Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY
How long before someone seriously suggests that London should remain and the rest of the country leave the EU?
I don't know what people think this poll signifies, as London is not going to be voting on its own, is it?
Across the UK, the Brexit Party will lead by a country mile.
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The significance of regional polling in the Euro elections is that seats are handed out proportionate to the vote, on a region by region basis. London is one of those regions, and these poll results can be used to forecast how many seats each party would get.
London gets 8 seats, presently occupied by 1 UKIP, 4 Lab, 2 Con and 1 Green.
Basically I can't be bothered doing the maths but if the current polling is accurate it looks like Labour will be down to 2 seats, the Tories will be down to 1. How many everyone else gets will depend on the electoral formula that is used but Brexit and the Chukka-Tiggers will definitely get 1 each and I think it's just possible that Brexit might clinch a second. That leaves 3 ... whether Green and Lib Dem both get one, who knows, and who gets the other spare? Chukka possibly. In which case we end up with Lab 2, Brexit 2, CHUK 2, Con 1, Lib Dem 1. (or Grn 1).
That is a dramatic change from 2014, and surprisingly hits Labour harder in London than it hits the Tories.