Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien
Yup but this time they're closer to other polls. It's certainly looking like it's neck and neck.
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Yougov may be closer in terms of the split between Yes and No, but that's only half the story. The other half of it is direction of travel, and Yougov has shown a very dramatic shift from No to Yes over a very short period of time, which has not been replicated by Survation or by Panelbase.
The issue of weighting is critical here, I think. Yougov has lessened the significance it attaches to voters who were born outside Scotland and this has caused the dramatic apparent fall in support for No. Whether this now makes all things equal with regards to the other polls, we won't know now until we get the actual referendum results.
I believe there is a TNS-BMRB poll coming this week. Their polls are conducted face to face, not across the internets, and are part of a wider market research project, so they may well catch a different set of opinions. It will be interesting to see whether they come up with something different than Yougov and Panelbase (and Survation?) which use a sample of internet volunteers.