Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien
I think May should call her bluff. Rejecting the referendum is probably what Sturgeon wants as I imagine she would rather the case for independence be better than it is now before calling for the vote. She would rather wait and have Westminster vetoing the referendum as a tool to stir up further resentment of the UK Government.
That said it's still going to be close IMO. Polls have it at 50/50 roughly, the Nationalists will likely be far more motivated and united than the Unionists and the prospect of a Conservative Government until 2025/2030 will be a useful campaigning tool. The UK government will be focused on Brexit, Labour are nowhere and nor are the liberals. Unionism is weak at the moment.
If May consents and I had to put money on it, I would say they're going Independent. But if she doesn't I think the chances only increase, just at a later date.
If the EU really wanted to play hardball allowing Scotland to maintain the UK's EU membership would be a killer. They've said they won't and Spain are likely to object but imagine if they did.
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Darn right she'd rather wait, it'd be the end of her and possibly the party to lose two referenda so quickly