Quote:
Originally Posted by Osem
I'd be tempted to call her bluff. Sturgeon's SNP are a one trick pony and right now the independence argument has never looked weaker (e.g. price of oil, losing Sterling, no EU membership) from where I'm sitting. Of course if, north of the border, they vote for independence good luck to them. At least we'll at last be able to concentrate on the affairs of those who wish to be part of the union not those who don't and whose idea of 'independence' is ceding ever more power to the EU.
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I think May should call her bluff. Rejecting the referendum is probably what Sturgeon wants as I imagine she would rather the case for independence be better than it is now before calling for the vote. She would rather wait and have Westminster vetoing the referendum as a tool to stir up further resentment of the UK Government.
That said it's still going to be close IMO. Polls have it at 50/50 roughly, the Nationalists will likely be far more motivated and united than the Unionists and the prospect of a Conservative Government until 2025/2030 will be a useful campaigning tool. The UK government will be focused on Brexit, Labour are nowhere and nor are the liberals. Unionism is weak at the moment.
If May consents and I had to put money on it, I would say they're going Independent. But if she doesn't I think the chances only increase, just at a later date.
If the EU really wanted to play hardball allowing Scotland to maintain the UK's EU membership would be a killer. They've said they won't and Spain are likely to object but imagine if they did.