VOD : Will we see linear channel numbers decrease in the future ?

[muppetman11]

Going forward do you think we'll see the amount of linear channels decrease bit by bit ?

I can see a time when broadcasters like the BBC , Sky , ITV , C4 etc have only a few entertainment channels each.

For instance the BBC could just operate with BBC 1 & 2 with all its best shows spread across the two plus BBC News with a red prompt to its Portal (IPlayer) with full series , catch up , back catalogue etc.

I understand one issue would be ad revenue especially for the likes of ITV.

[alwaysabear]

I think it is inevitable as the way we consume entertainment changes. However, the timing of this change is difficult to predict as we are still seeing new linear channels launching.

[Jong1]

It's complicated because there is all that linear capacity and as interest wanes (and technology advances) you can expect costs of owning a channel to fall. So, my best bet (hardly rocket science, more a continuation of what we are seeing already!) is:

- steadily dropping linear viewing
- fewer quality channels and more and more cheap dross

It will be a long time before the linear network, at least on Virgin and Sky actually starts to shut down. There is a chance Freeview might go into reverse soonest, mainly due to demands for more, good wireless/mobile spectrum.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by muppetman11

Going forward do you think we'll see the amount of linear channels decrease bit by bit ?

I can see a time when broadcasters like the BBC , Sky , ITV , C4 etc have only a few entertainment channels each.

For instance the BBC could just operate with BBC 1 & 2 with all its best shows spread across the two plus BBC News with a red prompt to its Portal (IPlayer) with full series , catch up , back catalogue etc.

I understand one issue would be ad revenue especially for the likes of ITV.

This is bound to happen if the number of people watching broadcast TV continues to decline. Less advertising revenue (which is based on audience share) means less money to spend means less channels.

The BBC could still broadcast in this way if they wanted to, but the likely fate of BBC3 is an indicator that maybe even the BBC will follow this trend towards on demand and streaming.

[spiderplant]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Less advertising revenue (which is based on audience share) means less money to spend means less channels.

But advertising revenue is growing...

http://mediatel.co.uk/newsline/2015/...s-5bn-in-2014/

[RichardCoulter]

Viacom seem to think that linear TV is still dominant:

Http://www.rapidtvnews.com/201503143...#axzz3UfVBQYqc

[denphone]

And it will be here for many decades to come despite what some posters might think.

[muppetman11]

Originally Posted by denphone

And it will be here for many decades to come despite what some posters might think.

I dare say it will however I'm not sure we'll have the same numbers of channels however that's just my opinion.

[denphone]

Well its all about opinions MM and yours are well worth listening too.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by spiderplant

But advertising revenue is growing...

http://mediatel.co.uk/newsline/2015/...s-5bn-in-2014/

I know, spiderplant and there is no immediate threat to linear TV channels. I have been looking ahead at the longer term and the impact that changes to viewer choices will make.

The increase in revenue derives from the increased number of commercial channels as well as other sources such as VOD, product placement, etc as the article says.

However, I have been concentrating on the elephant in the room - the obvious conclusion that over time, fewer people will be watching linear TV. I know that this is not a problem for the present, but I believe it will be a major difficulty for the future. Unless ways are found to compensate broadcasters for this shift of viewing activity, the future does not look good for linear TV.

---------- Post added at 12:20 ---------- Previous post was at 12:15 ----------

Originally Posted by RichardCoulter

Viacom seem to think that linear TV is still dominant:

Http://www.rapidtvnews.com/201503143...#axzz3UfVBQYqc

I don't dispute that, Richard. But what about the future?

Even the article admits: Moreover more access to content was seen to be basically redefining how viewers engage with television. The majority of viewers (51%) preferred to be able to watch TV when they wanted to rather than where or how. In other words, VIMM suggested, convenience is watching a show whenever viewers decide they want to watch it.

This trend will continue to the point where broadcast TV has to come to terms with this new reality.