Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDaddy
The chances of it being heads reduces every flip to, we're probably over due a biggie by now anyway,
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This is the gambler’s fallacy. The outcome of one coin toss doesn’t affect the outcome of any future toss. Every coin toss still has odds of 50/50. Even if you get 10 heads in a row, the odds on the 11th toss are still 50/50.
The odds of a major impact event can be calculated by looking at how often these things have happened in the past, but that’s all it is - an estimate of how many times something will happen in the future based on how many times it has happened in the past. If a once-in-a-century event doesn’t occur for 5 centuries, then we don’t assume an event is imminent, but we do perhaps recalculate the odds.