"Busy Tories" skew opinion polls

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2...wrong-results/

Pollsters often struggle to predict a Tory majority in referendums and elections because Conservative voters are busier and far more difficult to get hold of, eminent political scientist John Curtice has said.

Prof Curtice, whose exit polls correctly predicted the 2015 general election when others had failed, admitted that Labour voters were more likely to be at home - rather than out at work or undertaking social engagements - when samplers phoned or called round.

So there you have it. Tories are busier and more sociable, hence harder to catch at home. Labour voters, on the other hand ...

[Osem]

Labour voters? Well I'd imagine they're ashamed to go out after their succession of dodgy leaders culminating in what must be the worst of all, Corbyn and McDonnell.

Personally I think the British public as a whole have decided to have some fun with nosy people with clipboards.

[Rexz]

So these are the educated professionals that we are supposed to listen to? What a load of BS. Seems to me more like polling companies trying to justify how completely wrong they got it so they can keep their business for next time around.

Originally Posted by Rexz

So these are the educated professionals that we are supposed to listen to? What a load of BS. Seems to me more like polling companies trying to justify how completely wrong they got it so they can keep their business for next time around.

Part of the reasons they're professions is that they try to see what they got wrong and how to improve in future. Professionals don't have the luxury of being as infallible as those who aren't experts.

Originally Posted by Rexz

So these are the educated professionals that we are supposed to listen to? What a load of BS. Seems to me more like polling companies trying to justify how completely wrong they got it so they can keep their business for next time around.

On the contrary, this comes from Prof John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, not a commercial polling organisation with a reputation to defend. It was his exit poll that correctly called the 2015 general election in the face of disbelief from every other pundit lined up on every election night special, and every opinion poll conducted prior to the election.

Originally Posted by Chris

On the contrary, this comes from Prof John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, not a commercial polling organisation with a reputation to defend. It was his exit poll that correctly called the 2015 general election in the face of disbelief from every other pundit lined up on every election night special, and every opinion poll conducted prior to the election.

He is also the head of the British Polling Council to which those polling organisations belong.

Exit polls are more reliable as they don't have to filter for likely voters, they're asking for how someone voted rather than how they will vote and they can narrow it down to constituency level rather than national vote share (which the exit poll doesn't do). The point behind don't be too harsh on the commercial pollsters because of the Exit poll.

[Ramrod]

Originally Posted by Chris

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2...wrong-results/



So there you have it. Tories are busier and more sociable, hence harder to catch at home. Labour voters, on the other hand ...

In other words tory voters are more likely to have a job and be at work whilst labour voters are more likely to be at home on job seekers allowance

[heero_yuy]

Originally Posted by Ramrod

In other words tory voters are more likely to have a job and be at work whilst labour voters are more likely to be at home on job seekers allowance

QED.

[Ramrod]

It pretty much mirrors what we know about labour and tory MPs in general. Ex labour MPs tend to go and work for charities and the public sector whilst ex tories go back to private sector jobs.

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by Chris

On the contrary, this comes from Prof John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, not a commercial polling organisation with a reputation to defend. It was his exit poll that correctly called the 2015 general election in the face of disbelief from every other pundit lined up on every election night special, and every opinion poll conducted prior to the election.

Exit polls are nearly always right on account of they only count actual voters just after they've voted. Prof. Curtice is no great Mystic Meg.

Being a Tory is embarrassing , always has been for anyone with a shred of decency . Its also likely a lot of the Tories are locked away in their secure accommodation, or too busy posting prattle on forums

Personally I always opt out of marketing/phone calls/door knockers/surveys, and don't respond (nicely) to people shoving their clipboard in my face in the street. So that's another demographic they miss out on. Pollsters are now irrelevant esp. after the US election, they are just trying to justify their continued existence.

Originally Posted by Mr K

Tories are locked away in their secure accommodation, or too busy posting prattle on forums
.

HUH never had you pegged for a tory ,oh well live and learn

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by Ramrod

It pretty much mirrors what we know about labour and tory MPs in general. Ex labour MPs tend to go and work for charities and the public sector whilst ex tories go back to private sector jobs.

Go back to

Wonder if the reason they go to the private sector is to get the pay of for all their years of lobbying, one of Trump's policies iirc was to stop all that kind of stuff, it'd get my vote

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by martyh

HUH never had you pegged for a tory ,oh well live and learn

yes, have to admit I've never voted Tory (sorry if that's a shock and automatically puts me into the 'not we' section of CF )

But then again I've never voted Labour. Just aswell I refuse to talk to pollsters, the poor sods would be further confused.

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

Go back to

Wonder if the reason they go to the private sector is to get the pay of for all their years of lobbying, one of Trump's policies iirc was to stop all that kind of stuff, it'd get my vote

---------- Post added at 09:32 ---------- Previous post was at 09:31 ----------

I'm wondering what it is about me that I never get asked by anyone.