High-definition Video On Demand -- a Sky (Plus) killer?

[Tristan]

Something I genuinely hadn't thought of till I saw a brief mention of it on a site discussing the new Telewest PVR.

There is an incredible amount of bickering taking place at the moment amongst European broadcasters regarding high-definition TV. With sales of plasma and LCD screens on the increase, HDTV is clearly the future, but nobody can quite agree on how to broadcast it (720p? 1080i? MPEG2? MPEG4? which MPEG4, etc...)

Both Sky and the BBC have said they want to launch HD services in 2006, but have been very vague on the details of how they will do this. And even if they do launch, it will mean Sky's premium userbase will have to throw away their expensive Sky Plus boxes in favour of a new "Sky Plus HD" variety -- how many will be willing to do this just to be able to get the BBC channels and Sky Movies in HD?

Step forward Telewest (and, in a merged company, NTL too). With the VOD infrastructure, they have a unique opportunity to be first to market broadcasting HDTV -- and do it well. They don't need to wait for european standards to be agreed, as HD programming will be coming from their own servers. When the standards are agreed, they can update their software to accept it, or just do their own thing -- these are the advantages of having a private network, and not having to support any future FTA HD channels, as Sky will.

If NTL/Telewest can get the combination of VOD and an HD PVR right, then for the first time since the launch of Sky Digital, cable will be in the lead in the pay-TV race. The high-end will go for it because they will want to watch FilmFlex movies in HD (because HD-DVDs aren't available yet), and because the BBC (who are already making programmes in HD for the US and Australia) will be happy to put their HD content on the servers as well as the standard stuff. If the cablecos can negotiate rights deals with more channels and distributers, then HD-VOD will become the new TV killer app -- it's all very well being able to pause and rewind Desperate Housewives on your Sky Plus box, but why put up with a crappy E4 picture when you can pause it in HDTV quality? And where the high end go, the masses inevitably follow -- two years ago only geeks knew what an iPod was or what Sky Plus did, whereas now even my mum wants to listen to MP3s on the move.

The really promising part is that all the technology is already tried and tested in the USA, where it has lead to a resurgence in popularity of cable, even where there are HD broadcasts via satellite. If cable can establish a foot-hold in the market, things could look very different two years from now.

Many people have criticised NTL for not revealing any PVR plans. In my opinion, they are somewhat vindicated. It has been clear for donkey's years that NTL and Telewest will merge, and it's now looking increasinly likely it will happen this year. I doubt there was ever a meeting between Duffy and his counterpart at Telewest to decide who would do R&D on what, but NTL holding back on the PVR front means that (given that TW have opted for the same VOD system) a merged company would be able to press ahead without having to worry about the Langley/Bromley incompatibilities that have plagued NTL for years.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that for the first time in a long long time, the future is bright for cable TV. Years of promise might be on the verge of actually paying off.

Let's just hope it happens.

very true, we are switching over to cable in the USA soon.

the choice of cable HD and cable PVR was a big factor

[nn012]

hmm...interesting-http://www.techdigest.tv/2005/05/telewest_to_lau.html

[simpsonsFAN]

Originally Posted by Tristan

Something I genuinely hadn't thought of till I saw a brief mention of it on a site discussing the new Telewest PVR.

Only seen a brief mention of the new telewest PVR eh?

Full details here: http://informitv.com/articles/2005/0...stconfirmspvr/
CAD picture here: http://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/13.jpg

HDTV: Component Analogue, HDMI
Cool tricks: 3 tuners (so you can record 3 channels at the same time!), Optical Digital Audio (for DD5.1, DTS, etc), Two video decoders & Dual scart (to allow for archiving? drive two tv's?), built-in DOCSIS cable modem and a ethernet port.
Performance: 64Mb RAM, 8Mb flash memory, 128Kb non-volatile storage and a 500MIPs processor, 160GB hard drive (80hours SD record time).

Pretty neat little box I think you will agree!
-Chris

[jtwn]

Great post Tristan. What i wonder though is, with ntl's policy of keeping ownership of all equipment, when they come to give out pvrs, surely they are going to make people pay for them, with the costs the boxes will incurr - surely more so than the samsungs.

If they do charge a 'rental' for the box, within time, they are going to break even on the cost, and begin to profit - and you are going to pay more...how do peeps think it will work out..give both options of buying or renting the PVR?

[invisibleboy]

would make sense surely just to sell them as sky do, i for one would be happy to buy one as its the one reason i would prefer to have sky rather than cable maybe we would also get the digital sound output as well.

i do like the sound of the telewest ones with the three tuners sounds very handy

[ian@huth]

Originally Posted by invisibleboy

would make sense surely just to sell them as sky do, i for one would be happy to buy one as its the one reason i would prefer to have sky rather than cable maybe we would also get the digital sound output as well.

i do like the sound of the telewest ones with the three tuners sounds very handy

How many people are going to be able to justify the cost of buying a cable HDPVR and and a HD TV which can only be used to full effect on a limited number of channels / programmes? A lot of people who want the latest and best have probably already invested in Sky+ and wouldn't see much of an improvement for that high capital outlay. They would probably be inclined to sit back for a while to see how the situation pans out and what Sky do to remain competitive. Equipment costs will only come down significantly when demand is huge which I can't see being the case for some time.

