Israel v Iran conflict

Israel has decided now is the time to act to prevent a country committed to its destruction from acquiring a nuclear bomb. Thus far they seem to have had a good day out, taking out a lot of very senior scientists and ideologues.

What got my attention this afternoon is how Trump, like the pathetic bully he is, is now threatening Iran to make a deal lest things get worse, as if this is somehow anything to do with him.

He’s not even the bully … he’s the weedy boy who stands behind the bully making threats and shouting insults. Pathetic little man.

I wonder what next for Iran though. The regime has been made to look vulnerable, and there are those within the country who would like to see it gone.

[pip08456]

Not unexpected, Isreal allegedly had the green light from the US for the attack.

I’ve no doubt Trump will frame it that way post hoc, but I’m equally certain Israel was going to do this anyway. Trump’s in a bit of a bind now. He needs to look like the tough broker but there is a section of MAGA that really thought he was going to end all wars on day one, and this does not look like that.

[papa smurf]

i wonder how close Iran is in reality from having a nuclear bomb

Originally Posted by papa smurf

i wonder how close Iran is in reality from having a nuclear bomb

I essentially see two paths ahead:

1. Israel completes its objective by dismantling Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and conducts follow-on strikes as needed to prevent reconstruction.

2. Iran rushes the bomb

As of May 2025, Iran had a declared stockpile of 408.6 kg of 60% enriched uranium.

Keep in mind that enriching uranium from natural levels to 60% accounts for roughly 90% of the total energy required to reach weapons-grade.

So if anything substantial survives, or if infrastructure can be relocated, Iran could reach weapons-grade enrichment levels relatively quickly.

https://x.com/frhoffmann1/status/193...56-Kgau3lzowJw

That’s Dr Fabian Hoffman, defence, missile and nuclear strategy specialist at Oslo University.

Take from it what you will but I have seen plenty of people with the expertise to know what they’re on about, saying similar things.

The timing of Israel’s attack adds some credence to it all. Iran has motive and intent and seems to have been close to securing the means. Hoffman’s analysis would also be predictive of Israel not letting up quite yet.

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by Chris

Israel has decided now is the time to act to prevent a country committed to its destruction from acquiring a nuclear bomb. Thus far they seem to have had a good day out, taking out a lot of very senior scientists and ideologues.

What got my attention this afternoon is how Trump, like the pathetic bully he is, is now threatening Iran to make a deal lest things get worse, as if this is somehow anything to do with him.

He’s not even the bully … he’s the weedy boy who stands behind the bully making threats and shouting insults. Pathetic little man.

I wonder what next for Iran though. The regime has been made to look vulnerable, and there are those within the country who would like to see it gone.

That'll be donnie who ripped up the last deal that was widely praised by senior US military Generals and admirals and replaced it with nothing at all.

Iran has been one step away from.acquiring a nuclear bomb since 1948, seriously I saw a headline say that earlier and even if that was bogus and it's just since the 80's progress has been awful slow.

Yes you could say that Israel had used that rationale and it'd be entirely plausible if a charmer like Ali Sumkhani hadn't been amongst the victims, who was the lead negotiator with Trump's team and said last month he'd sign a deal there and then if some sanction relief was included in it, now it'll just look like to many people that Netanyahu is sabotaging negotiations to avoid jail, again.

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by Chris

https://x.com/frhoffmann1/status/193...56-Kgau3lzowJw

That’s Dr Fabian Hoffman, defence, missile and nuclear strategy specialist at Oslo University.

Take from it what you will but I have seen plenty of people with the expertise to know what they’re on about, saying similar things.

The timing of Israel’s attack adds some credence to it all. Iran has motive and intent and seems to have been close to securing the means. Hoffman’s analysis would also be predictive of Israel not letting up quite yet.

i guess we'll find out when the mushroom clouds start rising

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by papa smurf

i wonder how close Iran is in reality from having a nuclear bomb

I don't. Look at the language psychologically. Something like:

UN: Iran has violated its nuclear proliferation obligations and must cease & desist.

IRAN: Just for that, we're gonna double production of enriched Uranium. (Just the excuse Iran wanted).

