The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5

So the election bandwagon rolls on and we’re in to week 5 of the campaign.

As previously, please continue election-related discussion here, vote again in our fresh poll, and let’s see how the campaign is shaping voting intentions in the fictional constituency of Cable Forum Central.

For reference, weeks 1-4 polls are here:

Week 1: https://www.cableforum.uk/board/show...php?t=33712705

Week 2: https://www.cableforum.uk/board/show...php?t=33712720

Week 3: https://www.cableforum.uk/board/show...php?t=33712736

Week 4: https://www.cableforum.uk/board/show...php?t=33712754

Some interesting data that adds intrigue to the rapidly-growing election betting scandal. B*tfair is unusually transparent about how much money is being bet on any particular thing. It’s possible to see that throughout this year there has been a constant, but small, stream of bets on a July election. But suddenly, the day before the election was called, there’s a truly massive increase in the amount of money laid on the election being in July.

Graphs are viewable in this thread on Xitter: https://x.com/jimwaterson/status/180...56-Kgau3lzowJw

I know at least one Tory has called his bet an ‘error of judgment’. Obvs we don’t know if he knew the date and placed a bet in a manner that might have been criminal. But judging by these numbers, this is not a coincidence. Someone, or several someones, knew exactly when the election was going to be, and thought they could cash in by betting on the date before it went public.

[peanut]

What happens if/when Sunak loses the election and his seat. Can he still be the party leader?

Originally Posted by peanut

What happens if/when Sunak loses the election and his seat. Can he still be the party leader?

You can legally lead the party without being an MP. The Green co-leader Carla Denyer is a Bristol city councillor but their only MP is Caroline Lucas. But the Greens’ party constitution permits that. Whether the Tory party constitution permits it is another matter (and I don’t know the answer).

If the Tories are the second largest party, and Sunak is not elected, he can’t be leader of the opposition because that is an appointment specific to the House of Commons. Even if Sunak did not immediately resign as leader after losing his seat the Tories would have to nominate someone to be leader of the opposition by the time the Commons sat for the first time.

(If the Tories won the election but Sunak lost his seat he could continue to be Prime Minister until another one was chosen, because the PM does not by law have to be a member of either House, although it would be utterly extraordinary for him not to be … they would either have to immediately make him a Lord so he could serve in the interim, or else he would immediately resign and the next most senior MP would have to step in, probably promising to be an interim figure while a leadership election was held. But none of tha’s going to happen. )

[peanut]

Thanks for that, that's exactly what I've been looking for. I just couldn't find the right answer anywhere.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Chris

Some interesting data that adds intrigue to the rapidly-growing election betting scandal. B*tfair is unusually transparent about how much money is being bet on any particular thing. It’s possible to see that throughout this year there has been a constant, but small, stream of bets on a July election. But suddenly, the day before the election was called, there’s a truly massive increase in the amount of money laid on the election being in July.

Graphs are viewable in this thread on Xitter: https://x.com/jimwaterson/status/180...56-Kgau3lzowJw

I know at least one Tory has called his bet an ‘error of judgment’. Obvs we don’t know if he knew the date and placed a bet in a manner that might have been criminal. But judging by these numbers, this is not a coincidence. Someone, or several someones, knew exactly when the election was going to be, and thought they could cash in by betting on the date before it went public.

It just reinforces the inference that our MPs are not very bright.

[Mr K]

"It was an error of judgement officer"
Cobblers, it was a criminal act. Stick the cuffs on and lock them up.

[1andrew1]

I see that Sunak said on Question Time that he was glad he called the election when he did. Makes me wonder if he had a bet on the date as well, for there seemed to be little other good reason for calling it when he did.

---------- Post added at 22:32 ---------- Previous post was at 22:31 ----------

Originally Posted by Pierre

It just reinforces the inference that our MPs are not very bright.

BoJo purged the Conservative Party of a lot of talent so you're closer to the truth than you might think.

Starmer was nervous, understandably given it’s currently his to lose. And I think he missed an opportunity to be ‘real’ when pressed about Corbyn. He could have owned the egg on his face as a result of party politics being a team sport. The only alternative was to sound evasive, and unfortunately that’s the path he picked.

Still … Rishi Sunak while (I think) attempting to sound confident and willing to stand by his record, just sounded cross and shouty. IIRC he was the only one who got laughed at at any stage and when the credits rolled he was definitely getting heckled, though it wasn’t possible to hear what was said.

Davey and Swinney had to be there but were never more than a warm up act for the only viable choices in the room. I was pleasantly surprised at how useful and relevant the questions to Swinney were, given that the audience was from in and around York.

[RichardCoulter]

Originally Posted by Chris

Starmer was nervous, understandably given it’s currently his to lose. And I think he missed an opportunity to be ‘real’ when pressed about Corbyn. He could have owned the egg on his face as a result of party politics being a team sport. The only alternative was to sound evasive, and unfortunately that’s the path he picked.

Still … Rishi Sunak while (I think) attempting to sound confident and willing to stand by his record, just sounded cross and shouty. IIRC he was the only one who got laughed at at any stage and when the credits rolled he was definitely getting heckled, though it wasn’t possible to hear what was said.

Davey and Swinney had to be there but were never more than a warm up act for the only viable choices in the room. I was pleasantly surprised at how useful and relevant the questions to Swinney were, given that the audience was from in and around York.

He said that he was very annoyed at those who bet on the date of the election. I bet he is as, even in the dying days of his government, some individuals couldn't resist a final bit of greedy self serving behaviour.

---------- Post added at 00:19 ---------- Previous post was at 00:15 ----------

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

I see that Sunak said on Question Time that he was glad he called the election when he did. Makes me wonder if he had a bet on the date as well, for there seemed to be little other good reason for calling it when he did.

---------- Post added at 22:32 ---------- Previous post was at 22:31 ----------


BoJo purged the Conservative Party of a lot of talent so you're closer to the truth than you might think.

I can't understand why he called the election so soon. You'd think that he'd have hung on for as long as possible in the vague hope that things improved.

Maybe he's had enough? He doesn't need the money, will get a nice fat ex prime ministerial pension for doing nothing and will could earn a lot with after dinner speaking roles.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by RichardCoulter

I can't understand why he called the election so soon. You'd think that he'd have hung on for as long as possible in the vague hope that things improved.

Maybe he's had enough? He doesn't need the money, will get a nice fat ex prime ministerial pension for doing nothing and will could earn a lot with after dinner speaking roles.

Hence, the theory he had a flutter himself. Seriously, he probably realised things won't get better, so why hang on?

He's no Thatcher, Johnson or Blair on the speaking circuit so don't think he will do much on that front.

[peanut]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Hence, the theory he had a flutter himself. Seriously, he probably realised things won't get better, so why hang on?

He's no Thatcher, Johnson or Blair on the speaking circuit so don't think he will do much on that front.

It's not like he needs to do any of that really anyway. I think he's hoping to lose his seat so he'll bugger off to the US.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by peanut

It's not like he needs to do any of that really anyway. I think he's hoping to lose his seat so he'll bugger off to the US.

Indeed.

The flaw is assuming these people have their shouts in the trough because of a sense of public duty.

Once he is a "former PM" he can make a lot more money for a lot less effort doing something else. Or in his case likely nothing else since his wealth probably grows far more than a PM salary all by itself.

The Conservative campaign hits new depths…

https://x.com/conservatives/status/1...Fx9lsEXWlOa1jg

[denphone]

And even more new depths here.

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