[bdav]

I would love HD - I dont know if its a c*** line doubler in my FEB, or just poor compression on NTLs end, but the cable picture ain't nice.

I assume, if they did launch HDTV, the quality would be comparable to a DVD player connected using prog. scan/component?

[SMHarman]

Originally Posted by jtwn

Great post Tristan. What i wonder though is, with ntl's policy of keeping ownership of all equipment, when they come to give out pvrs, surely they are going to make people pay for them, with the costs the boxes will incurr - surely more so than the samsungs.

If they do charge a 'rental' for the box, within time, they are going to break even on the cost, and begin to profit - and you are going to pay more...how do peeps think it will work out..give both options of buying or renting the PVR?

The US model has rolled out PVR with boxes still owned by the cable co, you pay a premium for the box over a standard box.

[bdav]

Originally Posted by SMHarman

The US model has rolled out PVR with boxes still owned by the cable co, you pay a premium for the box over a standard box.

How much is the US Premium?

I suppose, if you've shelled out 3 grand for the shiny plasma screen, an extra few quid a month to run it at (hopefully) full res isnt to much.

[Tristan]

Originally Posted by jtwn

Great post Tristan. What i wonder though is, with ntl's policy of keeping ownership of all equipment, when they come to give out pvrs, surely they are going to make people pay for them, with the costs the boxes will incurr - surely more so than the samsungs.

If they do charge a 'rental' for the box, within time, they are going to break even on the cost, and begin to profit - and you are going to pay more...how do peeps think it will work out..give both options of buying or renting the PVR?

I would be amazed if they sell the boxes rather than renting them -- the latter has always been the standard model with cable. There will almost certainly be a monthly fee to pay for the box -- I wouldn't be surprised if it was £10pm, the same as Sky Plus -- plus a hefty installation fee to try and claw back some of the initial cost. There might also be a requirement to be on the top TV package (i.e. Family on NTL, Supreme on Telewest), but I'd imagine that most people going for a PVR would be on the top package anyway, so it would be no big deal.

Currently with Sky Plus, there is a large installation fee combined with a £10pm fee for the PVR features. This charge is waived if both the full Sky Sports and Sky Movies are taken. After 12 months, the box becomes yours (as does the cost of any repairs), but if you stop paying the extra £10 (or subscribing to all Sports and Movies) you lose all the PVR features, and are left with just a standard Sky digibox.

Therefore there are only two real differences between the outline above and what is currently done for Sky Plus. The first is that after 12 months, ownership and responsibility for maintenance of the box changes. This is exactly the same situation as with "standard" digital services on cable and satellite, and so will not be a major issue. The second is that Sky waive the PVR charge if you take Sky Sports and Sky Movies. As the cablecos make no money on the Sky packages, there is no incentive for them to offer the same deal. (Indeed, it's yet more evidence of Sky using there broadcasting power to try and buy platform market share -- something which the regulator should stamp down on hard -- but that's another story.) What would be very interesting is if and when VOD subscription packages are launched, as was mooted a couple of years ago.

And just to add a bit more into the mix, all the above assumes that the Telewest PVR and Sky Plus are equal. This is not the case -- the cable version is more in line with what a future HD-enabled Sky Plus box would look like. Such a box would naturally cost Sky more, and Sky Plus users would expect to pay a further premium for its facilities.

It's all still open!!

[Bob]

Originally Posted by Tristan

What would be very interesting is if and when VOD subscription packages are launched, as was mooted a couple of years ago.

This is something I considered as a possible option for NTL and Telewest - although those packages are probably some way off

And just to add a bit more into the mix, all the above assumes that the Telewest PVR and Sky Plus are equal. This is not the case -- the cable version is more in line with what a future HD-enabled Sky Plus box would look like. Such a box would naturally cost Sky more, and Sky Plus users would expect to pay a further premium for its facilities.

It's all still open!!

This is something that is putting me off Sky+. I tried it the other day in my local Comet and I have to say that its impressive. However, I'm not overly keen on buying the box outright at the moment simple because it will be obselete next year when Sky launch their HD service. So imagine forking out £100 for a Sky+ box or a 160GB one at a couple of hundred. I wouldn't be too happy if Sky then launched a range of new HD-enabled PVRs and expected me to pay for the newer model.

I would hope that Sky have already thought of this and as an incentive to move to their new HDTV Sky+ box, they would give you money off a new box for trading in an older Sky+ box without the HDTV capabilities.

I am interested to see how both Telewest and NTL go about this

[moffmeister]

There is a reason you pay an extra tenner pm for Sky+, you have another satellite feed, so they charge you for it.

[bdav]

Originally Posted by moffmeister

There is a reason you pay an extra tenner pm for Sky+, you have another satellite feed, so they charge you for it.

Its not another satelite feed as such. Its just another set of the same channels. Its a bit of a rip, seeing as its (pounds)10 for another completly new viewing card to replicate the channels in another box.

[Richardr]

Originally Posted by bdav

I assume, if they did launch HDTV, the quality would be comparable to a DVD player connected using prog. scan/component?

It should be a lot better than a current DVD picture.