Thread: Coronavirus
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Old 02-01-2021, 13:21   #2313
jfman
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre View Post
We’re not going from a standing start. 2.5M have already tested positive.

Statistical analysis suggest up 19M may have had it. (That was back in May, the accuracy of the method used has been questioned but still, the number will be a large number)

https://fullfact.org/health/19m-coronavirus-manchester/

So it is quite reasonable to suggest around 20M, have had it.

So we would be starting from 30% of the population having immunity through infection ( not even taking into account those already immune)

70% would be 46M, so 26M at a 1M = 26 weeks, all done by June with a fair wind behind us.
While the analysis is sound there’s other factors - there will be overlap between the “already infected” and vaccinated groups whether the former is as high as 20m or not. If immunity starts to dwindle after a year (again this is only a guess) a significant proportion of the already infected from the first wave will lose immunity in the next 26 weeks. If the vast majority are getting a vaccine only proven to be 62% effective this pushes the “all done” date back further.
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