who have had the virus.

Sage are concerned about reliability of antibody tests and have cautioned against too much focus on the antibody tests.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...-Report-16.pdf

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

Later in the article, a study said it required 30 minutes at 56C to render the pathogen non-infectious. Singapore is around 32C and the pathogen is definitely "doing its thing" there.

Temperature is not the only reason that [some] viruses die out in the summer months. Apparently its also because in the winter time we all keep ourselves indoors, so it transmits between us quicker than in the summer, when we tend to be outside more, and thus [generally] spread apart more. (Natural distancing).

[Taf]

Increased temperature also desiccates the droplets that carry the virus?

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by jfman

We get that you didn't want a lockdown Old Boy but opening up the schools and shops simply means that millions are put at risk, we cripple the NHS and tens of thousands more die.

That’s what Labour’s Rachel Reeves was asking for this morning on Andrew Marr

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Pierre

That’s what Labour’s Rachel Reeves was asking for this morning on Andrew Marr

I haven't watched Marr however a bad idea is a bad idea regardless of who states it whether it's Old Boy, Rachel Reeves, or anyone else.

The Government plan, which appears to be erring towards the schools not opening fully until at least September in England, is the sensible one.

[nomadking]

Any easing of the current lockdown will just lead to an even bigger ignoring of any new rules. The risk is that groups will gather(especially religious ones) where one person can and has in examples around the world, infect a couple of dozen others at a time.
South Korea

“Patient 31,” as she became known, was a member of a secretive church which Deputy Minister for Health and Welfare Kim Gang-lip said has since linked to 61% of cases. Infections spread beyond the congregation after the funeral of a relative of the church’s founder was held at a nearby hospital, and there were several other smaller clusters around the country.

US

MOUNT VERNON, Wash. — With the coronavirus quickly spreading in Washington state in early March, leaders of the Skagit Valley Chorale debated whether to go ahead with weekly rehearsal.
...
Sixty singers showed up. A greeter offered hand sanitizer at the door, and members refrained from the usual hugs and handshakes.
...
Nearly three weeks later, 45 have been diagnosed with COVID-19 or ill with the symptoms, at least three have been hospitalized, and two are dead.

A very important thing to take away from the US example is this:-

In interviews with the Los Angeles Times, eight people who were at the rehearsal said that nobody there was coughing or sneezing or appeared ill.

How many other examples around the world have involved coughing or sneezing? I've seen no mention. Sneezing isn't listed as a symptom and coughing symptom is a dry cough, not a wet one.

Simply breathing in the air somebody else has just breathed out is the problem. Calmly breathing in and out through the nose is obviously the least problem. Breathing in/out in a more forceable manner from shouting, singing, exercising(eg jogging), laughing, and to a lesser extent simply talking is the problem. There's not a mysterious aura surrounding people, like from wearing too much perfume or after shave.

So my personal advice is to talk, etc in a direction away from everybody or from a greater distance than 2m. At the very least it can't harm to do that.

[pip08456]

The easing of the lockdown has to be lead by the science no matter what any political party thinks.

The science will unemotionally look at the statistics. i.e. number of cases vs number of deaths and what percentage that involves. Yes it's heartless but science cannot let that enter into the equasion.

Consider this, if testing is ramped up and reveals that of the number deaths is say 0.1% of confirmed cases is this acceptable?

The answer becomes a societable problem. Once the media get hold of the figures...

BREAKING: Prime Minister Boris Johnson, returns to Downing Street after recovering from Covid-19 that nearly killed him.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by pip08456

The easing of the lockdown has to be lead by the science no matter what any political party thinks.

The science will unemotionally look at the statistics. i.e. number of cases vs number of deaths and what percentage that involves. Yes it's heartless but science cannot let that enter into the equasion.

Consider this, if testing is ramped up and reveals that of the number deaths is say 0.1% of confirmed cases is this acceptable?

The answer becomes a societable problem. Once the media get hold of the figures...

It'll be far higher than that - 0.1% of the population is 66,000 and excess deaths is already at 40,000. It's not credible that 40 million people have already been infected with the virus given at any one time something like 80% of testing done has been negative.

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by Mick

BREAKING: Prime Minister Boris Johnson, returns to Downing Street after recovering from Covid-19 that nearly killed him.

Did it though? Glad to hear he's coming back.

---------- Post added at 20:00 ---------- Previous post was at 19:59 ----------

Originally Posted by jfman

It'll be far higher than that - 0.1% of the population is 66,000 and excess deaths is already at 40,000. It's not credible that 40 million people have already been infected with the virus given at any one time something like 80% of testing done has been negative.

Merely a scenario as you full well know,

[denphone]

Originally Posted by pip08456

Did it though? Glad to hear he's coming back.,

Whatever ones political allegiance is its good to hear that he has recovered fully from being very seriously ill.

Originally Posted by pip08456

Did it though? Glad to hear he's coming back.
Merely a scenario as you full well know,

Yes it did, being in Intensive care is one caveat to making you aware that you're close to death, fighting for your life, you're not put in there unless the chances of dying are highly probable without significant medical interventions.

Johnson also said himself, there was a moment when being in Intensive care that the chances of survival verses dying, there was one moment where it could have gone either way. So yes, he nearly died.

[jfman]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...pert-interview

Interesting article from one of Germany’s specialists.

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by jfman

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...pert-interview

Interesting article from one of Germany’s specialists.

It certainly is and puts forward a lot of what OB has said.

To achieve herd immunity we need 60-70% of the population to carry antibodies to the virus.

Originally Posted by pip08456

It certainly is and puts forward a lot of what OB has said.

It was in answer to a specific question about how close were we to herd immunity, rather than "should we go for herd immunity?"...

Q: How close we are to achieving herd immunity?

A: To achieve herd immunity we need 60-70% of the population to carry antibodies to the virus. The results of antibody tests suggest that in Europe and the US, in general, we are in the low single digits, but the tests are not reliable – all of them have problems with false positives – and herd immunity is also not the whole story. It assumes complete mixing of the population, but there are reasons – in part to do with the social networks people form – why the whole population may not be available for infection at any given time. Networks shift, and new people are exposed to the virus. Such effects can drive waves of infection. Another factor that could impact herd immunity is whether other coronaviruses – those that cause the common cold, for example – offer protection to this one. We don’t know, but it’s possible.