Russia has invaded Ukraine

https://mickryan.substack.com/p/losi...m_medium=email

Losing in Every Dimension

An Assessment of Russia's Strategic Position in 2026, (Part 1)

… Vladimir Putin is losing — not in one or two dimensions of the conflict, but in every dimension by which one might honestly measure strategic progress — military, cognitive, moral, industrial, and economic. His only viable claim to advantage at present is the disposition of the American president.

… Now, for the first time since the invasion began, Russia is losing more troops than it is mobilising. Since the start of 2026, according to Ukrainian General Staff estimates, Russian forces lost over 160,000 personnel killed or seriously wounded. March 2026 alone produced 35,000 Russian casualties — a single-month record for the entire conflict. The Kremlin had targeted daily recruitment of between 1,100 and 1,150 personnel; the actual figure has fallen to approximately 940. For four consecutive months from December 2025, Russia’s losses have exceeded its intake.

The cost of territorial gain has also risen sharply. According to figures from Russia Matters and the Ukrainian General Staff, Russia suffered 200 casualties for each square mile taken in 2025. But, in the first five months of 2026 with a net gain of 17 square miles, it suffered over 9600 casualties for each. In the past three months, the capture of territory has moved in Ukraine’s favour.

Russia’s spring offensive against the Fortress Belt opened in mid-March with large, armoured column attacks and produced catastrophic losses in its opening days, with the Institute for the Study of War assessing that the seizure of the Belt in 2026 is unlikely. Russia has been forced to redeploy elite Airborne and naval infantry units southward to respond to Ukrainian counterattacks — cannibalising its offensive timetable to plug defensive holes. Putin’s “meat grinder” is grinding through Russian men faster than Russia can produce them without much in the way of results on the battlefield.

[Carth]

The whole thing has now descended into something akin to kids throwing bricks at each other over a wall, each side claiming massive victories whilst maintaining their innocence.

To be honest, I've lost interest in the 'war' . . . not only because we keep throwing money at them to buy more bricks.

Originally Posted by Carth

The whole thing has now descended into something akin to kids throwing bricks at each other over a wall, each side claiming massive victories whilst maintaining their innocence.

To be honest, I've lost interest in the 'war' . . . not only because we keep throwing money at them to buy more bricks.

Thanks for that, Lieutenant General (HM Armchair Regiment).

Meanwhile in the real world, the reason Russia’s assaults are flagging, as much as the drone slaughter on the frontlines, is the as-yet not widely reported attacks Ukraine has been making on Russia’s deep rear for the past several weeks. This is largely unreported because non-specialist news correspondents are obsessed with the movements of front lines, and these aren’t moving very much in either direction.

But Crimea is running out of fuel, and fresh water; the Kerch Bridge is too at-risk to use, the ferry route is under constant threat of bombardment, and lorries on the so-called ‘land bridge’ route along the occupied southeast coast of Ukraine are being taken out daily by long-range Ukrainian drones in what Americans might call ‘Turkey shoot’.

Just as nobody listened to the online analysts who pointed out that the 40-mile armoured column aimed at Kyiv in 2022 was a sign of Russian weakness, not strength, until it ground to a halt and started getting blown up, so nobody is as yet taking much notice of the destruction of Russian logistics way behind the front lines.

[Carth]

War over by the weekend then?

Nope, didn't think so, it's gonna drag on a fair while yet

[thenry]

If only allies pulled out of Ukraine

Originally Posted by Carth

War over by the weekend then?

Nope, didn't think so, it's gonna drag on a fair while yet

It is. I’m curious why you’d assume it ending at the weekend would be better, though, given what we know Russians do to people whose land they occupy? It’s so easy to sit in a chair a thousand miles away and chant ‘no more war’, but what if you’re a civilian who needs the war to go on to have any chance of being free again?

Ukraine has been invaded, its people are being abused. Both-sidesing the conflict helps nobody but Putin.

[Carth]

The war (and that stupidity in Iran) needs to end, and soon. There's already been too much death & destruction caused by the willy waving.

That's me, the Armchair General, stating an opinion, nothing more

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by Carth

The war (and that stupidity in Iran) needs to end, and soon. There's already been too much death & destruction caused by the willy waving.

That's me, the Armchair General, stating an opinion, nothing more

just wondering do you out rank General bluster of the fourth highland key tapper regiment

[Anonymouse]

It gets worse. New Scientist reports there are autonomous drones on the loose - AI with no oversight.

Skynet is looking more and more likely...

Originally Posted by Anonymouse

It gets worse. New Scientist reports there are autonomous drones on the loose - AI with no oversight.

Skynet is looking more and more likely...

They were tested 2 years ago, but never deployed, because it’s against Ukraine’s rules (at the present) - current autonomous drones have human oversight

Crimea is under effective seige now, because the Kerch Strait Bridge is all but unusable and the land corridor, the coastal road through the occupied territories, is patrolled by autonomous truck-hunting drones. Yes, they require human permission to actually go in for a kill but we have arrived at the point where some kid miles from the front is clicking a dialogue box asking Blow up lorry? OK/Cancel.

This is only very surprising to those who prefer to think the Ukraine war has more or less gone away, except for every 3 months when the BBC dispatches someone to file weary reportage from some crater near the front where the troops haven’t been rotated out in months. The narrative that Russian victory is inevitable is surprisingly persistent, especially in the face of this week’s multiple Ukrainian strategic attacks on Moscow.

[thenry]

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky says he has returned Poland's highest honour after his Polish counterpart Karol Nawrocki said he was stripping him of the award.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2lye7xje9yo

Soon to be Saint Zelensky

[1andrew1]

Interesting development with no US components used. Plus, one of the companies, MGI, is new to the defence sector. It uses advanced composite materials pioneered in Formula 1 racing cars to make its Tiger Shark missile.

UK unveils prototype missiles for Ukraine with no US components

Low-cost, long-range weapons could be deployed as soon as this year in war against Russia

The British government has unveiled three prototype long-range strike missiles designed for use by Ukraine’s military in its war against Russia, a step forward in low-cost weapons that crucially avoid US components.

The Ministry of Defence said the systems — developed by MBDA UK, MGI Engineering and Rotron Aerospace, which are all based in the UK — had progressed to successful trials that took place in the spring.

After further tests this year, one or more of the missiles — whose development is known as “Project Brakestop” — was expected to be in Kyiv’s hands by the end of 2026, one government official said.

The weapons would be made without any US components, in line with MoD requirements and a push to avoid interference from Washington over their export and use, according to the companies.

The make-up of the missiles was designed “to allow as much sovereign UK control over gifting capabilities to Ukraine”, another official said.

The development of the missiles began in November 2024, after the US held up delivery of long-range missiles such as the US Atacms and the UK Storm Shadow and authorisation for them to be fired deep into Russian territory amid fears of escalation with Moscow.

https://www.ft.com/content/78d880ee-...syn-25a6b1a6=1

[Sephiroth]

Good - removing the UK from the USA’s yoke (whilst keeping us out of Brussels’ yoke!).

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

Good - removing the UK from the USA’s yoke (whilst keeping us out of Brussels’ yoke!).

MBDA is French-headquartered and owned by BAE Systems (UK), Leonardo (Italian Government) and Airbus (French, Spanish and German governments plus private investors).