ISRAEL: Right, sod you. Bang - before you can wipe us out.

As already indicated, this miliary action was always gonna happen. Rather now than when Iran has nuclear weapons.



---------- Post added at 19:10 ---------- Previous post was at 19:05 ----------

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

That'll be donnie who ripped up the last deal that was widely praised by senior US military Generals and admirals and replaced it with nothing at all.

Iran has been one step away from.acquiring a nuclear bomb since 1948, seriously I saw a headline say that earlier and even if that was bogus and it's just since the 80's progress has been awful slow.

Yes you could say that Israel had used that rationale and it'd be entirely plausible if a charmer like Ali Sumkhani hadn't been amongst the victims, who was the lead negotiator with Trump's team and said last month he'd sign a deal there and then if some sanction relief was included in it, now it'll just look like to many people that Netanyahu is sabotaging negotiations to avoid jail, again.

Was the above code for "Israel shouldn't be trying to smash Iran's nuclear threat right now"?

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

I don't. Look at the language psychologically. Something like:

UN: Iran has violated its nuclear proliferation obligations and must cease & desist.

IRAN: Just for that, we're gonna double production of enriched Uranium. (Just the excuse Iran wanted).

ISRAEL: Right, sod you. Bang - before you can wipe us out.

As already indicated, this miliary action was always gonna happen. Rather now than when Iran has nuclear weapons.


---------- Post added at 19:10 ---------- Previous post was at 19:05 ----------


Was the above code for "Israel shouldn't be trying to smash Iran's nuclear threat right now"?

You missed the part where Trump pulled the USA out of JCPOA, giving Iran cover to continue working towards high enrichment and a possible bomb.

Not that that was what Trump intended to achieve; Trump is far too stupid to think strategically. Trump’s sole intention was to trash Obama’s legacy in any way possible, without any consideration of consequences.

These are the consequences.

[Pierre]

Israel is defending itself.

[thenry]

I don't understand this war. Everyday in Mecca, Saudi Arabia they recite the Quran as does the rest of the Muslim world. In those verses are Israel. Whatever your stand point Israel is reality. By wiping out Israel through war means the holy book doesn't hold credibility. It's a story ffs. There is no Quran without Israel. I don't get it.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by thenry

I don't understand this war. Everyday in Mecca, Saudi Arabia they recite the Quran as does the rest of the Muslim world. In those verses are Israel. Whatever your stand point Israel is reality. By wiping out Israel through war means the holy book doesn't hold credibility. It's a story ffs. There is no Quran without Israel. I don't get it.

Surely you do get it. There's Israel full of Jews and Israel, the Muslim concept (political version). It's all political generated as a consequence of cultural differences between the two religions.

Incidentally, there's Muslim (as in Sunni) and Muslim as in Shia. The Quran is separately interpreted by these sects, so far as I can tell. Thus the enemy of my enemy (Saudi vs Iran) is my friend (says Israel) sort of thing.

And that's ignoring the amount of Quran being recited in the UK (and on the boats crossing the channel).

[RichardCoulter]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

Surely you do get it. There's Israel full of Jews and Israel, the Muslim concept (political version). It's all political generated as a consequence of cultural differences between the two religions.

Incidentally, there's Muslim (as in Sunni) and Muslim as in Shia. The Quran is separately interpreted by these sects, so far as I can tell. Thus the enemy of my enemy (Saudi vs Iran) is my friend (says Israel) sort of thing.

And that's ignoring the amount of Quran being recited in the UK (and on the boats crossing the channel).

Let's hope that the different factions don't start attacking each other on British soil.

[noel43]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Israel is defending itself.

No isreal is attacking who it wants because usa backs it.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by noel43

No israel is attacking who it wants because usa backs it.

Here we go. Israel are the baddies along with the USA.

Surely the fact that Iran has hundreds of ballistic missiles ready to use tells you that they are the baddies, determined to destroy Israel.

And that on top of the UN report that Iran has broken its agreement not to produce weapons grade Uranium - Iran lying through its teeth that it'snot true. That would be the Iran that's vowed to destroy Israel.

And don't forget October 7th 2024.