Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman
And you assume it’ll be fine, as you always have. And always been wrong.
As I said. Vaccines nudge the dial, it doesn’t prevent the reality that a large and increasing number of infections results in a large and increasing number of hospitalisations and deaths.
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The two are linked; but the proportion of hospitalisations and deaths relative to cases has decreased significantly since the vaccination.
If you look at the numbers admitted (however that's worked out, it's been a fair test throughout) during Oct-Jan last winter compared to during May-July this year, positive tests were around 80k at the start of January and 50k in July, yet we were seeing 1000+ people die a day at the peak last winter and I think the recent peak is around 200, and that's a figure which fluctuates with reporting lag. In the case (which may well not reflect the actual figures) that without vaccines you'd maybe see 10% positive tests present to hospital but with you'd maybe see 0.1% that's reduced this by a factor of 100, but in the case of 50k positive tests a day, that's still 50 of those who will end up in hospital as opposed to 5000.
So yes, a larger number of positive tests will result in a larger number of hospitalisations, but a smaller number than before, and by some margin. And we probably wouldn't be able to take over 100k for a sustained period without seeing the same pressures in the NHS, unless it continued to be predominantly in school kids, but then, this trend can't peak for long.
It could well be fine, the increasing trend could also lead to more pressure and some restrictions again, only time will tell that.
But, if you look at the rate of change in case rates - from
here, but also attached - (effectively a second derivative, showing if the cases are accelerating or decelerating), today's figure is actually a slight curve off, more crucially, when we've seen this happen it's showing it's just off the peak. Again, half-terms, and actually getting the lid on the SW area will no doubt help with this, if people are getting the right test result now then this will help as they'll need to isolate instead of going to the pub, football, etc, or even school and infect others. It's a similar risk to asymptomatic spread but probably worse, if people go to places thinking they have a cold because their PCR result came back negative and then they cough all over the supermarket then loads of other people will get covid.