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Originally Posted by Pierre
We’re not going from a standing start. 2.5M have already tested positive.
Statistical analysis suggest up 19M may have had it. (That was back in May, the accuracy of the method used has been questioned but still, the number will be a large number)
https://fullfact.org/health/19m-coronavirus-manchester/
So it is quite reasonable to suggest around 20M, have had it.
So we would be starting from 30% of the population having immunity through infection ( not even taking into account those already immune)
70% would be 46M, so 26M at a 1M = 26 weeks, all done by June with a fair wind behind us. |
Agreed, but that’s not "within weeks"...
Looking at the ONS numbers from late last month, they estimate
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645,800 people (95% credible interval: 610,100 to 683,100) within the community population in England had the coronavirus (COVID-19), equating to around 1 in 85 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 90 to 1 in 80).
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https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...24december2020
Those figures seem low to me - is that just that week?
Re-reading it, yes, it is.
Statista puts the cumulative total at 2.3 million.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ses-in-the-uk/