Thread: Coronavirus
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Old 12-01-2022, 22:57   #1332
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris View Post
Context is everything (as is an appropriately-scaled graph).





On 6 January 2021 a case spike of almost 58,000 (rolling average) resulted in a peak rolling-average of deaths of around 1,200, 3 weeks after the new case peak.

On 6 January 2022 the rolling 7 day average of new cases peaked at a whopping 181,000. Now, we are likely still a fortnight from the death peak associated with that, however with the rolling average presently sitting at 238 it’s fanciful to think it’s going to get anywhere near where it did last year. For comparison, one week post-peak last year, rolling average deaths were 985, I.e. already 75% of the way to their peak. If we are similarly 75% of the way to the peak death rate associated with omicron, then we’re looking at a rolling 7-day average in the region of maybe 320. And that’s assuming deaths climb for the next two weeks at the same rate they did last January, which so far in this wave they simply have not done.

Chris, let us not also not forget that the official metric is still "death within 28 days of a positive test".


So anyone who dies, but has tested positive for covid in the preceding 28 days, counts as this. Even if their covid illness was mild or asymptomatic, and irrespective of how they have actually died.


It isn't surprising that with 100k+ positive tests a day for the last 2-3 weeks we're now seeing an increase in "deaths" but how many of those deaths were caused by covid?
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